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The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market is now clearly in transition. While it remains a strong seller’s market, things are beginning to cool off from where they were earlier this year.

First, some quick data from my RE Report via the bullets and chart below. There appears to be a small amount of undercounting or overcounting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, but the information is still good for tracking trends.

  • The August 2022 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes slipped again to 100.0% of asking (-1% from last month compared to -5% drop in July), and remains below last year for the third month in a row.
  • Average monthly home prices are down from a year ago for the first time since 2019
    • The median sale price is $1,400,000 (-5.4% from the month before, and -2.4% from a year ago)
    • The average sale price was $1,525,840 (-5.0% from the month before, and -2.0% from last year)
  • The days on market slowed again to an average of 3.5 weeks at 24 days, twice as long as last year

War, inflation, stock market, recession concerns – and real estate

Many of our home buyers are financially powered by tech stocks, stock options, and RSUs. When the stock market tanks, some buyers will rush to put their cash into real estate (the quip we often hear is that “real estate does not go to zero” and “at least you can live in it”.

For some, the rising interest rates combined with the lower stock values have been a double whammy on affordability in a market still seeing sky high prices. If the most amply capable buyers don’t want to sell their holdings at a 10% or more discount from what they were, that will impact how much they are willing to pay.

We are finally seeing signs of cooling in the market with homes recieving fewer offers than they may have at the peak of the market, and prices are coming down. That said, much of the entry-level market is still raging hot. The best homes, when appropriately priced and marketed, are still recieving multiple offers and selling well above asking.

However one thing is keeping the market hot: limited inventory. Nationwide, inventory has begun to drop again and overall we remain in a housing supply shortage (each market will vary, of course). So how far off are we from “normal” inventory levels? Let’s have a look at historic active listings in San Jose. (If the chart is too small, click to see in full size.)

San Jose Historic Active Inventory 2022-09-14

At the start of the chart, 2010, the market was still reeling from the 2008 recession, but by 2017 we were seeing a strong sellers market with record low inventory. While listings are certainly up from 2021’s rock-bottom lows, it’s still limited and well below that of more balanced market years like 2013 and 2014.

Will the shortage of homes lead to wild market action like earlier this year? Unlikely. With everything else that’s changed such as the interest rates rising. But will it continue to cool or will it heat up again in autumn? We’ll have to wait and see.

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

Trends At a Glance Aug 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,400,000 (-5.4%) $1,480,000 $1,435,000 (-2.4%)
Average Price $1,525,840 (-5.0%) $1,605,590 $1,557,630 (-2.0%)
No. of Sales 359 (+29.1%) 278 495 (-27.5%)
Pending 642 (+7.5%) 597 627 (+2.4%)
Active 469 (-21.0%) 594 357 (+31.4%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.0% (-1.0%) 101.0% 108.8% (-8.1%)
Days on Market 24 (+12.3%) 21 12 (+94.4%)
Days of Inventory 39 (-38.9%) 64 22 (+81.1%)

 

Please keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

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Almaden homes for sale

Almaden Homes for Sale - two story house in San Jose's Almaden Valley, 95120Browse Almaden homes for sale here! This scenic part of San Jose, which mostly follows the 95120 zip code, sits nestled between the coastal mountain range and the Santa Teresa foothills.

If you are just getting to know this South San Jose area, you might want to begin by reading this article first:
What are the advantages of buying a home in Almaden Valley?

Many Silicon Valley home buyers are looking for new construction, but the best land in Santa Clara County was built up decades ago, so there are not many new homes in Almaden Valley, San Jose.

Pricing comments for the Almaden homes for sale

The Almaden homes for sale with Leland High School tend to sell for more than those with other schools as it is so high scoring, however, all of the public schools in Almaden Valley are good! One of the most affordable neighborhoods for that part of 95120 is Creekside Almaden. At the end of that article you can see any Creekside Almaden homes for sale.

Other factors that will impact the sale price are views, as some homes enjoy some elevation or have particularly stunning vistas, as well as the home’s  size, condition, lot size, landscaping, and other typical elements.

Each month we update the Almaden Valley real estate market conditions, so you may want to bookmark it and visit often.

Listings now available in 95120: Almaden homes for sale

These will include everything showable in the 95120 zip code, including the prized New Almaden homes for sale. The most recently added Almaden homes for sale will appear first. Please also read “an important word about the total number of listings” below, as feeds such as this one may only show a large percentage, but not all, available houses, townhouses, or condominiums to buy.

  • List View
  • Map View
  • Grid View

See all Almaden area of San Jose, California Real Estate.
(all data current as of 9/26/2022)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

 
 

 

An important word about the total number of listings and what is displayed here

 

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Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions

Almaden View Real Estate Market Conditions San Jose 95120 - photo with Mt Umunhum in backgroundThe Almaden Valley real estate market is cooling, as is the rest of Silicon Valley, but sales have been picking up while inventory is shrinking, so it moved more into the sellers’ favor despite pricing.

Here are a few data points from the latest update, which you will find in more detail below:

  • The August home prices were similar to one year ago, but a little less.
  • The sale to list price ratio fell to under 100% and now sits at 97.8% – sellers who are successful are often not getting their list price.
  • Days on market are a brisk 21. Realistic sellers are selling fast!

Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions: Trends at a Glance

Next, a look at the residential real estate market statistics for Almaden, or San Jose 95120 from the Real Estate Report (a subscription that uses closed / sold data). They’re having a bit of a technical issue with their data collection, so not every number is exactly correct, however it is still a useful tool for market analysis.

Trends At a Glance Aug 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,917,500 (-15.7%) $2,275,000 $1,920,010 (-0.1%)
Average Price $1,969,150 (-23.3%) $2,566,140 $2,029,700 (-3.0%)
No. of Sales 20 (+42.9%) 14 31 (-35.5%)
Pending 43 (+34.4%) 32 29 (+48.3%)
Active 37 (-9.8%) 41 21 (+76.2%)
Sale vs. List Price 97.8% (-5.5%) 103.6% 108.8% (-10.1%)
Days on Market 21 (+0.7%) 21 11 (+83.4%)
Days of Inventory 56 (-36.8%) 88 20 (+173.1%)

 

Altos Research charts for Almaden Valley real estate market, single family homes segment (more…)

Selling a home in Almaden Valley, San Jose – best tips!

Selling a home in Almaden Valley - foundation and drainage are keyAre you selling a home in Almaden Valley, San Jose, within the next year? There are things that you can do to enhance your home’s value and your ultimate net from the sale.

#1 tip for selling a home in Almaden Valley, San Jose

In addition to the basics for every home seller of correct pricing, fixing, cleaning, decluttering, replacing floor coverings and paint as needed and providing a complete disclosure package with pre-sale inspection, there is one extremely important facet to focus on in 95120:

  • Foundation & drainage work is KEY!  This is the number one issue that is fairly unique to Almaden as an issue.  Find out if your crawl space has any moisture intrusion either now or seasonally and if so, consider mitigating it as these items can scare buyers off or cause them to lowball their offers. (You may want to hire a home or pest inspector to check the entire crawl space for you.) Probably 90% of homes in Almaden have this problem and it should not be ignored as it can lead to expensive foundation repairs, mold, cupping of hardwood floors in the living space, and more.
    • Most home owners are not directing the water away from their homes at the downspouts, and that is part of the problem in many cases.
    • You may need to employ a foundation and drainage contractor for guidance and implementation, depending on what is discovered when your crawl space is checked
    • Even if you don’t get the work done, having a bid for what’s needed is a huge help. The reason is that whatever a cost might be, most buyers believe it will cost 3 -5x that amount. Providing the actual cost will build buyer confidence and lessen their fear of surprises.
  • If your home is close to high voltage lines, consider learning the EMF levels. They are likely not as big of a deal as buyers will worry that they are.
  • In a quiet location? You might want to check your property’s “How Loud” score to promote that benefit – see HowLoud.com.

Selling a home in Almaden Valley: what’s unique about 95120

This lovely corner of San Jose has become more prized in recent years. Many home buyers view it as a good value for the money in terms of the schools, the overall quality of the community, the scenic beauty with hills close by on two sides, and the reasonable commute to downtown San Jose. These are often what motivate home buyers who are drawn to the 95120 zip code. Once they visit in person, they may be surprised at how quiet this area is, generally, too.

The close proximity to the Santa Cruz Mountains on one side and the Santa Teresa foothills on the other is unique. There are some issues that arise from that situation that we’ll address later, primarily regarding water, drainage, and foundations, as mentioned above. For most home buyers, those are not really on their radar upfront.

Selling a home in Almaden Valley: plan to educate the buyers

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Woodside of Almaden Neighborhood, San Jose

The scenic Woodside of Almaden neighborhood in San Jose offers tree-lined streets with sidewalks, proximity to the Los Alamitos Creek Trail, views of the Santa Teresa Foothills and the coastal range, and top notch public schools to boot. Many Silicon Valley  home buyers appreciate the quiet, the community involvement, and activities that take place in this area of Almaden, and choose to make it home.

With Google expanding into central San Jose in the upcoming years, it is sure to make this area even more desirable as Almaden Expressway is a very direct route to central and downtown San Jose.

 

Woodside of Almaden at Sunset

Woodside of Almaden at Sunset

 

Woodside of Almaden neighborhood description

There are 386 single family homes in the Woodside of Almaden neighborhood. They were built beginning in 1977, but some as late as 2016 (likely rebuilds) and the average age of construction is 1980.

Most houses are around 2,000 to 2,500 square feet, with the average being 2252 SF, but the range is expansive, from 1649 to 4066 SF. Many of these houses feature good sized formal entryways, vaulted ceilings in the living room, and comfortable layouts with well sized rooms. As a rule, houses in this community do not feel cramped – they were well designed.

Lot sizes span 7,680 to 15,705 SF with an average lot size being a generous 8942 square feet.

Homes are built forward enough on the lot that most back yards are a good size. (more…)

Mount Umunhum

Closeup of The Cube at Mount UmunhumMount Umunhum sits high on the Santa Cruz Mountain range, and from there you can enjoy spectacular views. Looking inland, there are vistas of San Jose & most of Santa Clara County, on a clear day even as far north as San Francisco from Mt. Umunhum. Turning toward the Pacific Ocean, from Mount Umunhum’s heights you can see Santa Cruz and Monterey on a fogless day.

This gorgeous peak is part of the mid-Peninsula’s open space holdings, specifically the Sierra Azul Open Space.

Visiting Mount Umunhum

The park is open from a 7 a.m. to about a half hour after sunset (but the gate closes at sunset) per the Sierra Azul Open Space website. The parking lot is not big (just 60 spaces) and it can fill up early on weekends.

It may be warm on the valley floor, but the weather can be quite different, windy and cold, at the summit. Bring layers!

Also, the road up there weaves and winds. If anyone in your party gets motion sickness, you may want that person in the front seat or driving if possible.

The main entrance to the park is at the end of Mt. Umunhum Road, approximately 5.3 miles from the intersection with Hicks Road. There are other places to access the park. You can find all of them on the park’s website under Know Before You Go.

My family and I visited Mount Umunhum on a cold and windy November day in 2017. The views were breath-taking.

2017 views from Mount Umunhum of the Santa Clara Valley

 

 

For those not able to visit in person, the video below provides information on the work that’s gone into making it available to all of us.

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Guadalupe Oak Grove Park in Almaden Valley

Recently my family and I visited the Guadalupe Oak Grove Park in Almaden Valley. As the bird flies, it’s less than 2 miles from our home, but somehow we hadn’t been there before. We loved it and I thought our readers might enjoy seeing some images and learning more about this cool pocket of nature in suburbia.

There are some informative signs in the park. One stated that there are 15 types of oak trees in California – something I had not previously known. In this park there are several types of oaks, including, I believe live oak, valley oak, black oak, blue oak, and the California buckeye, which is related. (There are some empty or blank sign stands along the trail. For neophyte explorers like myself, it would be great if they would indicate which type of oak is which.)

 

Guadalupe Oak Grove Park sign - Almaden Valley, San Jose, CA 95120 - sign

Guadalupe Oak Grove Park boasts 62.7 acres with paths or trails. Some of these trails are fairly level and not on challenging terrain, while others  are more steep. The trails wind through varying types of vegetation. Some parts are dotted with oak tress, others are shrubs or grasses.

It’s located at 5982 Thorntree Drive San Jose, CA 95120 and is open from 8 a.m. to sunset daily. More location info is at the bottom of this post.

This is immediately adjacent to Jeffrey Fontana Park, which has a playground, lawns, and the more typical neighborhood park features, so it’s very convenient to visit both in one day. Guadalupe Oak Grove Park does not have a tot lot, youth playground area, et cetera, per the city of San Jose’s page for this park.

Close to the parking lot there is a shady stretch where you’ll find  log benches to the side. It’s a pleasant spot to just relax and watch the birds and other animals.

 

Shady part of a trail near the parking lot - Guadalpe Oak Grove Park

 

Other sections are grassland. Right now, they are dried out (so it’s no surprise that barbecues are not allowed here!). It was mild the day we stopped by, but this area might be uncomfortably toasty on a summer day.

 

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Meet the Oak Canyon Neighborhood of Almaden Valley in San Jose

Almaden Valley in San Jose is comprised of many neighborhoods and subdivisions. One of them, close to the border with Los Gatos and Cambrian Park, is particularly popular: the Oak Canyon neighborhood.

There are many reasons for its draw among Silicon Valley home buyers: the houses were well built by Shea Homes in about 1980, so they are relatively newer by Silicon Valley standards. They’re larger homes on comfortable lots, often 8000 sf or so but some as small as 6500 sf and others larger than a quarter acre in the Oak Canyon corner of Almaden.

Most of the homes boast a 3 car garage, which is a big help with storage of stuff, if not storage of cars. The roads gently turn, which makes a more pleasing look. It’s a very “conforming” neighborhood where everyone keeps up the homes and yards. Much of Almaden is viewed by consumers as somewhat remote, but this section, near the mouth of Almaden, is not too deep into the valley and is a better commute location for most. One of the largest pulls for the area, though, is the nearby elementary school, Guadalupe School, which has an excellent reputation for quality education and ranks exceedingly well on testing.

 

Where is the Oak Canyon neighborhood in Almaden Valley, San Jose?

Oak Canyon is found near the intersection of Camden Avenue and Coleman Road in San Jose but is bordered by Coleman on one side and the Guadalue Creek on the other sides. (The far side of the Guadalupe Creek at this point is Cambrian Park.)  Just the other side of Coleman Road is the Montevideo neighborhood, and next to that is the Almaden Meadows neighborhood.

 

Oak Canyon Neighborhood Map

 

And to provide some bearings, here’s a map of the Almaden Valley district of San Jose generally:

 

Almaden Valley Map

 

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Glencrest Patio Homes in the Williams area of Almaden Valley

Glencrest Patio Homes in AlmadenThe popular Glencrest neighborhood in Almaden includes both the Glencrest patio homes as well as larger houses on regular lots and streets.

This corner of Almaden is located at the end of Serenity Way near Glenview Park and Cathedral Park in the Williams area. The Glencrest patio homes area is shaped like a pentagram (a five sided object) so is easy to spot on the map.

The community enjoys a shared pool. The outside ring of homes are single family houses on large, normal lots of about 10,000 to 13,000 square feet (on Valley Quail Circle, Hollow Lake).

The more modest patio or zero lot line properties are found on the inside streets and have about 6,000 SF lots – the streets are Quail Creek Circle, Mountain Quail Circle, and Quail Cove Way.

The Glencrest homes were built by Shapell, a company which is known for a very high quality. Most were built in 1987 or 1988.

The big draws for these homes are as follows:

  • Top Almaden schools are close by: Williams Elementary, Bret Harte Middle, and Leland High School
  • Shapell is a highly regarded builder, perhaps the most valued in Santa Clara County
  • The Glencrest area homes, whether on normal lots or zero lot line / patio homes, are fairly young by local standards

Glencrest Patio Homes

 

2022-03 Glencrest Patio Homes entrance

 

As you enter the interior part of the neighborhood, a small sign has some important information for anyone in a vehicle:

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Campagna at Almaden

Campagna at Almaden is a younger community, built in 1997 and 1998, by New Cities. Nestled into the coastal foothills along the border of Los Gatos with San Jose’s Almaden and Cambrian areas, it’s both scenic and convenient.

Campagna at Almaden sign and fountain on Hicks Road at Via Campagna

The main entrance to Campagna at Almaden features a pretty greenbelt area, fountain, and sign.

What are homes like at Campagna at Almaden?

 

Homes in Campagna at Almaden

 

For San Jose and Silicon Valley generally, these 188 two story houses are relatively young! Most of the homes were built in 1997, but 21 houses were completed in 1998.  They have loads of windows, high ceilings, open floor plans, and attached garages. With the younger age also come larger bathrooms, bigger closets, and better sized kitchens than most of the older homes we typically find. They are built on slab foundations.

The houses range from 1820 – 3360 square feet, and the average home size is comfortable 2370 SF. Most homes have 2 car garages, but there are a few homes with 3 car garages. (more…)