The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis
The San Jose real estate market is now clearly in transition. While it remains a strong seller’s market, things are beginning to cool off from where they were earlier this year.
First, some quick data from my RE Report via the bullets and chart below. There appears to be a small amount of undercounting or overcounting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, but the information is still good for tracking trends.
- The August 2022 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes slipped again to 100.0% of asking (-1% from last month compared to -5% drop in July), and remains below last year for the third month in a row.
- Average monthly home prices are down from a year ago for the first time since 2019
- The median sale price is $1,400,000 (-5.4% from the month before, and -2.4% from a year ago)
- The average sale price was $1,525,840 (-5.0% from the month before, and -2.0% from last year)
- The days on market slowed again to an average of 3.5 weeks at 24 days, twice as long as last year
War, inflation, stock market, recession concerns – and real estate
Many of our home buyers are financially powered by tech stocks, stock options, and RSUs. When the stock market tanks, some buyers will rush to put their cash into real estate (the quip we often hear is that “real estate does not go to zero” and “at least you can live in it”.
For some, the rising interest rates combined with the lower stock values have been a double whammy on affordability in a market still seeing sky high prices. If the most amply capable buyers don’t want to sell their holdings at a 10% or more discount from what they were, that will impact how much they are willing to pay.
We are finally seeing signs of cooling in the market with homes recieving fewer offers than they may have at the peak of the market, and prices are coming down. That said, much of the entry-level market is still raging hot. The best homes, when appropriately priced and marketed, are still recieving multiple offers and selling well above asking.
However one thing is keeping the market hot: limited inventory. Nationwide, inventory has begun to drop again and overall we remain in a housing supply shortage (each market will vary, of course). So how far off are we from “normal” inventory levels? Let’s have a look at historic active listings in San Jose. (If the chart is too small, click to see in full size.)
At the start of the chart, 2010, the market was still reeling from the 2008 recession, but by 2017 we were seeing a strong sellers market with record low inventory. While listings are certainly up from 2021’s rock-bottom lows, it’s still limited and well below that of more balanced market years like 2013 and 2014.
Will the shortage of homes lead to wild market action like earlier this year? Unlikely. With everything else that’s changed such as the interest rates rising. But will it continue to cool or will it heat up again in autumn? We’ll have to wait and see.
The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.
San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)
| Trends At a Glance | Aug 2022 | Previous Month | Year-over-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $1,400,000 (-5.4%) | $1,480,000 | $1,435,000 (-2.4%) |
| Average Price | $1,525,840 (-5.0%) | $1,605,590 | $1,557,630 (-2.0%) |
| No. of Sales | 359 (+29.1%) | 278 | 495 (-27.5%) |
| Pending | 642 (+7.5%) | 597 | 627 (+2.4%) |
| Active | 469 (-21.0%) | 594 | 357 (+31.4%) |
| Sale vs. List Price | 100.0% (-1.0%) | 101.0% | 108.8% (-8.1%) |
| Days on Market | 24 (+12.3%) | 21 | 12 (+94.4%) |
| Days of Inventory | 39 (-38.9%) | 64 | 22 (+81.1%) |
Please keep reading below for more data and market analysis.
