by Mary Pope-Handy | May 12, 2023 | Almaden Valley (SJ), Cambrian Park (SJ), Campbell, Cupertino, Los Gatos, Market Reports, Monte Sereno, Mountain View, Palo Alto, San Jose (all areas), Santa Clara, Saratoga, Silicon Valley, Sunnyvale, Willow Glen (SJ)
Is it a good time to sell a home in Silicon Valley? One of the best ways to get a pulse on the real estate market with an eye to selling or buying is with the months of inventory (MOI), also known as the absorption rate. This is the months of supply of housing for sale.
The months of inventory tells us how fast the current inventory of properties will be sold off if sales were to continue at the same rate with no new inventory were to come on the market.
The easiest analogy is with a bathtub full of water. If we added no more water to the tub, and the drain were opened, how much time would it take for the water to be depleted if it continued to empty at the same rate? That’s the question being answered with the absorption rate of inventory.
Or, simpler still, if you have an hourglass that you turn over, how long does it take for the sand to empty from the top (since you cannot add more sand to that end)?
How to calculate the months of inventory or MOI
The way to calculate the months of inventory is simple: find the current available inventory of homes for sale (not under contract or sale pending), then find the number of homes with that exact criteria which have closed escrow in the last 30 days. Divide the first by the second and you get the months of inventory. Or, I can just use the stats program on the MLS to generate that number, as I did today.
Earlier I pulled this data from MLSListings.com, our local MLS association (of which I am a member) and I ran the numbers for single family homes (houses and duet homes) in Cupertino, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Mountain View, Palo Alto, San Jose (all areas combined), Santa Clara, Saratoga, Sunnyvale. Separately, I also ran this same query for the City of San Jose by district.
The months of inventory by city or town in Santa Clara County
A balanced market for our area is 2-3 months of inventory (for most of the US it’s 4-6 months). Two months or less is a seller’s market, and one month or less is a very hot seller’s market.
Here’s a look at the months of inventory by city or town in SCC in April 2023 for single family homes. As you can see, the vast majority of the county is a strong seller’s market, with the only exception being Los Altos Hills.
Which are the hottest markets? They’re the ones with the smallest months of inventory -Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, Cupertino, Milpitas and many more are well under the 2 month market. A few are a tad higher and in the “balanced market” area, and only one is in a deep buyer’s market.
The months of inventory by area within the City of San Jose
(more…)
by Mary Pope-Handy, Clair Handy | May 11, 2023 | Cambrian Park (SJ), Market Reports, Most Popular Articles
The Cambrian Park real estate market is in the midst of a healthy Spring market.
For those new to the area, Cambrian is most of the 95124 zip code (south of Foxworthy) and most of 95118 (west of Almaden Expressway). It borders Los Gatos, Campbell, Willow Glen, and Blossom Valley.
The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market
Here is a good summary on the Cambrian real estate market. The RE Report is having some issues with reporting from the MLS, so this data may not be exact but we can still understand the current trends with this table.
The RE Report slows that the April market was warmer in several data points than then month before, but of course is still off compared to the year prior.
| Trends At a Glance |
Apr-23 |
Previous Month |
Year-over-Year |
| Median Price |
$1,605,610 (+1.9%) |
$1,575,000 |
$1,890,000 (-15.0%) |
| Average Price |
$1,710,090 (+4.5%) |
$1,636,560 |
$2,044,200 (-16.3%) |
| No. of Sales |
50 (+25.0%) |
40 |
63 (-20.6%) |
| Pending |
75 (-10.7%) |
84 |
87 (-13.8%) |
| Active |
29 (+31.8%) |
22 |
49 (-40.8%) |
| Sale vs. List Price |
107.9% (+2.8%) |
105.00% |
116.6% (-7.5%) |
| Days on Market |
9 (-64.1%) |
26 |
9 (+2.1%) |
| Days of Inventory |
17 (+1.9%) |
17 |
23 (-25.4%) |
and the month before:
| Trends At a Glance |
March 2023 |
Previous Month |
Year-over-Year |
| Median Price |
$1,575,000 (+3.1%) |
$1,527,500 |
$1,900,000 (-17.1%) |
| Average Price |
$1,636,560 (+3.4%) |
$1,583,040 |
$1,982,470 (-17.4%) |
| No. of Sales |
40 (+100.0%) |
20 |
43 (-7.0%) |
| Pending |
84 (+27.3%) |
66 |
84 (0.0%) |
| Active |
22 (-15.4%) |
26 |
29 (-24.1%) |
| Sale vs. List Price |
105.0% (+1.6%) |
103.30% |
123.8% (-15.2%) |
| Days on Market |
26 (+40.2%) |
18 |
6 (+301.7%) |
| Days of Inventory |
17 (-53.0%) |
35 |
20 (-18.4%) |
Multi year average sale prices of Cambrian houses sold each month
What are home values doing in Cambrian? Multiple offers are common on newly listed homes, and overbids are at times steep.
by Clair Handy, Mary Pope-Handy | May 9, 2023 | Almaden Valley (SJ), Alum Rock, Alviso (SJ), Berryessa (SJ), Blossom Valley (SJ), Buena Vista, Cambrian Park (SJ), Central San Jose, Downtown San Jose, East San Jose (SJ), Evergreen (SJ), Market Info, Market Reports, Most Popular Articles, Naglee Park, Neighborhoods in Almaden, Neighborhoods in Cambrian, Neighborhoods in Willow Glen, Rose Garden area, San Jose (all areas), West San Jose, Willow Glen (SJ)
The San Jose real estate market remains in transition. While it is still a clear seller’s market, things are much cooler than what they were a year ago. Demand may have shrunk, but so has inventory. We’re seeing fluctuating cooling and heating in a smaller scale than the dramatic rise and plunge from mid-2022.
First, some quick data from my RE Report via the bullets and chart below. There appears to be a small amount of undercounting or overcounting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, but the information is still good for tracking trends.
- The April 2023 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes grew to 105.3% of asking (+2.9% from last month per RE Report). For the MLS stats we pulled today, however, it shows 105.1% in April, up from 102.8% (+2.3%). Either way, the average home is once selling consistently over list price in San Jose with climbing overbids.
- Home prices are down approximately 12% – 14% from last year (RE Report), and month-over-month closed sales decreased with prices rising roughly 3% – 4%.
- The days on market shrank from an average of 24 in March to 18 days in April (RE Report). When I pulled them directly, it was 24 in March and 19 in April (not shown below). Either way, it’s speeding up and averaging under a month, making it a clear seller’s market.
Market Data: What Numbers Make a Difference
While prices and overbids have fallen significantly last year, in some ways this year has been even more challenging for buyers. For most buyers, their ability to purchase has been severely impacted by higher rates on home loans. But the biggest hurdle for many buyers is the extreme lack of available homes.
March 2023 had the lowest available listings by month in over a decade, according to the MLS data pulled today in the chart below, and that’s being repeated in April 2023.
While in a more typical market we might have a number of sellers looking to “move up” or downsize, most homeowners today couldn’t afford to move or don’t want to take on a higher-rate mortgage. Now it seems like a higher percentage of the inventory we are seeing is from investors, people leaving the area, and sales by family after a death – cases where there is no pressure to repurchase or where selling is the only option. That limits significantly what is available to buyers!
Although inventory remains low, prices haven’t risen the way they did a year ago, but high demand and some improvement in available rates has shown some clear market heating this spring. That said, there are loads of micro markets that influence how well a given home does, so take this city-wide data with a grain of salt.
Inventory remains severely low – if you’re an active home buyer, it is slim pickings!
The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.
San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)
| Trends At a Glance |
Apr-23 |
Previous Month |
Year-over-Year |
| Median Price |
$1,530,000 (+2.9%) |
$1,487,000 |
$1,750,000 (-12.6%) |
| Average Price |
$1,666,510 (+4.2%) |
$1,598,580 |
$1,924,770 (-13.4%) |
| No. of Sales |
277 (-11.2%) |
312 |
501 (-44.7%) |
| Pending |
563 (+3.9%) |
542 |
657 (-14.3%) |
| Active |
268 (+7.2%) |
250 |
407 (-34.2%) |
| Sale vs. List Price |
105.3% (+2.3%) |
103.00% |
116.6% (-9.6%) |
| Days on Market |
18 (-22.7%) |
24 |
9 (+95.5%) |
| Days of Inventory |
28 (+16.7%) |
24 |
24 (+19.1%) |
Please keep reading below for more data and market analysis.
by Mary Pope-Handy, Clair Handy | Mar 27, 2023 | Almaden Valley (SJ), Cambrian Park (SJ), Cupertino, Los Gatos, Market Info, Monte Sereno, Palo Alto, Relocation, Saratoga
What does it cost to buy a home with really good schools in Silicon Valley? Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino and Palo Alto are all areas with highly regarding public schools and high home prices. These aren’t the only areas with good schools but they are popular “west valley” areas that people may consider if working for Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook or any number of high tech employers.
Los Gatos and Saratoga both have multiple school districts, running from good to very good or excellent. The cost of housing tends to follow the popularity of the district, so for those areas I’m showing the breakdown not just for the whole town of Los Gatos but also by the high school district (Los Gatos-Saratoga or Campbell Union High School District). Same with Saratoga. (The Monte Sereno real estate market is very similar to Los Gatos, but slightly more expensive. Most of Monte Sereno has Los Gatos schools, but a small number of homes are in the Campbell area.)
Cost Comparison: 4 West Valley Communities with Good Schools
Here are the average numbers for single family homes sold in the last 60 days ranging from 1,500 – 2,500 square feet, on a lot between 5,000 and 10,000 SF, with 3-5 bedrooms and 2-3 bathrooms to give a sense of what it would cost to purchase a typical house in these areas. Please note that right now it’s a strong seller’s market, so many (if not most or all) homes are selling for more than the list price. DOM stands for days on the market.
If you are new to Santa Clara County, you may be wondering if this is correct. The cost to buy a home in these areas is what?
- Los Gatos: approximately $2,000,000 to $2,600,000 depending on the school district and size of the home and condition (more on that below)
- Saratoga: more on this below, but approximately $2,800,000 to about $3,500,000 depending on the schools, condition, etc.
- Cupertino: approx $2,600,000 – $3,200,000 (some areas will bring in higher prices and others lower)
- Palo Alto: approx $2,700,000 – $3,900,000 and any home over 2,000 SqFt (except for one fixer) sold at or over $3.7M
Remember, these prices do not mean that the houses being sold are perfect. Because it is a strong seller’s market, many properties are being sold which need new roofing, extensive pest work, remodeling, perhaps updating of electrical or plumbing systems or more. Many home buyers will need to spend 1-2% on things like termite fumigation, dry rot or roof repairs, carpets, paint, windows and more, and usually this will be done before they move in. So whatever the budget is, buffer it a little bit for both money and time to make it turnkey.
A Closer Look: Los Gatos and Saratoga
(more…)
by Mary Pope-Handy, Clair Handy | Dec 21, 2022 | Buying Tips, Cambrian Park (SJ), FAQs, Market Info, Market Reports, Selling Tips, Uncategorized, Working in real estate
The online home valuation websites are in high demand for spot checking a price. They are fast, easy, and free.
Everyone wants an easy answer, but often the easy answers aren’t all that accurate.
Online home valuation confusion
Sometimes our clients present us with “THE VALUE” of property per one of these free online home valuation websites sites and in some cases, they challenge us to disprove it (Zillow says it, or some other site, so it must be right, goes the thinking). If they want to buy a house which is listed for more than the auto-comped value, it may cause some emotional anguish. And if they want to buy one which is listed for less, they may feel a little giddy – unless multiple offers are looming.
The same is true with home sellers. They agonize when Zillow, Trulia or some other big name site places a worth on their property which is less than what they feel it should be.
Often the best way to respond is to show many of the online valuations and not just the one the client is focused on (often that’s either Zillow or Redfin, but some are attached so some other site’s numbers.
What might surprise a lot of people is the huge discrepancy in values given.
Sample auto comp values online
A good exercise is picking a home that you know fairly well and then seeing what the online home valuation tools say for each one. I picked a home that I know and ran the address through several websites that provide automatic pricing info. Here are the results, from low to high:
Not included in online home valuation study:
Eppraisal $2,072,000 (too high)
Included in the online home valuation study:
Chase $1,721,800
Collateral Analytics (via Realtor.com) $1,671,000
Redfin $1,644,906
CoreLogic (via Realtor.com) $1,631,300
NAR RPR $1,617,440 (subscription only for Realtors)
Zillow $1,580,300
Quantarium (via Realtor.com) $1,566,759
Bank of America $1,504,391
(Please note: the Trulia home value estimator is the same as Zillow’s Zestimate because Zillow owns Trulia.)
From top to bottom, the amount varies by $217,409! That’s a 14% gap between top and bottom. Had we included Eppraisal, it would have been even crazier.
How can the online home valuations disagree so much?
(more…)
by Mary Pope-Handy | Nov 14, 2022 | Cambrian Park (SJ), Condos & Townhomes, Market Info, Market Reports, Neighborhoods
How’s Cambrian Park condo & townhouse market? Normally we answer this question in brief with regular monthly updates over on the Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update. Here we will provide some more depth with condominium and townhome data.
Before we dive in the the statistics for sold properties last month, let’s see what’s selling now in the Cambrian Park condo & townhouse segment of the market.
Cambrian Park Condo & Townhouse market
Just now (as of November 14, 2022), I looked into the MLS to see the condo and townhome sales in Cambrian over the last month. Inventory is painfully low, and therefore, so are the sales.
- There are 8 units listed for sale as “active” (not pending or under contract)
- 6 are listed as condos (1 is “agent only” status, do not show)
- 2 are listed as townhouses (both are “agent only” status)
- 0 homes are under contract with one or more contingencies
- 0 homes are pending with no contingencies
- 7 condos / townhomes have sold and closed escrow in the last 30 days (4 condos, 3 townhomes)
- They sold with an average of 14 days on market (condos 17 days, townhomes 9)
- Average sale price to list price ratio was 101% (range 97% – 112%, condominiums averaged 99%, townhouses 104%)
Home prices appear to be down about 10% from the peak generally. It could be more or less in any given micro market.
Now let’s have a look at some of the numbers from our Real Estate Report:
Real Estate Report: Cambrian Park Condo & Townhouse Market – San Jose
Home prices are down from the peak here as they are throughout the valley. Please take the month over month and year over year sale price numbers with a big grain of salt. With so few transactions happening, there’s not enough data to be really accurate. What’s better is finding what else has sold for your home (or the one you’re interested in) recently. It should be within a mile, have the same school district, zip code, and similar location overall, and it should be within 10% of the home size of the comparable, or “comp”.
What we do know is that the days of inventory and the days on market are both longer than they were. The market is jiggling up and down a little each month, and the general trend may be that we’ve hit the bottom of pricing for now.
| Trends At a Glance |
Oct 2022 |
Previous Month |
Year-over-Year |
| Median Price |
$680,000 (-24.9%) |
$905,000 |
$901,250 (-24.5%) |
| Average Price |
$814,271 (-9.9%) |
$903,625 |
$945,883 (-13.9%) |
| No. of Sales |
7 (-12.5%) |
8 |
18 (-61.1%) |
| Pending |
8 (+60.0%) |
5 |
14 (-42.9%) |
| Active |
5 (+25.0%) |
4 |
9 (-44.4%) |
| Sale vs. List Price |
101.1% (+2.6%) |
98.5% |
102.1% (-1.0%) |
| Days on Market |
17 (+30.6%) |
13 |
16 (+8.3%) |
| Days of Inventory |
21 (+47.8%) |
15 |
15 (+42.9%) |
Altos Research Live Charts
The market profiles are live, updating automatically once every week, with active inventory from MLS listings.
Most of Cambrian Park falls under the 95124 zip code. Here’s a quick look at the main real estate market data points for Cambrian 95124 this week:
What’s making it strong when prices have fallen? Mostly it’s a lack of inventory couples with a healthy buyer demand.
(more…)
by Mary Pope-Handy, Clair Handy | Nov 3, 2022 | Almaden Valley (SJ), Cambrian Park (SJ), Campbell, Cupertino, Foothill Areas, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Market Info, Market Reports, Monte Sereno, Palo Alto, Saratoga
Often I have clients who are interested in purchasing a 4 bedroom, 2 bath home in a good school district in Silicon Valley, particularly in the South Bay and West Valley areas. But what does it cost to buy that “average home”? Tonight I did a study on the MLS of homes that have sold and closed escrow in the last 4 months with these characteristics:
- single family home (house)
- 4 bedrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- 1800 to 2200 square feet of living space
- 6000 to 10,000 sf lot
Disclaimers aside, here are the numbers for select West Valley Communities in the West/South Bay area with good schools.
Cost to Buy 4 Bed 2 Bath Home in Popular Silicon Valley Communities
The first number is the number of sales during that time (more sales = more reliable averages). This one is not in the older charts, but with inventory as low as it has been lately this makes a huge difference. The second number is the average sales price per square foot, the third number is the average sales price, and the last number is the average days on market:
And now a look back to late winter, early spring of 2017…
What’s changed? A lot! The order has shifted some, showing where demand has increased or decreased. Most noticeably, the prices are mostly up significantly, which is most noticeable in the price per square foot. Cambrian has traveled a good deal up the ladder. Palo Alto and Los Altos were displaced by the sole Saratoga sale, and Blossom Valley of San Jose remains in it’s regular position at the bottom.
The home prices tend to run with school rankings. Previously this was by district API scores. You can check the 2013, three year average, API scores in Santa Clara County for both the districts and the individual schools online here, however that system is no longer used. So how to people judge? Most buyers use sites like GreatSchools.org when looking for a home with good schools which ranks schools on a scale of 1-10 in a few categories. (more…)
by Mary Pope-Handy | Oct 1, 2022 | Cambrian Park (SJ), homes for sale, Ranch
If the California lifestyle home of living outdoors as well as indoors appeals to you, this Cambrian house and yard should not be missed! Clair and I just put a uniquely stunning Cambrian house on the market this evening and we’d like all of our readers to know about it before it’s gone!
- Want to see all of the photos quickly? Check out the virtual tour at 5068TiftonWay.com!
- Listed for sale at $1,450,000
- MLS # ML81909106
- San Jose Unified schools
- The listing agents are Mary Pope-Handy #01153805 and Clair Handy #02153633 with Christie’s International Real Estate Sereno
- The open houses will be Oct 1 & Oct 2, 2022, from 2 pm – 4 pm.
Work from home or entertain in style on a huge covered patio: California lifestyle at its best!
Beautiful pavers cover the patio and walkways in this lovely home, as well as the front porch area. So many choices for enjoying the outdoors!
The covered patio boasts nearly 700 square foot of additional outdoor living space. For most homes, that would be the size of two or more family rooms!
This amazing California lifestyle entertainment area features a high, open beam vaulted ceiling with 4 skylights and area lights, plus a fan light, making it useable at all hours and in just about every weather condition. Curtains on one side can provide extra privacy or weather protection if needed.
The summer kitchen provides granite counters and a wrap around breakfast bar that can seat 11! Additionally, there’s a gas barbecue (plumbed with a gas line, not a tank), an icemaker, and a Kegerator! There’s loads of counter space for meal prep or serving – room for everything!
(more…)
by Mary Pope-Handy | May 31, 2022 | Cambrian Park (SJ), Los Gatos, Neighborhoods, Neighborhoods in Cambrian, Neighborhoods in Los Gatos
Alta Vista Elementary School 200 Blossom Valley Dr, Los Gatos, CA 95032
The Alta Vista neighborhood, which sits along the border of Los Gatos and the Cambrian Park district of San Jose, is very highly sought after and valued for many reasons. Real estate prices vary depending upon the precise location within the neighborhood as well as the size and condition of the home.
Major draws include these:
- good schools that are in the immediate neighborhood
- shopping nearby
- scenic area with many tree lined streets and close proximity of the hills
- excellent commute access (Highway 85, Blossom Hill Road)
- quick trip to downtown Los Gatos
Scenic, convenient Alta Vista neighborhood
Prior to being developed for housing, this spot at the base of Blossom Hill was once blanketed in orchards and was scenic enough that it was part of the “blossom tours” that used to take place at the height of the flowering. Hence, one large section of this neighborhood has street names that begin with “blossom”.
Most of the streets close to Alta Vista School are beautifully tree-lined, and from virtually everywhere in the neighborhood, you are close to Blossom Hill (that’s the name of the hill, not just the name of the road!). Homes are well kept, streets are wide enough, and except when there’s a school function, there really aren’t too many cars on the street. It is very scenic, pleasant and uncrowded feeling. Although you’re in the city or town, you feel close to the country there.
There are a few homes along Nimrick or Blossom Hill on large parcels, many of which enjoy beautiful valley views.
Additionally, many homebuyers select this area because the school scores are high and because it’s easy to get to the elementary and middle schools without crossing any major streets: that is a big plus! It is also a quick drive to highway 85, just a couple of miles to the Los Gatos shopping areas (at Los Gatos Blvd and Blossom Hill Road) or to Vasona Lake County Park. For many, it’s a way to be close to downtown Los Gatos.
Where is this neighborhood? What are the landmarks?
The neighborhood considered to be “Alta Vista” has three strong borders and one vague one. The three well defined edges are Blossom Hill Road, Union Avenue, and Los Gatos Almaden Road. The fourth boundary is approximately the edge of Ross Creek, which runs behind Westchester Drive, but perhaps some would argue that it goes a little further. The Westchester Manor area is highlighted on this website if you’d like to check it out.
Alta Vista neighborhood map
There are several landmarks in the neighborhood:
(more…)
by Mary Pope-Handy | May 19, 2022 | Cambrian Park (SJ), Neighborhoods in Cambrian
The Noddin neighborhood in Cambrian is on the edge of Los Gatos and Almaden along Blossom Hill Road and Camden Avenues. The Santa Cruz Mountains are visible from many parts of this community if you are facing south and most of the streets are tree-lined, while homes are generally tidy. It’s attractive generally, and a few homes are up on a bit of a knoll and enjoy valley views, too. The local schools are all highly regarded, the commute access to major freeways is convenient – but not too close. For all of these reasons, this corner of San Jose is highly regarded.
Where is the Noddin neighborhood?
This part of Cambrian wraps around Los Gatos on two sides (Surmont, Belgatos, and Belwood of Los Gatos subdivisions) and faces the Oak Canyon neighborhood across Camden on the other. The northern boundary line follows the high voltage power line easement.
What’s a little bit funny is that this part of Cambrian in San Jose is referred to as Noddin, the local elementary school on Harwood Road, but some of the area is within the attendance zone for Alta Vista, some for Noddin, and some for Guadalupe Elementary.
The boundaries for this pocket of San Jose vary a little, but for the purposes of this article, I’m using the approximate area used by Nextdoor.
In the Noddin neighborhood map below, the green line is the boundary between Los Gatos and San Jose (Cambrian). The dark red line is the school attendance area per the MLS map (it is a little bit off).
What are homes like in the Noddin neighborhood?
Within this almost “L” shaped area there are
- approximately 93 condominiums (mostly at the Montañas de Los Gatos, which have townhouse style homes held in condo ownership)
- 48 duplexes (so 96 units)
- 12 multi family units (as in apartments, or possibly triplex and fourplex properties)
- and approximately 960 single family homes (or houses – the exact number varies if you count a tiny handful of houses along Hicks Road that are in Los Gatos or not).
- There were also 5 vacant lots that appear to be zoned residential, or which had houses that have been razed – not much if your goal is to build new!
There’s a little variety, but the area is overwhelmingly houses. (more…)
Is it a good time to sell a home in Silicon Valley? One of the best ways to get a pulse on the real estate market with an eye to selling or buying is with the months of inventory (MOI), also known as the absorption rate. This is the months of supply of housing for sale.
