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The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market is now clearly in transition. While it remains a strong seller’s market, things are beginning to cool off from where they were earlier this year.

First, some quick data from my RE Report via the bullets and chart below. There appears to be a small amount of undercounting or overcounting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, but the information is still good for tracking trends.

  • The August 2022 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes slipped again to 100.0% of asking (-1% from last month compared to -5% drop in July), and remains below last year for the third month in a row.
  • Average monthly home prices are down from a year ago for the first time since 2019
    • The median sale price is $1,400,000 (-5.4% from the month before, and -2.4% from a year ago)
    • The average sale price was $1,525,840 (-5.0% from the month before, and -2.0% from last year)
  • The days on market slowed again to an average of 3.5 weeks at 24 days, twice as long as last year

War, inflation, stock market, recession concerns – and real estate

Many of our home buyers are financially powered by tech stocks, stock options, and RSUs. When the stock market tanks, some buyers will rush to put their cash into real estate (the quip we often hear is that “real estate does not go to zero” and “at least you can live in it”.

For some, the rising interest rates combined with the lower stock values have been a double whammy on affordability in a market still seeing sky high prices. If the most amply capable buyers don’t want to sell their holdings at a 10% or more discount from what they were, that will impact how much they are willing to pay.

We are finally seeing signs of cooling in the market with homes recieving fewer offers than they may have at the peak of the market, and prices are coming down. That said, much of the entry-level market is still raging hot. The best homes, when appropriately priced and marketed, are still recieving multiple offers and selling well above asking.

However one thing is keeping the market hot: limited inventory. Nationwide, inventory has begun to drop again and overall we remain in a housing supply shortage (each market will vary, of course). So how far off are we from “normal” inventory levels? Let’s have a look at historic active listings in San Jose. (If the chart is too small, click to see in full size.)

San Jose Historic Active Inventory 2022-09-14

At the start of the chart, 2010, the market was still reeling from the 2008 recession, but by 2017 we were seeing a strong sellers market with record low inventory. While listings are certainly up from 2021’s rock-bottom lows, it’s still limited and well below that of more balanced market years like 2013 and 2014.

Will the shortage of homes lead to wild market action like earlier this year? Unlikely. With everything else that’s changed such as the interest rates rising. But will it continue to cool or will it heat up again in autumn? We’ll have to wait and see.

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

Trends At a Glance Aug 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,400,000 (-5.4%) $1,480,000 $1,435,000 (-2.4%)
Average Price $1,525,840 (-5.0%) $1,605,590 $1,557,630 (-2.0%)
No. of Sales 359 (+29.1%) 278 495 (-27.5%)
Pending 642 (+7.5%) 597 627 (+2.4%)
Active 469 (-21.0%) 594 357 (+31.4%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.0% (-1.0%) 101.0% 108.8% (-8.1%)
Days on Market 24 (+12.3%) 21 12 (+94.4%)
Days of Inventory 39 (-38.9%) 64 22 (+81.1%)

 

Please keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

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The Alta Vista Neighborhood in Los Gatos and Cambrian Park

Alta Vista School Sign 1

Alta Vista Elementary School 200 Blossom Valley Dr, Los Gatos, CA 95032

The Alta Vista neighborhood, which sits along the border of Los Gatos and the Cambrian Park district of San Jose, is very highly sought after and valued for many reasons. Real estate prices vary depending upon the precise location within the neighborhood as well as the size and condition of the home.

Major draws include these:

  • good schools that are in the immediate neighborhood
  • shopping nearby
  • scenic area with many tree lined streets and close proximity of the hills
  • excellent commute access (Highway 85, Blossom Hill Road)
  • quick trip to downtown Los Gatos

Scenic, convenient Alta Vista neighborhood

Prior to being developed for housing, this spot at the base of Blossom Hill was once blanketed in orchards and was scenic enough that it was part of the “blossom tours” that used to take place at the height of the flowering.  Hence, one large section of this neighborhood has street names that begin with “blossom”.

Most of the streets close to Alta Vista School are beautifully tree-lined, and from virtually everywhere in the neighborhood, you are close to Blossom Hill (that’s the name of the hill, not just the name of the road!). Homes are well kept, streets are wide enough, and except when there’s a school function, there really aren’t too many cars on the street. It is very scenic, pleasant and uncrowded feeling. Although you’re in the city or town, you feel close to the country there.

There are a few homes along Nimrick or Blossom Hill on large parcels, many of which enjoy beautiful valley views.

Additionally, many homebuyers select this area because the school scores are high and because it’s easy to get to the elementary and middle schools without crossing any major streets: that is a big plus! It is also a quick drive to highway 85, just a couple of miles to the Los Gatos shopping areas (at Los Gatos Blvd and Blossom Hill Road) or to Vasona Lake County Park. For many, it’s a way to be close to downtown Los Gatos.

Where is this neighborhood? What are the landmarks?

The neighborhood considered to be “Alta Vista” has three strong borders and one vague one. The three well defined edges are Blossom Hill Road, Union Avenue, and Los Gatos Almaden Road. The fourth boundary is approximately the edge of Ross Creek, which runs behind Westchester Drive, but perhaps some would argue that it goes a little further. The Westchester Manor area is highlighted on this website if you’d like to check it out.

Alta Vista neighborhood map - Click to see it on Google My Maps (created by Mary Pope-Handy)

Alta Vista neighborhood map

There are several landmarks in the neighborhood:
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Noddin neighborhood in Cambrian

The Noddin neighborhood in Cambrian is on the edge of Los Gatos and Almaden along Blossom Hill Road and Camden Avenues. The Santa Cruz Mountains are visible from many parts of this community if you are facing south and most of the streets are tree-lined, while homes are generally tidy. It’s attractive generally, and a few homes are up on a bit of a knoll and enjoy valley views, too.  The local schools are all highly regarded, the commute access to major freeways is convenient – but not too close. For all of these reasons, this corner of San Jose is highly regarded.

Ranch style house in the Noddin area near the base of the foothills

 

Where is the Noddin neighborhood?

This part of Cambrian wraps around Los Gatos on two sides (Surmont, Belgatos, and Belwood of Los Gatos subdivisions) and faces the Oak Canyon neighborhood across Camden on the other. The northern boundary line follows the high voltage power line easement.

What’s a little bit funny is that this part of Cambrian in San Jose is referred to as Noddin, the local elementary school on Harwood Road, but some of the area is within the attendance zone for Alta Vista, some for Noddin, and some for Guadalupe Elementary.

The boundaries for this pocket of San Jose vary a little, but for the purposes of this article, I’m using the approximate area used by Nextdoor.

In the Noddin neighborhood map below, the green line is the boundary between Los Gatos and San Jose (Cambrian). The dark red line is the school attendance area per the MLS map (it is a little bit off).

 

Map of the Noddin area in Cambrian (San Jose) 95124

What are homes like in the Noddin neighborhood?

Within this almost “L” shaped area there are

  1. approximately 93 condominiums (mostly at the Montañas de Los Gatos, which have townhouse style homes held in condo ownership)
  2. 48 duplexes (so 96 units)
  3. 12 multi family units (as in apartments, or possibly triplex and fourplex properties)
  4. and approximately 960 single family homes (or houses – the exact number varies if you count a tiny handful of houses along Hicks Road that are in Los Gatos or not).
  5. There were also 5 vacant lots that appear to be zoned residential, or which had houses that have been razed – not much if your goal is to build new!

There’s a little variety, but the area is overwhelmingly houses. (more…)

Oster Neighborhood in Cambrian

The Oster neighborhood, anchored around Oster Elementary School in San Jose’s Cambrian district, is situated on the north side of highway 85 and just west of Camden Avenue, part of the 95124 zip code. It’s one of the more affordable areas within the highly regarded Union School District, which is not to say that real estate prices are inexpensive there! They are just slightly softer than those around Carlton, Alta Vista, and Guadalupe, generally. The Oster area has a subdivision directly adjacent to the school, Cambrian Acres, but the neighborhood is much larger than just that one subdivision.

 

Oster Elemenary in Cambrian attendance map

 

The Oster neighborhood is a nicely maintained pocket within Silicon Valley’s “west valley” (which follows Highway 85). One of the highlights of the area is Butcher Park, which includes a dog park area.  It’s the other side of Camden from the school and is really a second anchor for the community. (Personal note: we celebrated my son’s first birthday at Butcher Park, so I am particularly fond of it.)

 

Butcher Park and dog park in Cambrian

 

There’s loads of lawn and play area:

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Lone Hill Highlands neighborhood in Cambrian Park

Close to the Los Gatos border but in San Jose with the 95124 zip code, the Lone Hill Highlands neighborhood enjoys a central neighborhood park, great access to major commute routes, the highly regarded Noddin Elementary School adjacent to one border, plus shopping and dining venues nearby.

Where is the Lone Hill Highlands neighborhood?

Map of the Lone Hill Highlands neighborhood in San Jose, CA (Cambrian Park district with zip code 95124)The Lone Hill Highlands neighborhood in Cambrian Park stretches from Blossom Hill Road to the West Valley Freeway, also known locally as Highway 85, with Camden Avenue to the east and Harwood Road to the west.

From this corner of Cambrian Park, it’s easy to access Highway 85 at Camden Avenue.  Camden becomes San Tomas Expressway at Highway 880, so many commuters may stay off of freeways entirely.  Blossom Hill Road is parallel to 85 and provides a good route to downtown Los Gatos to the west, or many shopping areas in Blossom Valley such as Oakridge Mall.

Just the other side of Harwood Road is the Glenpark subdivision and the Harwood Estates subdivision. These are still generally in the Lone Hill area, but not Lone Hill Highlands. Kitty corner across Blossom Hill and Harwood is the Walgreen’s Shopping Center with a nice new Starbucks, Los Gatos Pizza, and much more. Just behind that is the Belwood of Los Gatos neighborhood.

Public schools assigned are the very highly regarded Lone Hill Elementary, Union Middle, and Leigh High.

What are homes like in the Lone Hills area of San Jose?

Most of this Cambrian neighborhood consists of single family homes. There are 850 houses (single family homes, detached) and 108 attached single family homes in the Lone Hill Highlands HOA area (not detached houses, and actually held in condo ownership – see darker purple area in the map). Additionally, there are some multifamily homes and apartments.

Drysdale tract original criss cross windowsThe houses are mostly in either the Lone Hill Highlands subdivision (with 449 houses) or the Harwood Manor subdivision (401 houses). This area was initially all or at least primarily filled with single story, ranch style houses.

Local Realtors may think of much of this area by Camden, Blossom Hill and Harwood as the Drysdale tract with some whimsical features, such as telltale criss-cross windows, sometimes with shutters that seem to feature a telephone handset, and roofline and window frame ornamentation.  They also tend to have courtyard entries, often with half gates, making for more privacy at the front door.  Most of the houses have dual pane windows and have long since gotten rid of the criss-cross windows, but there are still a few to be found here and also in other parts of Cambrian.

The tract houses were built beginning in 1957, heavy construction in the area in the early 1960s and going to about 1973.  One older house is said to date to 1900 and a few properties were built later than 1980.  Most houses have been at least somewhat updated with newer roofs, windows, and interior remodeling. A few have been very extensively remodeled or rebuilt (and look amazing).

Lot sizes for these houses average 7200 to 7800 SF, but there’s a very wide range.  In much of San Jose, a suburban parcel might be just 6,000 SF, so this feels wonderfully uncrowded.  Some streets are tree lined, others have young trees.  A few roads have too many cars, but most do not.

Look at a sample of houses from this part of Cambrian:

 

Lone Hill Highlands neighborhood house

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The house below has newer windows, but notice the boards just below the roof and how they are scalloped. Charming!

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Westchester Manor, a part of the Alta Vista neighborhood

Like many Cambrian neighborhoods, the Westchester Manor subdivision in the Alta Vista area includes well kept homes and yards, tree lined streets, and wonderful public schools. This neighborhood, though, is unique in that residents can amble to the elementary or middle school without crossing major streets. And the same can be said of getting to the local grocery store, Safeway, Starbucks, and more.

For home buyers seeking walkability or easy access, this is a place to check out! But it’s not just walkable. From here it’s an easy jump to both Highway 85 off Union Avenue or a run to Vasona Lake County Park and downtown Los Gatos via Blossom Hill Road. Add to that the close proximity of the hills and you get the feeling that you’re not quite in the middle of a city at all.

Where is Westchester Manor?

Westchester Manor map - Alta Vista area of Cambrian in San Jose CA

Pins indicate homes within the Westchester Manor subdivision beside Union Middle School near Alta Vista Elementary School. The yellow line follows the power line.

Westchester Manor is within the Alta Vista neighborhood.

The Alta Vista neighborhood is part San Jose’s Cambrian district, and also part Los Gatos (see a map of the neighborhood and municipal boundaries in the blog post linked). It’s bordered by Los Gatos-Almaden Road to the north, Union to the east, and Blossom Hill to the south.

The Westchester Manor subdivision is entirely within San Jose on the northeast end of the neighborhood, next to Union Middle School.

This neighborhood has a very high owner occupancy rate – 87% from the numbers I pulled from Realist (a report available to members of the MLS) recently. It’s a low-turnover, stable neighborhood. People move in, and they stay!

What are the homes like in Westchester Manor?

This is a predominantly “ranch style” neighborhood with mostly single story houses, but still quite a few two story ones, in an area with sidewalks, curbs, and gutters. Most houses have 3-4 bedrooms and 2-3 full bathrooms.

There are 3 tracts named within this subdivision. They don’t have exciting labels but instead are called tracts 1481, 1903, and 1997. There are 30-35 lots in each one and 106 in all.

There’s variation in age, but not much. Of the 106 homes which are part of Westchester Manor (there are smaller subdivisions on Coronet that aren’t) approximately 80% were built between 1957 and 1959 although some in tract 1997 (including and near Grey Court) were built as late as 1965 (I found one house built in 1956 also). Most of them have been at least somewhat updated and a handful were rebuilt with new construction in 1980 and 1990.

Home sizes range with the smallest homes at 1,283 SqFt, 1,293 SqFt, 1,308 SqFt, and 1,319 SqFt. The biggest houses are 3,656 SqFt, 3,607 SqFt, 3,171 SqFt, and 3,072 SqFt. The median home size is 1,738 SqFt.

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2156 Ebbesen Ave San Jose, CA 95124

SALE PENDING WITH 6 OFFERS!
Closing Monday, May 10th.

f you are house hunting in Cambrian Park, there’s a gem of an opportunity at 2156 Ebbesen Avenue in the Villa Cambrian subdivision (Parker area) near Union Avenue and 85. This charming home is located on a quiet street  and has been beautifully updated throughout. It’s updated throughout and enjoys highly prized Union Schools.  Fantastic commute location, too!

Family Room at 2156 Ebbesen Avenue, San Jose (Cambrian)

Quick facts on 2156 Ebbesen Avenue

  • Offered at $1,423,000
  • 4 bedrooms (1 used as an office with French door & built in bookshelves)
  • 2 updated bathrooms – the hall bathroom enjoys a deep, jetted bath
  • 1457 SF (per county records) of living space
  • Lot size 5911 SF (per county records, plat map shows lot as 60’x100′)
  • Built in 1965
  • single story home – just one step into the family room
  • attached 2 car garage with storage space & pull down ladder

This updated home has many upgrades!

  • updated kitchen with maple cabinets & Corian counter with breakfast bar
  • large, sunny living room
  • family room with gas log fireplace & built in bookshelves
  • screened in porch for indoor / outdoor living off the family room
  • beautiful engineered Brazilian cherry floors in living areas & hallway
  • fresh carpet in all 4 bedrooms
  • dual pane windows
  • central  air conditioning
  • 2 sun tunnels
  • loads of storage, including a large storage shed in backyard

 

Kitchen at Ebbesen

Schools for 2156 Ebbesen Avenue

Carlton Elementary – Union School District
Union Middle School – Union School District
Leigh High School – Campbell Union High School District

View all the photos and get more info at CambrianHomeSale.com

 

Villa Cambrian subdivision in Cambrian’s Parker area

The Villa Cambrian neighborhood in San Jose enjoys direct access to Hogue Park with its many amenities and enormous lawn. It also offers great proximity to major commute routes, shopping, employment centers, doctor and dental offices, bus routes, Harker preschool, and just about everything else. This subdivision stretches from Union Avenue on the east to Houge Park on the west an runs along Barrett Avenue and includes a few other streets, including part of Esther Drive. The area near the park is generally referred to as the Parker area.

 

Map of the Villa Cambrian area in San Jose

 

There are 153 ranch style houses in the Villa Cambrian subdivision, which were built between 1960 and 1965. They range in size from 1222 SF to 2800 SF, and most homes  are around 1222 -1457 square feet. The lots or parcels run from the smallest size of 5509 SF to more than 10,000 SF; most are less than 7000 SF, though.

Something unique and much appreciated by privacy lovers: all but 1 are single story houses.

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Scottsdale 2 and Coronado subdivisions in Cambrian area of San Jose

Cambrian subdivisions Scottsdale 2 and Coronado

On the northeast side of the Cambrian district in San Jose, just west of the Robertville area, there’s a nice pocket which has the 95118 zip code but the Union School District (most of 95118 has San Jose Unified schools). In fact, it’s right next to the school district boundary, so homes just a little east of here will be in San Jose Unfied, with lower performing schools and lower prices. This is a very goodvalue area” for how much home you can buy with really nicely performing public schools!

Within this area there are a few really outstanding subdivisions.  Two of them are adjacent to each other and share many of the same amenities, such as walkability to the nearby Lunardi’s grocery store and other shops, so it’s helpful to view them together:  Scottsdale 2, which is in three sections on different sides of Meridian and Branham, and Coronado, which fits like a puzzle piece around one end of the Scottsdale 2 tract.

Scottsdale 2

Many, but not all, of the Scottsdale 2 houses have streets that begin with “Calle de”. With good sized rooms and comfortable floor plans, the Scottsdale 2 homes feel younger than they are. Built between 1973 and 1976, the 383 houses there average a comfortable 1807 square feet (range is 1426 to about 2500 with one other which is more than 3000 SF) with mixed single and double story floor plans.  The average lot size is around 6600 SF, but some are as small as 5500 SF and others larger than 10,000 SF.

Major plusses are the more open floorplans than are typically seen in Cambrian, good sized home and room, walkability, good public schools and something infrequently found in Cambrian: underground power lines.  It is so nice to not see wires everywhere!

Streets included:

Calle De Aida
Calle De Arroyo
Calle De Farrar
Calle De Gilda
Calle De Lucia
Calle De Stuarda
Calle De Tosca
Casa De Ponselle
Corte De Boleyn
Corte De Callas
Corte De Medea
Corte De Moffo
Corte De Pons
Corte De Tebaldi
Corte De Thais
Ilikai Ave
Tampico Way
Via De Caballe

What do homes cost in the Scottsdale 2 neighborhood?

Prices range tremendously, even for the same floorplan, based on exact location, lot size, remodeling, permits (or lack of them), and of course marketing. Photos are a home’s first “open house” and good photographs with good staging can make an enormous difference in the level of qualified buyer traffic and the ultimate sale price of the home. Smaller homes with small lots and needing remodeling will sell for the low million dollars, perhaps around $1.25 mil at the low end, but those which are bigger, highly remodeled (with permits and finals) and professionally marketed with professional photography will command a premium and sell for $1.7 million or more.

 

Scottsdale 2 subdivision

 

Here’s a closer view of one of the one story houses in Scottsdale 2.

 

Scottsdale 2 house

 

Coronado

The Coronado area is slightly smaller of a subdivision.   It consists of 238 houses which were built in 1967 and 1968. The houses and lots are just a little bigger than the larger Scottsdale 2 subdivision.

The home sizes in the Coronado tract range from 1579 square feet to 2500 SF in most cases (a small handful are bigger) to and the average home is 1981 square feet & average lot size 7021 SF.

Streets included:

Durango Court
El Roble Court
La Paz Court
Las Cruces Court
Luning Drive
Portobello Drive
Puebla Court
Rio Verde Drive
Sutcliff Avenue
Tampico Way
Yucatan Way

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Del Oro neighborhood of Cambrian on the Los Gatos border

The Del Oro neighborhood is a pretty pocket of the Cambrian district in San Jose directly on the border with Los Gatos at Blossom Hill Road.  Most blocks enjoy large, mature street trees, and views of the coastal foothills are plentiful.

 

Del Oro neighborhood tree lined street

 

Where is the Del Oro neighborhood?

The Del Oro neighborhood in San Jose 95124 is bordered by Blossom Hill Road on the south, 1 house in from Leigh Avenue to the west, the utility easement behind Anne Way to the north, and the water or underground creek easement between Bobbywood Avenue and Mary Jo Way to the east. Streets included are Del Oro Drive, Del Oro Place, Del Oro Court, Tesoro Court, part of Anne Way, Anne Court, most of Copeland Lane, Copeland Place, and Copeland Court.

Students in this area attend Noddin Elementary, Union Middle, and Leigh High School – and those schools are a popular draw for this Silicon Valley  community. The Del Oro neighborhood actually backs up to the Leigh campus. The other side of Blossom Hill Road lies the Belwood of Los Gatos neighborhood and the Belgatos area.  As you can see from the map below, it is close to Belgatos Park, which includes some great trails as well as a playground, and also the Heinz Open Space Preserve and a good network of trails.

 

Del Oro neighborhood in Cambrian area of San Jose

 

What are homes like in the Del Oro neighborhood?

This part of Cambrian consists of mostly single story ranch style homes, but there are some 2 story houses. Additionally, some Del Oro neighborhood homes are Spanish style, there are some French with a Mansard roof, etc. – so a bit of variety. Most of the streets are tree lined and there are sidewalks to make it even more inviting for pedestrians. And of course, the coastal hills are not far, and they make a beautiful back drop of the neighborhood.

Some details:

  • 183 single family homes
  • 143 of them were built in 1968, 4 in 1967
  • 30 were built between 1959 and 1964
  • average square footage is 1792 SF (range is 1057 Sf to 2793 SF)
  • average lot size is 6691 SF (largest lot is 11,097 SF, but most properties have 5900 to 8000 SF)
  • average house has 3 to 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms
    • 2 bedrooms = 1 house
    • 3 bedrooms = 96 homes
    • 4 bedrooms = 84 properties
    • 5 bedrooms = 1 house
    • 6 bedrooms = 1 house
  • most homes have 2 car attached garages
  • as of this writing, 15 are rental homes and the rest are owner occupied (92% owner occupied)
  • 36 of them have pools (20% do have pools, 90% do not)
  • 111 (61%) are 1 story houses,  48 have 2 stories, and 20 are tri-levels.

Most of the homes seem to be well cared for and updated, and most are basically ranch style. This first image displays a house with a taller than usual roofline, which is a beautiful improvement over the more typical low profile ranch roof.

 

Single Story Del Oro Home - San Jose 95124

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