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Morgan Hill land along the Uvas RiverHow is the Morgan Hill real estate market? This article will include data, trends and statistics for both houses/single family homes and condominiums/townhouses (in the second half of the article). Here’s a bit of what you’ll find in the latest monthly update for Morgan Hill’s single family housing market:

  • There has been some more winter cooling, but it’s still hotter than last year.
  • The sales to list price ratio for homes in January was 100.6%.
  • Active inventory grew, but it is still well below average.

The Morgan Hill Real Estate Market

If you’re looking to learn more about Coronavirus’ impact on real estate sales, please check my post on that subject. This month’s data gives us only a small window into the changes the pandemic has had on the market.

At the start of the pandemic here in Silicon Valley, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) paused the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. This will not affect current numbers, but will affect those previous months data.

The cities of Morgan Hill and Gilroy are usually a bit less in demand than parts of Santa Clara County which are either tech magnets or closer to these big businesses. So if most of the Silicon Valley has a sale price to list price ratio of anywhere from 100% to 105%, it’s generally lower here, making the home buying conditions calmer for weary buyers, though still a sellers market.

First up, the market profile from Altos Research – this is updated weekly, so check back often! You can also view the weekly newsletter through the link below, where you can also subscribe to receive this update every week in your inbox. Prefer a particular zip code instead? You can type in your desired zip in the “Search Anywhere” line and then request that particular weekly update by email.

Altos Research weekly report for all of Morgan Hill

Altos weekly report for 95037 only

Altos weekly report for 95038 only

Morgan Hill Real-Time Market Profile

The latest Altos update (February 16th) shows a slight increase of inventory, days on market beginning to slow again, and declining market action. The current market remains in a strong seller’s market.

Trends at a Glance for Single Family Homes in Morgan Hill

Below is a chart with basic info, but to see more information, you may click on this link to see the Real Estate Report for Morgan Hill. This January saw some clear cooling, but it remained a hotter market compared to this time last year. Compared to last month, sales fell by more than half, pending sales were stable, and available inventory grew. Homes regularly sold close to list price at 100.6% of asking, and properties took under a month to sell on average. It’s still an active seller’s market with high demand competing for a small pool of available homes, although it’s much milder than it was a few months ago.

Trends At a Glance Jan 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,257,500 (+14.6%) $1,097,500 $935,000 (+34.5%)
Average Price $1,309,880 (+9.0%) $1,201,370 $930,304 (+40.8%)
No. of Sales 22 (-56.0%) 50 19 (+15.8%)
Pending 35 (-2.8%) 36 35 (0.0%)
Active 34 (+17.2%) 29 43 (-20.9%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.6% (-1.2%) 101.8% 97.5% (+3.2%)
Days on Market 28 (+83.9%) 15 54 (-47.8%)
Days of Inventory 46 (+166.5%) 17 68 (-31.7%)

And the month before:

Trends At a Glance Dec 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,097,500 (-0.2%) $1,100,000 $948,800 (+15.7%)
Average Price $1,201,370 (+4.5%) $1,150,110 $1,053,610 (+14.0%)
No. of Sales 50 (-13.8%) 58 37 (+35.1%)
Pending 36 (-42.9%) 63 22 (+63.6%)
Active 29 (-21.6%) 37 59 (-50.8%)
Sale vs. List Price 101.8% (0.0%) 101.7% 98.4% (+3.5%)
Days on Market 15 (-10.7%) 17 42 (-63.0%)
Days of Inventory 17 (-5.9%) 19 48 (-63.6%)

 

Single Family Home Live charts from Altos Research

The following charts are from Altos Research, updated automatically each week, using data of homes available to purchase (not sold / closed sales), for the Morgan Hill real estate market. (I have a paid subscription to this service.)

Morgan Hill homes listed for sale by price quartile – interesting to see how the trends are distributed across the price tiers, following the same trends but earlier in the luxury tier and later in the entry-level. They all saw winter dips, rising through spring, and staying high in summer. In late autumn, the lower half of the market dips before all areas began to climb again into the new year.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Morgan Hill houses for sale average days on market:

It’s typical for luxury homes to stick around longer than the other quartiles, but right now they are moving surprisingly fast. The most affordable homes are currently taking the longest to sell, averaging around 150 days on market. The next price tier up, the lower third price tier, is selling much more quickly at around 120 days, and the highest priced tiers are the fastest at an average around 105 days. Remember to disregard the data from mid-March to mid-May 2020.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Inventory of single family homes available to purchase:

Inventory continued to shrink through last winter with a turnaround for spring trends in mid-March. Although the trends appear seasonally typical, what we’ve seen in 2020 is an average inventory that’s significantly lower than it was last year and which began plummeting ahead of the seasonally normal point of decline. Last autumn and this winter it appears to be aiming for record lows!

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Also, it should be noted that there’s a ton of new construction going on in the northern part of Morgan Hill.

Morgan Hill Condo Real-Time Market Profile

In the condo and townhome sector we find a market that’s distinctly hotter than the single family houses, according to Altos Research. As of the latest update (February 16th), this chart shows that the Morgan Hill Condo market is in a stable, strong seller’s market with high market action, low inventory, and speedy turnover.

Trends for the condo real estate market in Morgan Hill

There’s been some up and down giving mixed signals in the condo market for Morgan Hill, but overall it’s remained soundly in the seller’s favor. Inventory has grown a fraction from the month before, and remains only a third of what it was a year ago. Compared to a year ago the closed sales are barely a hair up, and they’ve fallen by more than half since the month before. Pending sales are, stable month-over-month and only half of what they were last year. Properties sold quickly averaging only 14 days on market and at 100.9% of list price.

Overall, the Morgan Hill real estate market for condos is a hot seller’s market where inventory can’t keep up with demand.

Trends At a Glance Jan 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $692,750 (-3.9%) $720,944 $766,974 (-9.7%)
Average Price $717,583 (+1.0%) $710,555 $754,114 (-4.8%)
No. of Sales (-57.1%) 14 (+20.0%)
Pending 11 (0.0%) 11 21 (-47.6%)
Active (+25.0%) 4 15 (-66.7%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.9% (-1.1%) 102.0% 99.7% (+1.2%)
Days on Market 14 (-24.9%) 18 180 (-92.3%)
Days of Inventory 25 (+191.7%) 9 90 (-72.2%)

And the month before:

Trends At a Glance Dec 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $720,944 (-6.4%) $770,000 $718,850 (+0.3%)
Average Price $710,555 (-5.4%) $751,277 $707,534 (+0.4%)
No. of Sales 14 (+55.6%) 9 12 (+16.7%)
Pending 11 (-31.3%) 16 12 (-8.3%)
Active (0.0%) 4 16 (-75.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 102.0% (+0.9%) 101.1% 98.4% (+3.6%)
Days on Market 18 (-51.9%) 38 76 (-75.8%)
Days of Inventory (-33.5%) 13 40 (-78.6%)

 

Condo and Townhouse Live charts from Altos Research

The Morgan Hill condo market

List prices by quartile:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

The lowest priced condos saw a significant price drop last winter where they remained for a good part of 2020. They are finally beginning to rise again this past autumn into winter. The other sectors followed seasonal patterns with steady gentle price rising until around April when all but the luxury market showed decline. They also saw increases around late autumn, but began to drop once more at the start of winter.

Average days on market:

This jumps all over the place, but right now everything but the luxury-tier are selling the fastest at an average of around a week or less on market. Remember to disregard data from March to May 2020.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Inventory:

Much like the single family housing market, condo and townhome inventory follows clear seasonal trends in 2019, rising steadily through 2019 until December where it began to shrink, beginning a rise again in spring of 2020. Also like the SFH market, 2020 inventory was no where near where it was a year ago and began an early nosedive in June. Inventory is still plummeting with all sectors well below their winter norms.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

What's nextWant to buy or sell a home in Morgan Hill? It’s a great community and I work there, too!  Please contact me for a no obligation, no cost, no pressure conversation to discuss your goals and how I may be able to assist you.