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The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market is now clearly in transition. While it remains a strong seller’s market, things are beginning to cool off from where they were earlier this year.

First, some quick data from my RE Report via the bullets and chart below. There appears to be a small amount of undercounting or overcounting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, but the information is still good for tracking trends.

  • The August 2022 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes slipped again to 100.0% of asking (-1% from last month compared to -5% drop in July), and remains below last year for the third month in a row.
  • Average monthly home prices are down from a year ago for the first time since 2019
    • The median sale price is $1,400,000 (-5.4% from the month before, and -2.4% from a year ago)
    • The average sale price was $1,525,840 (-5.0% from the month before, and -2.0% from last year)
  • The days on market slowed again to an average of 3.5 weeks at 24 days, twice as long as last year

War, inflation, stock market, recession concerns – and real estate

Many of our home buyers are financially powered by tech stocks, stock options, and RSUs. When the stock market tanks, some buyers will rush to put their cash into real estate (the quip we often hear is that “real estate does not go to zero” and “at least you can live in it”.

For some, the rising interest rates combined with the lower stock values have been a double whammy on affordability in a market still seeing sky high prices. If the most amply capable buyers don’t want to sell their holdings at a 10% or more discount from what they were, that will impact how much they are willing to pay.

We are finally seeing signs of cooling in the market with homes recieving fewer offers than they may have at the peak of the market, and prices are coming down. That said, much of the entry-level market is still raging hot. The best homes, when appropriately priced and marketed, are still recieving multiple offers and selling well above asking.

However one thing is keeping the market hot: limited inventory. Nationwide, inventory has begun to drop again and overall we remain in a housing supply shortage (each market will vary, of course). So how far off are we from “normal” inventory levels? Let’s have a look at historic active listings in San Jose. (If the chart is too small, click to see in full size.)

San Jose Historic Active Inventory 2022-09-14

At the start of the chart, 2010, the market was still reeling from the 2008 recession, but by 2017 we were seeing a strong sellers market with record low inventory. While listings are certainly up from 2021’s rock-bottom lows, it’s still limited and well below that of more balanced market years like 2013 and 2014.

Will the shortage of homes lead to wild market action like earlier this year? Unlikely. With everything else that’s changed such as the interest rates rising. But will it continue to cool or will it heat up again in autumn? We’ll have to wait and see.

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

Trends At a Glance Aug 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,400,000 (-5.4%) $1,480,000 $1,435,000 (-2.4%)
Average Price $1,525,840 (-5.0%) $1,605,590 $1,557,630 (-2.0%)
No. of Sales 359 (+29.1%) 278 495 (-27.5%)
Pending 642 (+7.5%) 597 627 (+2.4%)
Active 469 (-21.0%) 594 357 (+31.4%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.0% (-1.0%) 101.0% 108.8% (-8.1%)
Days on Market 24 (+12.3%) 21 12 (+94.4%)
Days of Inventory 39 (-38.9%) 64 22 (+81.1%)

 

Please keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

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How Old Are Homes in San Jose & Silicon Valley?

white horse fenceMany newcomers to the San Jose & Silicon Valley areas want to buy new homes (or newer ones).  Santa Clara County, though, had a big “building boom” after World War II ranging from the 1940s through the 70s.  At the end of the building frenzy, most of the land was taken.  More importantly, most of the really good land was built up.

How old is the “average” San Jose home for sale?  Probably about 45 – 50 years old, on average.  Depending on where you’re looking, precisely, the homes could be younger or older on average.

There are some nice communities of new and younger homes in Silicon Valley, but there aren’t a lot of them.  Most of the new home communities have houses on small lots.  Some are near high voltage power lines (homes on Taft in San Jose’s Cambrian Park area) or next to freeways (Summerhill development off Samaritan Drive in San Jose).

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Which areas in Silicon Valley are the most European feeling?

Beckwith Building in Downtown Los Gatos, CA

The beautiful Beckwith Building in downtown Los Gatos, California

I have been fortunate to have made 5 trips to Europe, one of them lasting 9 months, and will be returning again before the end of 2013 (this time to Belgium).  It is so diverse, beautiful and compelling! Having experienced a little culture shock myself (when living in Florence, Italy, for one year of university), I’m very sympathetic about how hard an international move can be, and I understand that for Europeans moving to Silicon Valley, there can be an acute culture shock, particularly for those coming from more rural areas.

The bulk of Silicon Valley is located in Santa Clara County, which is at the southern end of the San Francisco Bay.  In this county, there are approximately 1.8 million people, almost a million of them in the city of San Jose.  Some areas, or districts, of San Jose have a distinctive character and are almost like towns or small cities themselves.  So in this article I’ll mention both cities and towns, but also areas or districts of San Jose, which might appeal to our European transplants.   Most of my comments will reference Santa Clara County or “south bay” locations, but I will also mention others on the San Francisco Peninsula and SF Bay Area too.

Architecture, Urban Centers and Charm

It is an unfortunate negative in Silicon Valley that much of our housing consists of ranch style tract homes, and truthfully, they are not exactly a work of art.  New or newer homes tend to be on very tiny parcels of land (or “lots”) and for many people may simply feel too congested or crowded. But there are beautiful residential neighborhoods – you just need to know where to look!  In many ways, the areas with higher charm can make our global home buyers feel more comfortable than if they were faced with only track, ranch neighborhoods.

Do you value unique, older architecture with Victorian, Craftsman, Tudor or other home styles? Then check out these areas:

  • Within San Jose: the Japantown, Vendome, and Naglee Park areas of downtown San Jose. Also in central San Jose are the Rosegarden, Shasta Hanchett and Burbank neighborhoods which all boast some lovely older homes.  Or, if you love classic Spanish Revival style homes with views, consider the old Alum Rock area of San Jose near the country club (golf course).  The Willow Glen area of SJ (zip code 95120) is full of lovely old established neighborhoods with historic homes and tree lined streets.  If your job takes you to downtown San Jose, all of these areas will be fairly close.

Please read the rest of this article on the Move2SiliconValley.com website:

http://www.move2siliconvalley.com/which-silicon-valley-areas-are-the-most-european-feeling/

Finding scenic places in which to live in Silicon Valley

View from Montevina Road in Los Gatos, Scenic Silicon ValleyIf you arrived into Silicon Valley via Highway 101, driving south from San Francisco, you might believe that the Santa Clara Valley, the San Jose area and Silicon Valley as a whole has got to seem to be the ugliest place on earth. Although heavily traveled, that is not the “scenic route”.

So, too, if you are looking for a place to live and are groping to find a place that is reasonably priced, fairly safe and not a terrible commute distance. You might not even have “is nice looking” on your wish list. You might not think it’s possible if all you ever see are the ugly concrete tilt-up buildings in north San Jose, Santa Clara, Alviso, or anywhere along the 237 corridor.  That area is an architectural wasteland.

Let me assure you: there are a lot of beautiful places in Silicon Valley where you can rent or buy a home. But how do you find them? It helps a lot to have a local give you a few pointers.  I’ll give you some tips today on finding a scenic place to live.

Hills – An easy way to find a scenic location to make your home is to settle near the hills, especially those in the west valley (the Santa Cruz Mountains or the Coastal Range) as they are green year-round. Communities at the base of the west valley foothills include, in Santa Clara County, Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Cupertino, Saratoga, Monte Sereno, Los Gatos, and the Almaden Valley area of San Jose. All of these areas are adjacent to the hills or mountains and offer far better than average schools (many of them qualify as great – compare costs between these areas). (more…)

Ratio of Regular Sales to Short Sales & Bank Owned Sales in Silicon Valley Areas

Mini update for Santa Clara County as a whole as of September 17, 2012 for houses in SCC:

Actives = 1295

Regular sales for sale = 1157 (89%

Short sales for sale = 95 (7%)

Bank owned houses for sale = 43 (3%)

Sold in the last 30 days = 859

Regular sales closed in last 30 days = 675 (79%)

Short sales closed in last 30 days = 151 (18%)

Bank owned houses sold in last 30 days = 33 (4%)

It seems that although short sales are in increasingly smaller part of the inventory of available homes, they are highly desirable and are showing up in the solds at twice their ratio of actives. Put another way, the absorption rate looks to be higher.  Let’s check the math on the moths of inventory:

All houses in SCC:  1295/859 = 1.51 months of inventory

Regular sales in the county: 1157/675 = 1.71

Short sales in SCC: 95/151 = .63 moi (63% of one month!)

Bank owned homes: 43/33 = 1.3

All of these numbers are low, low, low – but the short sales are the lowest of all!

-mph

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POST FROM APRIL 22, 2011:
Yesterday we looked at the types of home sales around Silicon Valley by price point.  Not terribly surprising, most of the short sales and bank owned homes were in the lowest price ranges.  Today we’ll look at this type of information not by pricing tier but instead by geography – in other words, by either town, city or district of San Jose (area).  This post will not cover every area but will be a sampling a few communities, mostly on the west side of the valley (since that’s primarily where I work). Santa Clara County, houses for sale categorized by sale type (regular, short sale, REO)

By way of reminder, the small image to the left reflects Santa Clara County’s houses for sale as a whole – all areas and all price points. (You can see the full sized image by clicking on it.) The green area represents “regular home sales” and the brick red and light orange signify distressed  properties listed on the MLS for sale (red is short sales and orange is bank owned or REOs). Next let’s see a few regions within the county to see how things are faring geographically.

1. Almaden Valley area of San Jose – homes listed for sale by type – very few distressed properties on the market!

Almaden Valley houses for sale - shown by "sale type" (distressed or regular sales)Almaden is a lovely southwest San Jose suburban community (zip code 95120) that grew up initially with the cinnabar or mercury mining activity.  Today it’s an upscale area of more expensive homes than most of the county, it enjoys really good schools and scenic views of the coastal range as well as the Santa Teresa Foothills.  Housing here is costly but residents love the quality of life. Since the cost of homes for sale here is high, it’s not super surprising, after seeing yesterday’s post, that there are very few distressed homes on the market here. Next we’ll check the other extreme…. (more…)

Types of Home Sales in Silicon Valley: Concentrations of Distressed Properties in Silicon Valley by Pricing Tier

The Silicon Valley real esate market is heating up but it’s not heating “evenly”.  Some price points and areas (or school districts) enjoy a hot seller’s market while other segments are lagging.  A big factor in the overall health of the realty market in the San Jose area is the percentage of listings which are distressed properties, meaning short sales and bank owned homes.  Today we’ll see the ratios of these homes to the regular sales using graphs to get a quick visual take on the market trends and statistics.

Today we’ll look at homes listed on the MLS in all of Santa Clara County (including San Jose, Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga etc.) by price point. All of the graphs in this post will reference houses and duet homes combinesd(about 99% houses), not condos or townhomes.

 

Santa Clara County all "class 1" (houses & duet homes) for sale by sale type

 

Overall, it looks like about 1/3 of all homes for sale in the county are distressed sales. Next let’s look at this data by price point and then we’ll check it by area.  The images below will be smaller but the colors will represent the same elements in each one (green being regular sales, brick being short sales and light orange being REOs).

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June 2010 Real Estate Home Sales in Silicon Valley

The sales numbers for Silicon Valley real estate in June 2010 are now out and crunched. How’s the market?  Still extremely competitive in the entry level price points – it is a seller’s market overall in Santa Clara County.  The average list price to sales price ratio continues to be at over 100% (and this is the 12th month in a row for that statistic, so it is more than a fleeting trend!).

Here are the numbers at a glance for houses in Santa Clara County:

 

Houses & Duet Homes Jun 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $645,000 $630,000 (+2.4%) $540,000 (+19.4%)
Average Price $785,447 $766,294 (+2.5%) $677,151 (+16.0%)
No. of Sales 1,075 1,216 (-11.6%) 1,278 (-15.9%)
Pending Properties 2,240 2,435 (-8.0%) 2,257 (-0.8%)
Active 2,678 2,582 (+3.7%) 3,821 (-29.9%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.4% 100.8% (-0.4%) 99.4% (+1.0%)
Days on Market 44 39 (+11.8%) 63 (-30.1%)

 

And here are the figures for condominiums and townhouses in SCC:

 

Condos & Townhomes Jun 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $360,000 $378,500 (-4.9%) $339,000 (+6.2%)
Average Price $412,411 $398,300 (+3.5%) $374,215 (+10.2%)
No. of Sales 335 448 (-25.2%) 394 (-15.0%)
Pending Properties 913 1,012 (-9.8%) 755 (+20.9%)
Active 1,005 975 (+3.1%) 1,287 (-21.9%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.4% 100.1% (+0.4%) 98.8% (+1.6%)
Days on Market 59 47 (+25.9%) 71 (-15.7%)

 

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