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The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market is now clearly in transition. While it remains a strong seller’s market, things are beginning to cool off from where they were earlier this year.

First, some quick data from my RE Report via the bullets and chart below. There appears to be a small amount of undercounting or overcounting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, but the information is still good for tracking trends.

  • The August 2022 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes slipped again to 100.0% of asking (-1% from last month compared to -5% drop in July), and remains below last year for the third month in a row.
  • Average monthly home prices are down from a year ago for the first time since 2019
    • The median sale price is $1,400,000 (-5.4% from the month before, and -2.4% from a year ago)
    • The average sale price was $1,525,840 (-5.0% from the month before, and -2.0% from last year)
  • The days on market slowed again to an average of 3.5 weeks at 24 days, twice as long as last year

War, inflation, stock market, recession concerns – and real estate

Many of our home buyers are financially powered by tech stocks, stock options, and RSUs. When the stock market tanks, some buyers will rush to put their cash into real estate (the quip we often hear is that “real estate does not go to zero” and “at least you can live in it”.

For some, the rising interest rates combined with the lower stock values have been a double whammy on affordability in a market still seeing sky high prices. If the most amply capable buyers don’t want to sell their holdings at a 10% or more discount from what they were, that will impact how much they are willing to pay.

We are finally seeing signs of cooling in the market with homes recieving fewer offers than they may have at the peak of the market, and prices are coming down. That said, much of the entry-level market is still raging hot. The best homes, when appropriately priced and marketed, are still recieving multiple offers and selling well above asking.

However one thing is keeping the market hot: limited inventory. Nationwide, inventory has begun to drop again and overall we remain in a housing supply shortage (each market will vary, of course). So how far off are we from “normal” inventory levels? Let’s have a look at historic active listings in San Jose. (If the chart is too small, click to see in full size.)

San Jose Historic Active Inventory 2022-09-14

At the start of the chart, 2010, the market was still reeling from the 2008 recession, but by 2017 we were seeing a strong sellers market with record low inventory. While listings are certainly up from 2021’s rock-bottom lows, it’s still limited and well below that of more balanced market years like 2013 and 2014.

Will the shortage of homes lead to wild market action like earlier this year? Unlikely. With everything else that’s changed such as the interest rates rising. But will it continue to cool or will it heat up again in autumn? We’ll have to wait and see.

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

Trends At a Glance Aug 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,400,000 (-5.4%) $1,480,000 $1,435,000 (-2.4%)
Average Price $1,525,840 (-5.0%) $1,605,590 $1,557,630 (-2.0%)
No. of Sales 359 (+29.1%) 278 495 (-27.5%)
Pending 642 (+7.5%) 597 627 (+2.4%)
Active 469 (-21.0%) 594 357 (+31.4%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.0% (-1.0%) 101.0% 108.8% (-8.1%)
Days on Market 24 (+12.3%) 21 12 (+94.4%)
Days of Inventory 39 (-38.9%) 64 22 (+81.1%)

 

Please keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

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Mountain View CA real estate market trends and statistics

Mountain View CA real estate market trends and statistics on Mary Pope-Handy's Valley of Heart's Delight blogThe Mountain View CA real estate market was stronger than most of the valley in August, especially for single family homes.

Quick summary on the realty market in Mountain View, CA

  • Prices are up month-over-month and also year-over-year again
  • Properties are selling quickly with 19 days on the market, however, this is up from last month’s 18 days on the market.
  • The sales to list price ratio fell to 101.1%, down from 102.8% in July, 105.9% in June and from 109.1 a year ago.

The stock market has been up and down and interest rates appear to be ready to rise again, but many employers are asking their workers to return to the office. That is likely having a positive impact for Mountain View home sellers.

Overview of the city of Mountain View real estate market for houses:

First let’s have a look at the Real Estate Report with sales data taken directly from the MLS for residential sales.

Mountain View CA real estate market trends at a glance

Here’s the monthly housing chart from the RE Report

 

Trends At a Glance Aug 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,850,000 (+14.0%) $2,500,000 $2,729,000 (+4.4%)
Average Price $2,941,590 (+11.4%) $2,641,700 $2,640,200 (+11.4%)
No. of Sales 17 (-32.0%) 25 31 (-45.2%)
Pending 51 (+18.6%) 43 34 (+50.0%)
Active 18 (-30.8%) 26 20 (-10.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 101.1% (-1.7%) 102.8% 109.1% (-7.4%)
Days on Market 19 (+6.0%) 18 13 (+47.6%)
Days of Inventory 32 (+1.8%) 31 19 (+64.1%)

 

 

Mountain View CA real estate market trends and data by neighborhood or district

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Updating the Campbell Real Estate Market

Tudor style house on graphic that says - How's the Campbell real estate market?How is the Campbell real estate market? Campbell is in a strong seller’s market that was blazing hot earlier this year – but there’s been a good deal of cooling lately! This article, updated monthly, offers data and analysis on the residential real estate market within this popular Silicon Valley community. Here are a few details from the latest update on Campbell’s single family housing market:

  • The average sales to list price ratio for homes sold last month rose to 101.9% of asking. This 2.5% increase follows a crash in July leading to the lowest percentage seen since January 2020. Homes are selling less over asking (and sometimes under asking) and with fewer offers than last spring.
  • Prices are a little below last month and last year.
  • Average turnover raced to 13 days on market.
  • Data shows that August saw a drop in active inventory, with an increase in closed and pending sales.

The market in this popular west valley city appears to have warmed up a little, although it remains significantly cooler than it was earlier this year.

The Campbell, CA Real Estate Market

It’s hard to predict what’s coming next, especially since Silicon Valley real estate is connected to the global economy and many buyers rely on stocks to finance their purchase. On top of that, we’re emerging from an already atypical couple of years!

The market has not followed typical seasonal trends since before spring 2020, although we’re starting to see a bit more balance start to return in late spring of 2022. The charts below certainly show the impact of the pandemic on the real estate market, but we won’t see the full picture until it’s behind us. Read more about how the Coronavirus impacted real estate sales on my blog post about the topic.

If you’re selling a well prepared, beautifully staged, and aggressively priced house, you’ll likely see multiple offers on your home for sale. If it’s in an especially sought-after area and has good bones and a nice finish, the number of offers can create a bidding war. Competition is high enough that it’s pushing many buyers to make offers without any contingencies and above list price. For hot homes, desparate and worn out buyers sometimes spike prices well above list price just to get their foot in the door! However we’re also starting to see more worn out and priced-out buyers begin to exit the market and properties recieving fewer offers, or more contingent offers being accepted.

The market has been overdue for a correction and we’re beginning to see where this transitioning market might take us. Don’t expect a balanced market any time soon – California still has a housing shortage and buyers are still clamoring to get their foot in the door!

Here’s a quick view of the Campbell real estate market stats from Altos Research, using list prices (not sales price) which updates automatically about once per week:

Campbell Altos Real-Time Market Profile

The Altos chart is showing Campbell, CA single family homes in a strong seller’s market with a slight increase in market action following a dip. Inventory is shrinking dramatically again, but days on market are on the rise.

And now –  here are some quick stats, pulled from the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) through the RE Report:

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Cupertino Real Estate Market Trends and Statistics

Cupertino - view from Ridge VineyardsHow’s the Cupertino real estate market?

The Cupertino real estate market had a bit of a rebound in August as the sale price to list price ratio rose along with the number of sales. Home prices are off as compared to a year ago, and down a little from July (a month over month slip is not unusual for this time of the year).  Much of the county is seeing a price rollback of about 16 months.

Here are the most recent real estate statistics, via my Cupertino Real Estate Report.

Cupertino Real Estate market – Closed Sales and Trends at a Glance

(If you’re viewing the chart below on a mobile device, please swipe horizontally to see all columns.)

While the Cupertino real estate market has softened over the last couple of months, it’s still quite a strong market with most homes selling quickly and well over list price.

Trends At a Glance Aug 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,775,000 (+1.6%) $2,730,000 $2,850,000 (-2.6%)
Average Price $2,816,330 (-3.6%) $2,922,190 $2,994,720 (-6.0%)
No. of Sales 32 (+52.4%) 21 33 (-3.0%)
Pending 39 (-20.4%) 49 44 (-11.4%)
Active 27 (0.0%) 27 19 (+42.1%)
Sale vs. List Price 102.6% (+1.5%) 101.1% 113.3% (-9.4%)
Days on Market 22 (-0.1%) 22 15 (+47.9%)
Days of Inventory 25 (-34.4%) 39 17 (+46.5%)

 

Just now I ran the average sale price of single family homes in Cupertino from Jan 2016 to now. You can see that today’s average sale price is close to what it was in April  2021.

Home prices do rise and fall both. Please check out the average sale price in for various years and you’ll find dips in August 2018 and Aug 2020 as compared to the August the year before.

 

 Cupertino average house prices

 

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Milpitas real estate market

Milpitas Real Estate MarketThe Milpitas real estate market has calmed down from a record breaking seller’s market. Although it’s nowhere near what it was in spring, it is still a hot market. Here are a few points from the latest update to the Milpitas single family homes market, with more data and analysis in the article below:

  • August’s sale to list price ratio turned around. After a massive 8.6% dip to 97.3% in July, the lowest July SLP% we had seen in over a decade, August rose to 100.2%. Still significantly cooler than last year, but no longer in a free fall!
  • Time on market averaged at 21 days, speeding up from the last month and as fast as last year.
  • The average single family home price in August was $1,448,670 (down 11.2% from the month before, and 3.2% from a year ago)
  • The median sale price was $1,438,000 (down 12.8% from the month before, and up 2.2% from last year)
  • Inventory shrank, pending sales held steady, and closed sales nearly tripled

Prices may be down, but market activity is picking up again in Milpitas!

The Milpitas Real Estate Market

Milpitas is perpetually attractive for home buyers as the location is convenient and offers good schools. Many areas are close to the hills and enjoy scenic views, too.

So let’s look at some data. First up, the Altos charts using list price and active listings. It is updated automatically on a weekly basis, so check back often:

Altos Real-Time Market Profile, Milpitas

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The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update

Cambrian Park Real Estate Market graphicThe Cambrian Park real estate market is flattening, and for this part of San Jose generally,

  • Single family home prices are a little under what they were a year ago.
  • Houses are selling in about 3 weeks and over list price.
  • This climate makes it a good time to sell, but it’s also a much better time to buy than we’ve seen in years.
  • The condo market has softened month over month, but is much stronger than it was a year ago.

For those new to the area, Cambrian is most of the 95124 zip code (south of Foxworthy) and most of 95118 (west of Almaden Expressway). It borders Los Gatos, Campbell, Willow Glen, and Blossom Valley.

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market

Here is a good summary on the Cambrian real estate market. The RE Report is having some issues with reporting from the MLS, so this data may not be exact but we can still understand the current trends with this chart.

 

Trends At a Glance Aug 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,552,500 (+0.9%) $1,539,000 $1,626,000 (-4.5%)
Average Price $1,614,090 (-2.7%) $1,658,990 $1,658,120 (-2.7%)
No. of Sales 44 (-2.2%) 45 61 (-27.9%)
Pending 84 (+20.0%) 70 89 (-5.6%)
Active 39 (-35.0%) 60 37 (+5.4%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.2% (-1.6%) 101.8% 110.2% (-9.1%)
Days on Market 22 (-0.6%) 22 11 (+96.0%)
Days of Inventory 27 (-33.5%) 40 18 (+46.1%)

If you’ve been wondering when will housing prices drop, the answer is now. It’s a wonderful time to buy as prices are down significantly from the peak a few months ago.

Cambrian Park Altos Research Charts

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Willow Glen real estate market in San Jose

Willow Glen real estate market is a strong seller's market. This Willow Glen sign is from the downtown business district.The Willow Glen real estate market in San Jose is showing had a bit of a rally in August, some with slippage reversing itself and many more homes selling while inventory fell.

The realty market in this part of San Jose is close to balanced.

  • Home prices have been continuing to slip and are now lower than a year ago but a little higher than
  • Homes are quicker to sell, now averaging 23 days
  • The sale to list price ratio rose back over 100%

The best priced homes with no location or condition issues continue to sell quickly. Some properties that are taking a long time to sell have moved into “buyer’s market” territory.

Willow Glen Real Estate Market Trends: Single Family Homes

The Willow Glen real estate market has cooled to the point where homes are now selling for under list price on average. This is a trend reversal. The average sale price is above last year’s pricing, but Willow Glen houses sold prices are now averaging under $2 million.

Click for the complete Willow Glen real estate report:

Trends At a Glance Aug 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,800,000 (+0.1%) $1,797,500 $1,965,000 (-8.4%)
Average Price $1,952,260 (+0.5%) $1,943,060 $1,997,890 (-2.3%)
No. of Sales 54 (+68.8%) 32 50 (+8.0%)
Pending 66 (-5.7%) 70 62 (+6.5%)
Active 62 (-18.4%) 76 38 (+63.2%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.5% (+2.0%) 98.5% 107.9% (-6.8%)
Days on Market 23 (-4.4%) 24 12 (+85.9%)
Days of Inventory 34 (-51.7%) 71 23 (+51.1%)

 

 

Below please find a market profile and then a couple of charts for the real estate market for houses and duet homes (attached single family homes – not duplexes), care of Altos Research, to which I have a subscription. Altos uses list prices, not sold prices. The data is automatically updated each week, so please bookmark this post and come back often!


Data from Altos Research for Willow Glen Real Estate Trends – San Jose 95125

In the latest update, Altos says single family homes are in a strong seller’s market with declining market action, and a slight increase in perpetually low inventory. With 34% of the homes having a price reduction, the market is clearly softening. The percentage of homes with prices decreased is a big indicator of the market’s direction.

 

Willow Glen Real-Time Market Profile

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Sunnyvale real estate market trends & statistics

The Sunnyvale real estate market is continuing to cool with longer days on market and lower sale prices. It’s still a seller’s market, though a much milder one, as homes sell in 23 days on average.

Sunnyvale real estate market  trends and stats at a glance

Here is a quick data table with the trends at a glance for the Sunnyvale real estate market:

PLEASE visit our ReReport page for data here, throughout Santa Clara County, and also for San Mateo and Santa Cruz Counties.

(If you’re viewing this on a mobile phone, swipe horizontally to see the full chart if it goes off the screen.)

 

Trends At a Glance Aug 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,000,000 (-14.0%) $2,325,000 $2,194,000 (-8.8%)
Average Price $2,008,890 (-14.2%) $2,340,200 $2,152,440 (-6.7%)
No. of Sales 35 (-12.5%) 40 46 (-23.9%)
Pending 79 (0.0%) 79 78 (+1.3%)
Active 42 (+10.5%) 38 35 (+20.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 99.4% (-3.2%) 102.7% 114.0% (-12.8%)
Days on Market 23 (+51.5%) 15 13 (+76.7%)
Days of Inventory 36 (+26.3%) 29 23 (+57.7%)

 

The Sunnyvale average house price is still more than 2 million.  The Sunnyvale house price trend is dipping and may soon be under $2 million if this continues.

You may also want to see how Sunnyvale stacks up to other communities in Santa Clara County. If so, click to see the PDF Real Estate Report for Santa Clara County, updated monthly.

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Seller rent back after close of escrow: what do you need to know?

Forms Vary for Seller Rent Backs!If you are buying or selling a home in Silicon Valley today, you may be considering including the option to have a “seller rent back” after close of escrow. What does this mean? This is often referred to as “seller in possession after close of escrow” (often shortened to SIP) or “seller occupancy after sale”, or for more than 29 days, the “residential lease after sale” (RLAS)  and it’s not uncommon in the San Jose or San Francisco Bay Area now.

Most of all, a rent back means that after the sellers have been paid and the new owner is on record, the seller stays on as a tenant and the buyer takes on the role of a landlord. The buyer as the new owner will carry home owner’s insurance (mandatory if there is a mortgage – the lender will insist) and gets a set of keys.

The terns for this tenancy relationship are drawn out in a separate addendum to the purchase contract. Depending on how long the term will be (less or more than 30 days) and which purchase agreement form is used (PRDS or CAR) the paperwork varies a bit. Whichever form you use and whichever side of the rentback you are on, here are some key points to keep an eye on:

  • Amount of security deposit, if any
  • Amount of rent being charged, if any
  • Length of the rent back or lease (most buyers have loans, and most lenders start attaching fees to rentbacks longer than 29 days and do not permit more than 60 days or they consider the property “non-owner occupied” – if you aren’t careful, you could walk into an expensive mistake here!)
  • Who will pay for things like gardening, utilities, pool maintenance, and HOA fees, if any
  • Who will hold the deposit (the buyer or the escrow company?)
  • Under what circumstances the new owner can enter the property

When the market is super over-heated like it is today, we tend to see nominal security deposits and free, no-cost rent backs. Usually the tenant (seller) takes care of utilities, garden, pool maintenance. (more…)

Coronavirus impact on real estate sales

Graphic of a house under quarantineThis post on the coronavirus impact on real estate sales here in Silicon Valley is updated periodically, depending on unfolding events, so please check back often.

The market for houses is hot (still)

The coronavirus pandemic caused a worldwide surge of buyers rushing to purchase homes with more square footage, more rooms (home office, room for elderly parents to move in), and more outside space.

Locally, single family home prices rose about 20% over one year, despite the initial lockdown and restrictions on showings. Pools had not been so desirable pre-Covid, but now they are more sought after as buyers want to vacation at home.

Initially, it was challenging to sell a condo or townhouse, particularly if there was no patio, balcony, yard, etc. Those homes did start appreciating, but have not performed nearly as well as detached housing has.

Now, in September 2021, many of the requirements have been lifted. Buyers are still interested, but the steep appreciation has priced some buyers out of the market.

Quick overview of what is and isn’t allowed with real estate listings and sales

The landscape for home sales is complicated and more restricted than pre-pandemic times, but easier than it was in March – May 2020. The market is strange in many ways, but it is possible to buy and sell now and actually is not so hard at this point.

What’s changed with Covid: (more…)