The Santa Clara County real estate market is continuing in the trajectory we’ve seen for the last few months: prices are rising and market conditions are increasingly heating up month over month. The gap between last year’s prices and this year’s prices is shrinking. If this continues, it won’t take long until we are ahead (for the same month, but not as compared to the peak). Those focusing only on last year’ higher prices are missing the main point – the bottom is behind us!
The May average single family home prices are up compared to April, but down compared to the same time in 2022 (last month it was 8.9%, but in May it was at 7.6%).
The sale price to list price ratio strengthened further to 105.4% in May from 104.8 in April and 102.7% in March.
Listings are up, but sales are up more. It’s a hot market in most segments of the valley.
Here’s a quick summary of the Santa Clara County real estate market from our RE Report
The Blossom Valley housing market remained hot through May, although it’s nowhere near as hot as it was a year ago. Homes in good shape which are priced appropriately continue to sell at or above list price, but overbids have significantly decreased in quantity and value as the market has cooled. While trends can vary based on price point, schools, zip codes, etc., the entire area is still in high demand.
This article contains the latest monthly updates for the residential real estate market in San Jose’s Blossom Valley area. A few points from the single family housing market this month include:
May’s average price dipped -3.3% and median closed sales price fell -9.3% from last month, but fell -15.6% and -14.0% respectively from last year.
The average listing took just 10 days to sell. Anything under a month is considered a strong average, so this is lighting fast and has been stable at this pace for 2 months.
The sales to list price ratio dipped to 105.4%.
Inventory shrank while pending and closed sales grew month-over-month, with significantly less inventory and sales compared to last year.
Compared to this time last year, the Blossom Valley market has softer prices and overbids, but buyers continue to compete against severely low inventory. It’s still a great market for sellers and tough on buyers.
About Blossom Valley
The Blossom Valley area of San Jose is on the south end of the city and covers the 95123 and 95136 zip codes. For our MLS, it’s “area 12.” A more affordable section of Silicon Valley, it has much to offer in addition to more reasonable housing prices. Many areas enjoy views of the Santa Teresa Foothills or the Communications Hill knolls or even the coastal foothills in the distance, as with the photo above. One corner of it sits alongside beautiful Almaden Lake, too. Another corner is located at the crossroads of Highways 85 and 87, making it an easy commute destination for those working in downtown San Jose. And there’s an abundance of shopping and dining opportunities.
Now for some market data.
Live Altos Reports
We’ll start with the Altos Reports, which gague the market based on active listings, not sales, and is updated about once per week.
95123 real estate market trends, automatically updated weekly:
The Bellgrove neighborhood in Saratoga, California, is an attractive, newer subdivision in a convenient location with Saratoga schools. It is highly sought after for all of those reasons.
Bellgrove neighborhood houses
Most homes and yards are very well tended, even pristine. Only a couple looked like they could use a little paint or get their front yards tidied up a little. This community is really quite beautiful. Often when communities look this good it’s because of the HOA’s enforcement and the HOA dues. There’s no Homeowner’s Association (HOA) enforcing aesthetics, it’s just the pride of ownership at work.
What will you find at Bellgrove? Here are some key features in this luxury neighborhood.
Quick facts:
There are 94 homes in this subdivision
The homes were build by Greenbrier in 1996 (date per county records)
All of the houses provide 5 bedrooms
All of them have 3 full bathrooms
All enjoy 3 car garages
All are 2 stories – no single story homes available
There are 3 floorplans, with the smallest offering 2900 SF and the largest 3139 SF
Lots run from 5803 SF to 11,154 SF (the older house, not part of the tract, has just over 18,000 SF)
The neighborhood includes a large greenbelt area, a playground, and a par course up against the freeway
The Bellgrove neighborhood is within the boundaries of highly desired school districts: the Saratoga Union School District (K-8) and the Los Gatos Saratoga Union High School District
Most homes do not have pools – just 11 of the 94 do.
Most homes are owner occupied – only 7 are rented out.
The Heritage Grove neighborhood in Los Gatos had an interesting beginning. An old apricot orchard used to line Blossom Hill Road between Union and Leigh Avenues until the 1990s. The former owners, Ralph and Sophie Heintz, lived there in their farmhouse until their deaths, at which time the property was willed to the University of California at Berkeley for eye research.
Sophie and Ralph were interesting people. He ran a small train on their property and was an inventor. She was a ham radio operator.
In 1998, the Heintz land (and house etc.) was sold to Summerhill Homes and a portion developed as housing by Summerhill. A few of the homes higher up in the neighborhood were built by different builders. That Los Gatos neighborhood is now called the Heritage Grove neighborhood.
A strip of trees was planted along Blossom Hill Road, reminiscent of the history of the area. A wonderfully large section of land was made a permanent open space, now known as the Heintz Open Space Preserve. This open space connects directly with Belgatos Park, which also connects with the Santa Rosa Open Space Preserve. So the network of trails is quite extensive. (Link to Town of Los Gatos page with pdf files of these three trail maps. Link to Google Maps map of Blossom Hill Trails, drawn by Jim Handy.)
In 2015, we did a video drive through of the Heritage Grove neighborhood. Please take a look:
The Shasta Hanchett Park neighborhood in central San Jose is much beloved for its architectural charm and close-in location. There’s a wide variety of architectural styles to be found there – and not many ranch style houses. A large percentage of the houses have front porches, some with deep overhangs. Together with tree lined streets and sidewalks, it’s a welcoming feeling community and a scenic one.
What are the homes like in the Shasta Hanchett Park neighborhood?
Home styles include Craftsman of various kinds (Bungalow, Prairie), Victorian, Spanish Eclectic, Mission Revival, Cottage, Tudor, Art Deco, Colonial, and some that look almost like ranch but defy a neat category. Some areas will feature several of the same style homes in a row. Part of Shasta Avenue, for example, has a group of Victorian homes. Many homes look much the same as originally intended from the front but have been extensively remodeled inside, and the county may show the construction date as 2002 or something similar.
Some of the homes have basements. Many have detached garages. In some cases, the power lines are in front by the sidewalk, but most of the time they are along the back fences.
Most of these Shasta Hanchett neighborhood houses were designed as middle class homes. The houses and lots are not as large as some of the homes found along University Avenue in the Rose Garden.
The Shasta Hanchett Park neighborhood (and the Hester area) includes about 1165 single family homes, 128 condominiums or townhomes, and 78 other residential buildings, including small apartment buildings, duplexes – fourplexes, etc. I pulled this data from the county records and it is approximate.
Seventy percent of the houses in this part of the city were built in the very late 1800s through the 1940s per my study of the county records. One is said to have been built in 1890 and 38 were said to be built in 1900. By the way, often when the county records say 1900 it’s code for “1900 or older, we don’t really know”.
Development continued through the forties, fifties, and so on. While there’s a mix of ages, it’s a large contingent of historic homes. Most are in beautiful condition and impeccably well tended.
Some of the streets are narrow, and parking on both sides is disallowed for that reason. Martin Avenue enjoys a long stretch where it’s both extremely wide and also is lined with tall palm trees. Other streets offer a variety of trees and some feature a deep canopy of sycamore trees.
Los Altos is a scenic town, semi-rural, conveniently located, with notably good schools (Los Altos or Cupertino schools). The charming old style downtown enjoys superior restaurants, shops, and is a pleasant place to stroll. The town enjoys a community college and a golf course. Its a great place for pedestrians and cyclists (lots of paths), and is a quick jaunt to both Palo Alto and Mountain View, both very popular peninsula destinations.
There’s a brief history of Los Altos on that city’s website that I found interesting. First, the land that started the community was originally 140 acres purchased from Sarah Winchester. Second, Foothill Expressway used to be a right of way for the Southern Pacific Railroad. The train line ceased operations in 1964, and the expressway was put in. Love local history from the Valley of Heart’s Delight? The Los Altos History Museum is a worthwhile destination.
The zip codes don’t stay within the city’s boundaries. Both 94022 and 94024 can be found in Los Altos and adjacent Los Altos Hills.
Los Altos Real Estate Market Conditions
Below please find first information from Altos Research, and then from the RE Report (I have subscriptions to both). Altos’ data is for the city and by zip codes. It uses list prices and its charts and reports are updated automatically each week. The RE Report uses data for each full month and provides it for the city as a whole and also by four distinct regions or neighborhoods. Both reports offer a subscription option if you click on the links.
The next 3 charts are from Altos Research and they are updated weekly, so check back often! You can see the weekly report, with even more data, by visiting the link. Subscribe for Los Altos, for one of its zip codes, or anywhere else nearby by first entering the desired zip or city in the “Search Anywhere” button and then clicking on subscribe.
Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose
How’s the Santa Teresa real estate market? The scenic Santa Teresa area of San Jose is popular as it’s a bit more affordable, offering lovely views of the hills and public schools that seem to be improving over time making the area more desirable. These positives appear to be helping that district hold its value well. Here are a few details from the latest monthly market update for Santa Teresa single family homes (read the full analysis below):
Both the single family and condo / townhouse market are seller’s markets with extremelylow available inventory, per the latest monthly data.
For single family homes
Average and median sale prices are up monthly and down annually
Homes are selling fast with days on market speeding to just 1 week and market absorption coming in at just 18 days
The number of closed and pending sales far exceed available inventory
For condominiums and townhomes
Average and median sale prices are up significantly month-over-month and year-over-year! But with just 4 sales for April’s data, one or two higher-end sales may make waves in this chart without being indicative of any real market change
Sales slowed with days on market taking over 1.5 months, however market absorption is showing a quicker 36 day turnover
With just 4 sales generating all of April’s sales data, don’t put too much stock in these wild swings!
Santa Teresa (our MLS Area 2) includes a small bit of the 95123 zip code, which is more expensive, but most of that zip code is Blossom Valley, so we will omit it. The 95138 zip code is about half Santa Teresa and half Evergreen (more expensive area), so take those numbers with a big grain of salt. I find the 95119 zip code to be most helpful, but even then, the school district is divided between Oak Grove and Morgan Hill.
Weekly update from Altos Research with a “market profile” of San Jose’s Santa Teresa area, zip code 95119 for single family homes / houses:
When there’s not enough data, the fields will be blank.
The Santa Clara Women’s Club (old adobe house) http://www.santaclarawomansclub.org/
The real estate market in the city of Santa Clara, like the rest of Silicon Valley, is one which continues to be impacted by low inventory and high demand. After a slightly cooler winter, April’s sales data shows increasing market heat with clear spring warming and strong interest in this city.
The April sale to list price ratio continued it’s climb to 109.8%, averaging well over asking price.
Closed sales and active inventory hardly moved month-over-month with only slight growth in pending sales.
Time to sell barely budged averaging just 14 days on market, while the average days of inventory (or market absorption) held stable at 26 days.
Prices rose month-over-month, but fell approximately 10% – 14% below this time last year.
Prices in Santa Clara rose astronomically through 2021 and in the first half of 2022. I grew up in that city and was amazed to see that the average and median sales price was hovering around $2 million the first half of last year! In summer 2022 it finally started to come down, and by autumn prices finally began to drop below what we saw in 2021. Spring 2023 is seeing prices rise again, but nowhere near this time last year.
The Real Estate Market for the City of Santa Clara
Below there are charts for the market activity over the last few months for single family homes in Santa Clara. Market activity has been high for years, but began to cool down last summer with some ups and downs since. Low inventory across the valley means there is still a greater demand to fill than properties available. Further down in the article, we’ll check in on the condo market, too.
According to Altos, it’s a strong seller’s market with market action is on the rise and severely low inventory with little growth.
Data from my Real Estate Report
Next, stats at a glance for the Santa Clara real estate market for single family homes.
Demand remains high, however buyers don’t have the same purchasing power that they had in 2021 or early 2022 and many have become more choosy or have dropped out of the competition entirely. Many homeowners are unwilling to part with their properties and low mortgage rates in the current market environment, so available inventory remains low.
How is the Monte Sereno real estate market? Because the city is small, with just about 3,500 residents, there usually are few homes listed for sale or selling, and with small numbers we can get seeming volatility. This article is updated monthly with new data and analysis, so scroll down to read the latest and check back regularly. Here are a few details from the latest market update:
With so few sales and listings, data can swing quite wildly in the charts below so take it with a grain of salt.
This city is currently in a seller’s market with low inventory, just 6 available homes at the end of April.
Sales grew month-over-month and are equivalent to this time last year.
There are ALMOST no condominiums or townhomes in Monte Sereno. As of February 2023, the MLS showed just 6 sales in these two categories in total – and that’s going back to 1998! And one of those, at least, appears to actually be in Los Gatos. One of the major challenges for this city is to ensure that at least some housing units are deemed “affordable.” You can find the city’s housing plan here (an online pdf): http://www.montesereno.org/DocumentCenter/Home/View/674
Below is a quick market profile for Monte Sereno. This is updated automatically weekly, so please check back often.
Is it a good time to sell a home in Silicon Valley? One of the best ways to get a pulse on the real estate market with an eye to selling or buying is with the months of inventory (MOI), also known as the absorption rate. This is the months of supply of housing for sale.
The months of inventory tells us how fast the current inventory of properties will be sold off if sales were to continue at the same rate with no new inventory were to come on the market.
The easiest analogy is with a bathtub full of water. If we added no more water to the tub, and the drain were opened, how much time would it take for the water to be depleted if it continued to empty at the same rate? That’s the question being answered with the absorption rate of inventory.
Or, simpler still, if you have an hourglass that you turn over, how long does it take for the sand to empty from the top (since you cannot add more sand to that end)?
How to calculate the months of inventory or MOI
The way to calculate the months of inventory is simple: find the current available inventory of homes for sale (not under contract or sale pending), then find the number of homes with that exact criteria which have closed escrow in the last 30 days. Divide the first by the second and you get the months of inventory. Or, I can just use the stats program on the MLS to generate that number, as I did today.
Earlier I pulled this data from MLSListings.com, our local MLS association (of which I am a member) and I ran the numbers for single family homes (houses and duet homes) in Cupertino, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Mountain View, Palo Alto, San Jose (all areas combined), Santa Clara, Saratoga, Sunnyvale. Separately, I also ran this same query for the City of San Jose by district.
The months of inventory by city or town in Santa Clara County
A balanced market for our area is 2-3 months of inventory (for most of the US it’s 4-6 months). Two months or less is a seller’s market, and one month or less is a very hot seller’s market.
Here’s a look at the months of inventory by city or town in SCC in April 2023 for single family homes. As you can see, the vast majority of the county is a strong seller’s market, with the only exception being Los Altos Hills.
Which are the hottest markets? They’re the ones with the smallest months of inventory -Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, Cupertino, Milpitas and many more are well under the 2 month market. A few are a tad higher and in the “balanced market” area, and only one is in a deep buyer’s market.
The months of inventory by area within the City of San Jose
Christie's International Real Estate Sereno, Los Gatos, CA 95030 408 204-7673 Mary@PopeHandy.com License# 01153805
Clair Handy, Realtor
GREEN
Christie's International Real Estate Sereno 214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd Los Gatos, CA 95030 ClairHandy@sereno.com License# 02153633
Mary & Clair sell homes throughout Silicon Valley: Santa Clara County, San Mateo County, and Santa Cruz County. with a special focus on: San Jose, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Campbell, Almaden Valley, Cambrian Park.
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