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The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market is now clearly in transition. While it remains a strong seller’s market, things are beginning to cool off from where they were earlier this year.

First, some quick data from my RE Report via the bullets and chart below. There appears to be a small amount of undercounting or overcounting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, but the information is still good for tracking trends.

  • The August 2022 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes slipped again to 100.0% of asking (-1% from last month compared to -5% drop in July), and remains below last year for the third month in a row.
  • Average monthly home prices are down from a year ago for the first time since 2019
    • The median sale price is $1,400,000 (-5.4% from the month before, and -2.4% from a year ago)
    • The average sale price was $1,525,840 (-5.0% from the month before, and -2.0% from last year)
  • The days on market slowed again to an average of 3.5 weeks at 24 days, twice as long as last year

War, inflation, stock market, recession concerns – and real estate

Many of our home buyers are financially powered by tech stocks, stock options, and RSUs. When the stock market tanks, some buyers will rush to put their cash into real estate (the quip we often hear is that “real estate does not go to zero” and “at least you can live in it”.

For some, the rising interest rates combined with the lower stock values have been a double whammy on affordability in a market still seeing sky high prices. If the most amply capable buyers don’t want to sell their holdings at a 10% or more discount from what they were, that will impact how much they are willing to pay.

We are finally seeing signs of cooling in the market with homes recieving fewer offers than they may have at the peak of the market, and prices are coming down. That said, much of the entry-level market is still raging hot. The best homes, when appropriately priced and marketed, are still recieving multiple offers and selling well above asking.

However one thing is keeping the market hot: limited inventory. Nationwide, inventory has begun to drop again and overall we remain in a housing supply shortage (each market will vary, of course). So how far off are we from “normal” inventory levels? Let’s have a look at historic active listings in San Jose. (If the chart is too small, click to see in full size.)

San Jose Historic Active Inventory 2022-09-14

At the start of the chart, 2010, the market was still reeling from the 2008 recession, but by 2017 we were seeing a strong sellers market with record low inventory. While listings are certainly up from 2021’s rock-bottom lows, it’s still limited and well below that of more balanced market years like 2013 and 2014.

Will the shortage of homes lead to wild market action like earlier this year? Unlikely. With everything else that’s changed such as the interest rates rising. But will it continue to cool or will it heat up again in autumn? We’ll have to wait and see.

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

Trends At a Glance Aug 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,400,000 (-5.4%) $1,480,000 $1,435,000 (-2.4%)
Average Price $1,525,840 (-5.0%) $1,605,590 $1,557,630 (-2.0%)
No. of Sales 359 (+29.1%) 278 495 (-27.5%)
Pending 642 (+7.5%) 597 627 (+2.4%)
Active 469 (-21.0%) 594 357 (+31.4%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.0% (-1.0%) 101.0% 108.8% (-8.1%)
Days on Market 24 (+12.3%) 21 12 (+94.4%)
Days of Inventory 39 (-38.9%) 64 22 (+81.1%)

 

Please keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

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Woodside of Almaden Neighborhood, San Jose

The scenic Woodside of Almaden neighborhood in San Jose offers tree-lined streets with sidewalks, proximity to the Los Alamitos Creek Trail, views of the Santa Teresa Foothills and the coastal range, and top notch public schools to boot. Many Silicon Valley  home buyers appreciate the quiet, the community involvement, and activities that take place in this area of Almaden, and choose to make it home.

With Google expanding into central San Jose in the upcoming years, it is sure to make this area even more desirable as Almaden Expressway is a very direct route to central and downtown San Jose.

 

Woodside of Almaden at Sunset

Woodside of Almaden at Sunset

 

Woodside of Almaden neighborhood description

There are 386 single family homes in the Woodside of Almaden neighborhood. They were built beginning in 1977, but some as late as 2016 (likely rebuilds) and the average age of construction is 1980.

Most houses are around 2,000 to 2,500 square feet, with the average being 2252 SF, but the range is expansive, from 1649 to 4066 SF. Many of these houses feature good sized formal entryways, vaulted ceilings in the living room, and comfortable layouts with well sized rooms. As a rule, houses in this community do not feel cramped – they were well designed.

Lot sizes span 7,680 to 15,705 SF with an average lot size being a generous 8942 square feet.

Homes are built forward enough on the lot that most back yards are a good size. (more…)

Meet the Oak Canyon Neighborhood of Almaden Valley in San Jose

Almaden Valley in San Jose is comprised of many neighborhoods and subdivisions. One of them, close to the border with Los Gatos and Cambrian Park, is particularly popular: the Oak Canyon neighborhood.

There are many reasons for its draw among Silicon Valley home buyers: the houses were well built by Shea Homes in about 1980, so they are relatively newer by Silicon Valley standards. They’re larger homes on comfortable lots, often 8000 sf or so but some as small as 6500 sf and others larger than a quarter acre in the Oak Canyon corner of Almaden.

Most of the homes boast a 3 car garage, which is a big help with storage of stuff, if not storage of cars. The roads gently turn, which makes a more pleasing look. It’s a very “conforming” neighborhood where everyone keeps up the homes and yards. Much of Almaden is viewed by consumers as somewhat remote, but this section, near the mouth of Almaden, is not too deep into the valley and is a better commute location for most. One of the largest pulls for the area, though, is the nearby elementary school, Guadalupe School, which has an excellent reputation for quality education and ranks exceedingly well on testing.

 

Where is the Oak Canyon neighborhood in Almaden Valley, San Jose?

Oak Canyon is found near the intersection of Camden Avenue and Coleman Road in San Jose but is bordered by Coleman on one side and the Guadalue Creek on the other sides. (The far side of the Guadalupe Creek at this point is Cambrian Park.)  Just the other side of Coleman Road is the Montevideo neighborhood, and next to that is the Almaden Meadows neighborhood.

 

Oak Canyon Neighborhood Map

 

And to provide some bearings, here’s a map of the Almaden Valley district of San Jose generally:

 

Almaden Valley Map

 

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Glencrest Patio Homes in the Williams area of Almaden Valley

Glencrest Patio Homes in AlmadenThe popular Glencrest neighborhood in Almaden includes both the Glencrest patio homes as well as larger houses on regular lots and streets.

This corner of Almaden is located at the end of Serenity Way near Glenview Park and Cathedral Park in the Williams area. The Glencrest patio homes area is shaped like a pentagram (a five sided object) so is easy to spot on the map.

The community enjoys a shared pool. The outside ring of homes are single family houses on large, normal lots of about 10,000 to 13,000 square feet (on Valley Quail Circle, Hollow Lake).

The more modest patio or zero lot line properties are found on the inside streets and have about 6,000 SF lots – the streets are Quail Creek Circle, Mountain Quail Circle, and Quail Cove Way.

The Glencrest homes were built by Shapell, a company which is known for a very high quality. Most were built in 1987 or 1988.

The big draws for these homes are as follows:

  • Top Almaden schools are close by: Williams Elementary, Bret Harte Middle, and Leland High School
  • Shapell is a highly regarded builder, perhaps the most valued in Santa Clara County
  • The Glencrest area homes, whether on normal lots or zero lot line / patio homes, are fairly young by local standards

Glencrest Patio Homes

 

2022-03 Glencrest Patio Homes entrance

 

As you enter the interior part of the neighborhood, a small sign has some important information for anyone in a vehicle:

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Campagna at Almaden

Campagna at Almaden is a younger community, built in 1997 and 1998, by New Cities. Nestled into the coastal foothills along the border of Los Gatos with San Jose’s Almaden and Cambrian areas, it’s both scenic and convenient.

Campagna at Almaden sign and fountain on Hicks Road at Via Campagna

The main entrance to Campagna at Almaden features a pretty greenbelt area, fountain, and sign.

What are homes like at Campagna at Almaden?

 

Homes in Campagna at Almaden

 

For San Jose and Silicon Valley generally, these 188 two story houses are relatively young! Most of the homes were built in 1997, but 21 houses were completed in 1998.  They have loads of windows, high ceilings, open floor plans, and attached garages. With the younger age also come larger bathrooms, bigger closets, and better sized kitchens than most of the older homes we typically find. They are built on slab foundations.

The houses range from 1820 – 3360 square feet, and the average home size is comfortable 2370 SF. Most homes have 2 car garages, but there are a few homes with 3 car garages. (more…)

Creekside Almaden

Creekside Almaden is one of the most affordable neighborhoods of single family homes offering the very most sought after Almaden Schools. For those wanting to purchase a home in a scenic area of San Jose 95120, have a decent sized back patio or yard, but not wanting to buy a condo or townhome, this pocket offers great options!

 

Creekside Almaden neighborhood - Big Sur Drive at Martwood, looking toward the coastal range

What are the homes like in Creekside Almaden?

There are 75 single family homes, built in 1985 by KB Homes (Kaufman and Broad). Many of them are detached houses on zero lot lines (also known as “patio homes”). The rest are duet homes, or single family attached, so one adjoined neighbor. (Duet homes are not the same thing as duplexes. You can read about the difference between duet and duplex homes here.)

The zero lot line homes have one wall with no windows (since the house is directly on the property line). Depending on the orientation of the structure, it may feel darker inside than usual. Similarly, since the attached homes have one wall in common, they may also be a little dark feeling, depending on which side faces south or west. If the wall with no windows is north facing, you may  not feel this way at all.

The Creekside Almaden neighborhood properties all have 2 full bathrooms, some also enjoy a half bathroom, and either 2 or 3 bedrooms. Home sizes range from 956 SF to 1538 SF (the U.S. government refers to houses up to 1500 SF as “starter homes”). Some have lofts, many or most enjoy vaulted ceilings and fireplaces. Closets are a decent size due to the relatively younger age of the homes.

 

Almaden Creekside homes

 

Most lots are between 3000 and 4000 SF, with the smallest lot being 2881 and the largest being 4980. The average lot size is 3571. With small lots, there are small frontages, so not a lot of room in front of any given house for cars. Some of the areas feel a little congested with automobile parking for that reason.

A big plus is that all of these houses have 2 car garages and full sized driveways. All are on public streets, with sidewalks, so there’s no HOA and no HOA dues. For many, those are HUGE plusses.

The Creekside Almaden neighborhood area is scenic, with hills visible east and west.

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California Ridge townhouses in Almaden

California Ridge sits in the southern park of Almaden Valley within the city of San Jose CA 95120. This townome community is nestled into the foothills, within the highly prized Williams Elementary School area of attendance as well as the Bret Harte Middle, and Leland High attendance areas. Aside from nearby construction or home improvement projects, this is a quiet area of Silicon Valley, close to the scenic and enormous Almaden Quicksilver Park.

Many of these townhouse properties enjoy lovely views of Almaden Valley or open space. The streets are gently rolling and the homes younger and pleasant looking.  Nearby San Jose neighborhoods are Almaden Springs and Country View Estates.

 

California Ridge neighborhood view

 

Although sometimes mischaracterized as a condominium or condo complex on the MLS (likely because that is how CoreLogic has dubbed it), California Ridge is a Planned Development, not a condo. Owners own the lot and the home in which they live. That is not the case with condos.

The community actually consists of two distinct neighborhoods.  One is on or adjacent to Copper Peak (tract #7829), which is the street where these photos were taken. It’s got enough elevation to afford lovely valley views. The other area is on and adjacent to Shelby Creek (tract #7828), which has a pleasant setting also, but without the same valley views as it’s lower. This photo is from the Realist Report, which shows each property in a track with the red “tag”. While I don’t love the way it looks, it provides a good sense of where these 2 neighborhoods are in relationship to one another.

 

Map of the two California Ridge neighborhoods

 

What is interesting is that between these two California Ridge neighborhoods, there are a couple of streets with single family homes on large lots (tract #7986). This is unusual.

What are the townhomes at California Ridge like?

These townhomes can feel refreshingly “young” compared to many other homes in Silicon Valley, most of which were constructed decades earlier.

 

Built in 1987 and with wood siding, decks, and loads of windows, the homes are a great visual match for the setting and seem poised to take the most of the terrain. The interiors are a little more open than older homes, so that is an appealing element to many home buyers, also. Each townhouse includes a 2 car garage.  (more…)

Orchard Creek neighborhood of San Jose’s Almaden Valley

Orchard Creek neighborhood of San Jose’s Almaden Valley

Orchard Creek signA pretty neighborhood with Almaden Valley’s best schools, Orchard Creek includes 179 comfortably sized single family homes on good sized lots. Many have been updated or remodeled over the years, and some expanded.

The neighborhood has gently winding streets and is generally very well kept up.

Where is Orchard Creek?

The Orchard Creek neighborhood is in San Jose, 95120, in the scenic Almaden Valley. It is located between Calcaterra Creek to the west and Almaden Expressway to the east, a little north of the split between Almaden Expressway and Almaden Road. It sits adjacent to the Glencrest area to the west, Cathedral Oaks Park on the southwest, Almaden Springs to the south, and the expressway to the east.

Streets include Amur Creek, Anjou Crek, Bartlett Creek, Calcaterra, Casaba Creek, Macintosh Creek, and Pippin Creek. For the truly curious, this is tract number 5436.

The public schools include Williams Elementary, Bret Harte Middle, and Leland High.

 

Orchard Creek - Almaden Valley neighborhood map - San Jose CA 95120

 

What are homes like in Orchard Creek?

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The Almaden Winery Neighborhood of San Jose

The Almaden Winery neighborhood, just off Blossom Hill Road in San Jose, has a rich and interesting past, dating back to the mid 1850s when the site was first planted with grape vines.  It was the first winery in Almaden Valley and one of the oldest in the state of California.  (It survived the prohibition period by getting licensed to make sacramental wine and by bottling grape juice.)

In this post I’ll share some photos of the neighborhood with you, explain about the three different builders/developers and show you where to find each one.

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Villas of Almaden in San Jose

The Villas of Almaden in San Jose 95120 (sometimes called The Almaden Villas) is a gated community at the intersection of Meridian Avenue and Coleman Road in Almaden Valley.  It is very convenient to schools, shopping, and major commute routes.  Residents there enjoy beautiful views of the two nearby parks and hills. Some homes are set with a bit of an elevation and soak in sweeping views.

 

Villas of Almaden topgraphical map

 

The Villas of Almaden: condo ownership

The complex consists of 180 homes held in condo ownership, some of which are detached houses, and others are attached townhouse or duet style homes.  When listed for sale, the detached houses are often shown under condos due to the ownership type.

A big plus with the condo ownership is the easy lifestyle: someone else will do the gardening!

Villas of Almaden details

Construction dates span 1980 to 2000, and the average year built is 1986.  Home sizes run from 1748 SF to 4204 SF (per county records, that is very unusually large for this area) and the average home features 2412 SF.

Lot sizes vary from 2432 to 6653 square feet, and the average is 3711 SF.

Large public parks

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