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Morgan Hill land along the Uvas RiverHow is the Morgan Hill real estate market? This article will include data, trends and statistics for both houses/single family homes and condominiums/townhouses (in the second half of the article). Here’s a bit of what you’ll find in the latest monthly update for Morgan Hill’s single family housing market:

  • The spring market is in full force and April remained hot with significantly more activity than last year.
  • The sales to list price ratio for homes in March was high at 105.7%.
  • Active inventory shrank and remains severely low.

The Morgan Hill Real Estate Market

If you’re looking to learn more about Coronavirus’ impact on real estate sales, please check my post on that subject. This month’s data gives us only a small window into the changes the pandemic has had on the market.

At the start of the pandemic here in Silicon Valley, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) paused the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th, 2020. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. This will not affect current numbers, but will affect those previous months data.

The cities of Morgan Hill and Gilroy are usually a bit less in demand than parts of Santa Clara County which are either tech magnets or closer to these big businesses. So if most of the Silicon Valley has a sale price to list price ratio of anywhere from 100% to 105%, it’s generally lower here, making the home buying conditions calmer for weary buyers, though still a sellers market.

First up, the market profile from Altos Research – this is updated weekly, so check back often! You can also view the weekly newsletter through the link below, where you can also subscribe to receive this update every week in your inbox. Prefer a particular zip code instead? You can type in your desired zip in the “Search Anywhere” line and then request that particular weekly update by email.

Altos Research weekly report for all of Morgan Hill

Altos weekly report for 95037 only

Altos weekly report for 95038 only

Morgan Hill Real-Time Market Profile

The latest Altos update (May 12th) shows a decrease of inventory, days on market speeding up, and rising market action. The current market remains in a strong seller’s market.

Trends at a Glance for Single Family Homes in Morgan Hill

Below is a chart with basic info, but to see more information, you may click on this link to see the Real Estate Report for Morgan Hill. This April was extremely active, and it remains a significantly hotter market compared to last year. Closed sales shot up from the month before, rising well above last year. While both pending sales and available inventory both shrank month-over-month, year-over-year pending sales have doubled while active listings have been halved. Homes regularly sold close to and often above list price at an average of 105.7% of asking, and in only 25 days. It’s an active seller’s market with high demand competing for a small pool of available homes.

Trends At a Glance Apr 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,325,000 (+10.6%) $1,197,500 $1,036,400 (+27.8%)
Average Price $1,421,900 (+4.9%) $1,355,810 $1,105,160 (+28.7%)
No. of Sales 74 (+94.7%) 38 28 (+164.3%)
Pending 78 (-3.7%) 81 39 (+100.0%)
Active 31 (-26.2%) 42 64 (-51.6%)
Sale vs. List Price 105.7% (-0.3%) 106.0% 100.1% (+5.6%)
Days on Market 25 (+23.4%) 20 19 (+29.7%)
Days of Inventory 12 (-63.4%) 33 66 (-81.7%)

And the month before:

Trends At a Glance Mar 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,197,500 (-10.3%) $1,335,000 $1,124,000 (+6.5%)
Average Price $1,355,810 (+3.6%) $1,309,100 $1,114,800 (+21.6%)
No. of Sales 38 (+65.2%) 23 32 (+18.8%)
Pending 81 (+52.8%) 53 38 (+113.2%)
Active 42 (+10.5%) 38 69 (-39.1%)
Sale vs. List Price 106.0% (+0.9%) 105.0% 101.2% (+4.7%)
Days on Market 20 (+13.4%) 18 29 (-30.7%)
Days of Inventory 33 (-25.7%) 45 65 (-48.7%)

 

Single Family Home Live charts from Altos Research

The following charts are from Altos Research, updated automatically each week, using data of homes available to purchase (not sold / closed sales), for the Morgan Hill real estate market. (I have a paid subscription to this service.)

Morgan Hill homes listed for sale by price quartile – interesting to see how the trends are distributed across the price tiers, following the same trends but earlier in the luxury tier and later in the entry-level. In 2020 they all saw winter dips, rising through spring, and staying high in summer. In late autumn, the lower half of the market dips before all areas began to climb again into the new year. But this winter saw no appreciable dip in most areas and climbed from December through March in all tiers! Since March all areas have begun to shrink again.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Morgan Hill houses for sale average days on market:

It’s typical for luxury homes to stick around longer than the other quartiles, but right now they are moving surprisingly fast. The upper priced (second tier) homes are currently taking the longest to sell, averaging around 145 days on market. The the lowest priced (fourth tier) homes, are selling fastest at around 90 days, with the highest priced (first tier) homes just behind. Remember to disregard the data from mid-March to mid-May 2020.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Inventory of single family homes available to purchase:

Inventory grew last year through summer and tapered off again into autumn and winter, bottoming out around February or March 2021. Although the trends appear seasonally typical, what we saw in 2020 was an average inventory that’s significantly lower than typical and which began plummeting ahead of the seasonally normal point of decline. Severely low inventory is making it even tougher on buyers in this strong seller’s market!

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Also, it should be noted that there’s a ton of new construction going on in the northern part of Morgan Hill.

Morgan Hill Condo Real-Time Market Profile

In the condo and townhome sector we find a market that’s distinctly hotter than the single family houses, according to Altos Research. As of the latest update (May 12th), this chart shows that the Morgan Hill Condo market is in a strong seller’s market with growing market action, extremely low inventory, and rapid turnover.

Trends for the condo real estate market in Morgan Hill

April saw significant warming in the condo market for Morgan Hill, and it’s remained soundly in the seller’s favor. Active inventory fell to extreme lows (only 3 listings), and closed sales have also plummeted below month-over-month and year-over-year numbers. Pending sales have risen above last month, but are also below last year! Despite shrinking sales and listings, properties sold lightning fast averaging only a week on market and sky high at 109.2% of list price.

Overall, the Morgan Hill real estate market for condos is a hot seller’s market where inventory can’t keep up with demand.

Trends At a Glance Apr 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $830,000 (+1.2%) $820,000 $650,000 (+27.7%)
Average Price $792,678 (+1.2%) $783,405 $617,250 (+28.4%)
No. of Sales (-57.1%) 21 12 (-25.0%)
Pending 15 (+36.4%) 11 20 (-25.0%)
Active (-57.1%) 7 19 (-84.2%)
Sale vs. List Price 109.2% (+4.5%) 104.5% 99.9% (+9.4%)
Days on Market (-42.8%) 12 33 (-78.9%)
Days of Inventory 10 (-3.3%) 10 46 (-78.9%)

And the month before:

Trends At a Glance Mar 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $820,000 (+14.7%) $715,000 $735,000 (+11.6%)
Average Price $783,405 (+9.0%) $718,571 $700,337 (+11.9%)
No. of Sales 21 (+200.0%) 7 10 (+110.0%)
Pending 11 (-38.9%) 18 24 (-54.2%)
Active (-22.2%) 9 22 (-68.2%)
Sale vs. List Price 104.5% (+2.3%) 102.2% 99.8% (+4.7%)
Days on Market 12 (-1.9%) 12 30 (-60.2%)
Days of Inventory 10 (-71.2%) 35 66 (-84.8%)

 

Condo and Townhouse Live charts from Altos Research

The Morgan Hill condo market

List prices by quartile:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

The lowest priced condos saw a significant price drop in winter 2019-2020 where they remained for a good part of 2020. They began to rise again from autumn into winter. Other price tiers followed seasonal patterns with steady gentle price rising until around April 2020 when all but the luxury market showed decline. They also saw increases around late autumn, but began to drop once more at the start of winter. Currently the lower priced sectors are seeing declines while the upper half of the market is climbing in value.

Average days on market:

This jumps all over the place, but right now the luxury-tier is selling the fastest at an average of around a 8 days on market with all but the lowest priced tier selling in under 50 days. Remember to disregard data from March to May 2020.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Inventory:

Much like the single family housing market, condo and townhome inventory follows clear seasonal trends in 2019, rising steadily through 2019 until December where it began to shrink, beginning a rise again in spring of 2020. Also like the SFH market, 2020 inventory was no where near where it was a year ago and began an early nosedive in June 2020. Inventory finally hit the bottom of this trend around the start of February 2021 with all sectors beginning to grow into spring.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

What's nextWant to buy or sell a home in Morgan Hill? It’s a great community and I work there, too!  Please contact me for a no obligation, no cost, no pressure conversation to discuss your goals and how I may be able to assist you.