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Morgan Hill land along the Uvas RiverHow is the Morgan Hill real estate market? This article will include data, trends and statistics for both houses/single family homes and condominiums/townhouses (in the second half of the article). Here’s a bit of what you’ll find in the latest monthly update for Morgan Hill’s single family housing market:

  • October had some up and down, but overall remained a red hot seller’s market, more competitive than last year despite a smaller pool of sales and inventory.
  • The sales to list price ratio for homes dipped to a red hot 104.6% of asking.
  • Homes sold in an average of just 19 days.

The Morgan Hill Real Estate Market

If you’re looking to learn more about Coronavirus’ impact on real estate sales, please check my post on that subject. This month’s data gives us only a small window into the changes the pandemic has had on the market.

At the start of the pandemic here in Silicon Valley, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) paused the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th, 2020. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. This will not affect current numbers, but will affect those previous months data.

The cities of Morgan Hill and Gilroy are usually a bit less in demand than parts of Santa Clara County which are either tech magnets or closer to these big businesses. So if most of the Silicon Valley has a sale price to list price ratio of anywhere from 100% to 105%, it’s generally lower here, making the home buying conditions calmer for weary buyers, though still a sellers market.

First up, the market profile from Altos Research – this is updated weekly, so check back often! You can also view the weekly newsletter through the link below, where you can also subscribe to receive this update every week in your inbox. Prefer a particular zip code instead? You can type in your desired zip in the “Search Anywhere” line and then request that particular weekly update by email.

Altos Research weekly report for all of Morgan Hill

Altos weekly report for 95037 only

Altos weekly report for 95038 only

Morgan Hill Real-Time Market Profile

The latest Altos update (November 20th) shows a steadily shrinking inventory, speeding days on market, and a stable market action. It’s still red hot this autumn and Morgan Hill remains in a strong seller’s market.

Trends at a Glance for Single Family Homes in Morgan Hill

Below is a chart with basic info, to see more click on this link to see the Real Estate Report for Morgan Hill. This October remained extremely active with some ups and downs month-over-month. Closed sales increased, pending sales dipped, and active inventory shrank from the month before. Compared to last year, closed sales, pending sales, and active inventory all fell well behind. That said, this time last year the market was rebounding from a low point brought on by the initial pandemic lockdown. Homes continue to sell more quickly than a year ago and with higher overbids. It’s an active seller’s market with high demand competing for a tiny pool of available homes.

Trends At a Glance Oct 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,455,000 (+9.8%) $1,325,000 $1,017,500 (+43.0%)
Average Price $1,591,830 (+9.6%) $1,452,620 $1,169,110 (+36.2%)
No. of Sales 47 (+46.9%) 32 66 (-28.8%)
Pending 59 (-3.3%) 61 71 (-16.9%)
Active 31 (-13.9%) 36 51 (-39.2%)
Sale vs. List Price 104.6% (-0.5%) 105.1% 100.8% (+3.7%)
Days on Market 19 (+73.4%) 11 23 (-17.4%)
Days of Inventory 20 (-39.3%) 33 23 (-14.6%)

 

Single Family Home Live charts from Altos Research

The following charts are from Altos Research, updated automatically each week, using data of homes available to purchase (not sold / closed sales), for the Morgan Hill real estate market. (I have a paid subscription to this service.)

Morgan Hill homes listed for sale by price quartile – interesting to see how the trends are distributed across the price tiers, following the same trends but earlier in the luxury tier and later in the entry-level. In 2020 they all saw winter dips, rising through spring, and staying high in summer. In late autumn, the lower half of the market dips before all areas began to climb again into the new year. But this winter saw no appreciable dip in most areas and climbed from December through March in all tiers! In March 2021 all areas began to shrink again, rising once again around July 2021 in all but the highest tier. As of September 2021, all but the bottom tier are climbing or stable.

Morgan Hill houses for sale average days on market:

It’s typical for luxury homes to stick around longer than the other quartiles, but right now they are moving surprisingly fast. Most price points are clustered together, taking roughly 55-70 days to sell. The top price tier homes, are selling significantly slower at around 80-90 days. Remember to disregard the data from mid-March to mid-May 2020.

Inventory of single family homes available to purchase:

Inventory grew last year through summer and tapered off again into autumn and winter, bottoming out around February or March 2021. Although the trends appear seasonally typical, what we saw in 2020 was an average inventory that’s significantly lower than typical and which began plummeting ahead of the seasonally normal point of decline. Severely low inventory is making it even tougher on buyers in this strong seller’s market!

Also, it should be noted that there’s a ton of new construction going on in the northern part of Morgan Hill.

Morgan Hill Condo Real-Time Market Profile

In the condo and townhome sector we find a market that’s hotter than the single family houses, according to Altos Research! As of the latest update, this chart shows that the Morgan Hill Condo market is in a strong seller’s market with elevated market action, severely low inventory, and spitfire turnover!

Trends for the condo real estate market in Morgan Hill

October experienced some ups and downs in the condo market for Morgan Hill, and overall it is clearly in the seller’s favor. Active inventory is only a drop in the bucket compared, not that there was much last month or last year! Closed sales soared month-over-month and year-over-year. Pending sales dropped to half of last month and less than half of last year. Properties sold more quickly than the month before, averaging a hot 21 days on market and above asking at 102.5% of list price.

Signs of autumn are in the air, yet it’s nowhere near being a balanced market – the Morgan Hill real estate market for condos is still a hot seller’s market where inventory can’t keep up with demand!

Trends At a Glance Oct 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $797,500 (-6.2%) $850,000 $645,000 (+23.6%)
Average Price $799,357 (-0.7%) $805,300 $685,048 (+16.7%)
No. of Sales 14 (+40.0%) 10 11 (+27.3%)
Pending (-50.0%) 14 16 (-56.3%)
Active (+50.0%) 2 (-40.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 102.5% (+0.2%) 102.3% 100.9% (+1.6%)
Days on Market 21 (-17.1%) 26 10 (+102.9%)
Days of Inventory (+10.8%) 6 14 (-52.9%)

 

Condo and Townhouse Live charts from Altos Research

The Morgan Hill condo market

List prices by quartile:

The lowest priced condos saw a significant price drop in winter 2019-2020 where they remained for a good part of 2020. They began to rise again from autumn into winter. Other price tiers followed seasonal patterns with steady gentle price rising until around April 2020 when all but the luxury market showed decline. They also saw increases around late autumn, but began to drop once more at the start of winter. By July 2021, all price sectors were climbing in value. After a slight August 2021 dip, the bottom tier tier began to drop while all other price points began to rise again into autumn!

Average days on market:

This jumps all over the place, but most price points have converged on roughly 5-20 days on market with the lower half of the market moving slightly slower than the upper half. Remember to disregard data from March to May 2020.

Inventory:

Much like the single family housing market, condo and townhome inventory follows clear seasonal trends in 2019, rising steadily through 2019 until December where it began to shrink, beginning a rise again in spring of 2020. Also like the SFH market, 2020 inventory was no where near where it was a year ago and began an early nosedive in June 2020. Inventory finally hit the bottom of this trend around the start of February 2021 with the ensuing spring growth flatlining compared to previous years! With barely any availability, by August 2021 the minimal inventory began to shrink again, dropping below the previous winter’s low by November 2021.

What's nextWant to buy or sell a home in Morgan Hill? It’s a great community and I work there, too!  Please contact me for a no obligation, no cost, no pressure conversation to discuss your goals and how I may be able to assist you.

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