The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis
The San Jose real estate market remains in a red hot seller’s market, keeping active into early autumn with some mild seasonal cooling. Demand may have shrunk between rising rates and inflation, but inventory has plunged to extreme lows so it’s still far from balanced!
First, some quick data from my RE Report and hand-pulled from the MLS today. There appears to be a small amount of under- or over-counting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, so numbers vary slightly between the two, but the data is still good for trend tracking.
- The October 2023 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes slipped to 105.3% of asking, that’s -1.2% from last month per the RE Report and +5.6% from this time last year, after the market’s sharp decline. For the MLS stats we pulled today, however, it shows 105.2% average, down from 106.1% (-0.9%) the month prior. Either way, the average home is selling consistently over list price in San Jose with consistent overbidding, though the market is cooling off a little into early autumn.
- Home prices are up from last year by approximately 9%-10% after being behind for the first half of this year (RE Report), and month-over-month closed sales values haven’t shifted all that much.
- The time on market sped up month-over-month to a 16 day average (RE Report). It’s quick turnover averaging well below a month, indicating a clear seller’s market.
Market Data: What Numbers Make a Difference
While prices and overbids have fallen significantly since the peak, in some ways this year has been even more challenging for buyers. For most buyers, their ability to purchase has been severely impacted by higher rates on home loans. But the biggest hurdle for many buyers is the extreme lack of available homes.
Since March 2023 San Jose has had record breaking low inventory, continually marking new lows with the fewest available listings by month in over a decade, according to the MLS data pulled today in the chart below. And it doesn’t look like inventory will be picking up any time soon, either.
Why such low inventory?
While in a more typical market we might have a number of sellers looking to “move up” or downsize, most homeowners today couldn’t afford to move or don’t want to take on a higher-rate mortgage. Now it seems like a higher percentage of the listings we are seeing comes from investors, people leaving the area, and sales by family after a death – cases where there is no pressure to repurchase or where selling is the only option. That limits significantly what is available to buyers!
Although inventory remains at record-breaking lows with higher demand than availability, sale prices and overbids are not breaking records like last year’s spring peak. Many buyers are experiencing significantly more pressure from higher interest rates, fluctuating stocks, and other factors limiting purchase power and lowering confidence. That said, not every home will face the same challenges – there are loads of micro markets that influence how well any given home does, so take this city-wide data with a grain of salt.
Inventory remains severely low – the lowest October inventory in over a decade! If you’re an active home buyer, it is slim pickings!
The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.
San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)
| Trends At a Glance | Oct 2023 | Previous Month | Year-over-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $1,600,170 (+0.6%) | $1,590,000 | $1,450,000 (+10.4%) |
| Average Price | $1,728,180 (-3.3%) | $1,787,000 | $1,583,700 (+9.1%) |
| No. of Sales | 281 (+39.8%) | 201 | 327 (-14.1%) |
| Pending | 230 (-16.1%) | 274 | 225 (+2.2%) |
| Active | 234 (-1.3%) | 237 | 418 (-44.0%) |
| Sale vs. List Price | 105.3% (-1.2%) | 106.7% | 99.7% (+5.6%) |
| Days on Market | 16 (-15.2%) | 19 | 27 (-40.9%) |
| Days of Inventory | 25 (-26.9%) | 34 | 38 (-34.9%) |
Available inventory is just half of what it was at this time last year, while pending sales are up, and closed sales are only marginally less (when considering the inventory available). Please keep reading below for more data and market analysis.
