The San Jose real estate market is now clearly in transition. While it remains a strong seller’s market, things are beginning to cool off from where they were earlier this year.
First, some quick data from my RE Report via the bullets and chart below. There appears to be a small amount of undercounting or overcounting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, but the information is still good for tracking trends.
- The June 2022 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes slipped again to 106.3% of asking (-5.9% from last month), and finally fell below last year ago when it was at 110.8% (-4.0% from then)
- Home prices are up roughly 5 – 7.4% from a year ago, a big drop from April when it was up 23.7 – 25.2% (more than a typical 20% down payment)!
- The median sale price is $1,575,000 (a dip from the prior month, but up from a year ago, when it was $1,500,000 (+5.0%)
- The average sale price was $1,731,600 (-7.2% from the month before, and +7.4% from last year)
- The days on market slowed again to just under 2 weeks at 13 days, a little slower than last year.
War, inflation, stock market, recession concerns – and real estate
Many of our home buyers are financially powered by tech stocks, stock options, and RSUs. When the stock market tanks, some buyers will rush to put their cash into real estate (the quip we often hear is that “real estate does not go to zero” and “at least you can live in it”. At the same time, if the most amply capable buyers don’t want to sell their holdings at a 10% or more discount from what they were, that will impact how much they are willing to pay.
For some, the rising interest rates combined with the lower stock values have been a double whammy on affordability in a market still seeing astronomically high prices.
We are finally seeing signs of cooling in the market with some homes recieving fewer offers. Prices are not climbing like they were earlier this year, and in some cases they’re coming down again. Interest rate hikes have pushed some buyers to lower price points, and much of the entry-level market is still raging hot. The best homes, when appropriately priced and marketed, are still recieving multiple offers and selling well above asking.
Nationwide, inventory is rising pretty noticeably, and we’re starting to see some growth around Silicon Valley, too. So are we getting back to normal inventory? Let’s have a look at what has historic inventory has looked like in San Jose. (If the chart is too small, click to see in full size.)
At the start of the chart, 2010, the market was still reeling from the 2008 recession, but by 2017 we were seeing a strong sellers market with record low inventory. While listings are certainly up from 2021’s rock-bottom lows, it’s still limited and far below that of more balanced market years like 2013 and 2014.
So while inventory has been growing, there is still a shortage. If it continues to grow, prices should level out or drop. But will it be on par with interest rates rising, just enough to counterbalance the rapid inflation we’ve seen in recent years? We’ll have to wait and see.
The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.
San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)
|Trends At a Glance
|No. of Sales
|Sale vs. List Price
|Days on Market
|Days of Inventory
Year over year and related charts from MLS Listings
I pulled these directly from the MLS myself today (7/13/2022). The partial data from this month is included in gray, but as it is an incomplete picture of the month it should be taken with a grain of salt. As with the earlier chart, click to view the full size.
The San Jose Real estate market’s sale price to list price ratio – what a rollercoaster the last year has been! Notice the March data from 2020 – 2021 showing how the market has been raging like a wildfire! The streak of record breaking highs has been mind boggling! Now in June 2022, the streak has finally ended – and with a crash.
Notice that MOST YEARS, but not always, the sale price to list price ratio tends to peak around April with a rise between March and April and a dip from April to May. It fell a little in 2020, but that did not turn into the correction we all anticipated at the start of COVID. Look into late 2020 and you’ll see that all we were actually experiencing was a slight breather – very slight.
Now looking at the most recent numbers, winter 2022 started off raging hot and spring hit it’s peak for overbids in March and began to decline in April. While the sales to list price ratio is slipping, it’s still higher than most spring peaks.
Please keep reading below for more data and market analysis.
The architecturally diverse and entirely charming Rose Garden neighborhood in San Jose is perennially attractive to home buyers. Silicon Valley residents appreciate the easy access to downtown San Jose and travel routes, but perhaps even more are drawn by the beautiful park the San Jose Municipal Rose Garden. They also appreciate that this is not just another area filled with tract style homes. Many of the properties in this part of the 95126 zip code are custom or semi-custom built and enjoy a wide variety of styles. Here are a few images of houses in the Rose Garden neighborhood of San Jose:
Charming English Tudor style house
Lovely Spanish style house in the Rose Garden area of Central San Jose
Enchanting Mediterranean style house in the Rose Garden area
A two story home with a detached garage, which is typical in the Rose garden.
Where is the Rose Garden neighborhood?
Boundaries for the community are not well defined, but generally this neighborhood is considered to be South of 880, East of Bascom, West of the Alameda from 880 to Naglee Ave, and then West of Dana Ave to Lincoln High or Forest Ave. This area has over 1,000 homes. Some might say the area included is much larger, or much closer in to the park, but these lines generally represent the safe bet for what is considered Rose Garden neighborhood. Nearby neighborhoods include Shasta-Hanchett and Burbank. The Buena Vista neighborhood is not too far to the south, also. Santa Clara sits just a little north of the Rose Garden. Downtown San Jose is about 2 miles from these. (more…)
If you love older residential areas with classic architecture and a canopy of street trees, you’ll want to know about the Buena Vista neighborhood in San Jose.
Situated between downtown San Jose and the Valley Fair & Santana Row areas, there’s a lot going on that’s not far away.
Buena Vista neighborhood location
Where is the Buena Vista neighborhood? Roughly, it includes areas north of Hwy 280, south of San Carlos, east of Leigh and west of Meridian. It is considered part of Central San Jose by the local MLS.
The eastern half of the area is in the 95126 zip code, and the western section is in the 95128 zip code.
Nearby neighborhoods include Burbank, Shasta – Hanchett Park, Sunol – Midtown, and Rose Garden on the north side of 280. South of 280 lies Willow Glen and the Sherman Oaks neighborhood.
What are homes like in the Buena Vista neighborhood?
The historic Naglee Park Home Tour in San Jose will take place on Saturday April 21, 2018 from 10am to 4pm. Sponsored by the San Jose Woman’s Club, this is the seventh year of the annual tour. This year, proceeds go towards the renovation of the Women’s Club 1929 Spanish Revival Clubhouse.
Tours include access to seven homes along two adjacent blocks in Naglee Park, and shows off both their lovely living quarters and gardens. Visitors have the option of pre-ordering a lunch box, and wine and refreshments will be available at the Refreshment Garden. The tour also features a lecture and open-air market.
The SJWC does not have any information on their website as of yet, however the Eventbrite page, where you can purchase tickets, has details, as does the Facebook Event Page.
For tickets and information: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/sjwc-naglee-park-vintage-home-tour-tickets-42695715033
Historic Naglee Park Home Tour in San Jose was on the same date, April 21, back in 2012 for the 3rd annual tour.
The Naglee Park neighborhood in downtown San Jose is one of the most charming and historic areas in Silicon Valley. Known for older, beautifully maintained and updated homes, it boasts an annual historic homes tour.
Located just east of San Jose State University, it is extremely convenient for those involved with the college or who work downtown. Scenic Coyote Creek is its eastern boundary, Highway 280 the southern one, and E Santa Clara Street the northern edge of this community. This neighborhood is also close to the ever popular Happy Hollow Park and Zoo (which is in south San Jose, also along Coyote Creek).
What are homes in Naglee Park like?
Houses and homes in Naglee Park are primarily older, with the most historic being constructed in 1890. The average year built is 1935 as some of the properties were put up as recently as 2014 – though that is very unusual.
Naglee Park home – S 14th Street
Besides being older, often historic homes, what can we say about the Naglee Park homes? First, there are 859 single family homes there, plus 39 duplexes, plus other types of housing in the mix. So it is a good sized community.
Livable square footage in the single family homes ranges from a very modest 480 SF to an over sized 5007 SF of living space, with 1904 Sf being average. The average lot size is 6776 – pretty typical for most of San Jose, actually.
A variety of architectural styles can be found in Naglee Park, including Victorian, Craftsman, Mediterranean, and more. A few years ago, I had the pleasure of selling a house in Naglee Park which was a beautiful Italian-Mediterranean style with classic beauty.
What do homes cost in Naglee Park?
Right now, in early 2018, inventory is very low, and therefore our data is also low. In general, though expect to find homes selling for between $1 million and $2 million, but on the high end of that range in most cases. (It could be less if the home was small and in great disrepair, or more if the home were huge and newly renovated or rebuilt.) If you want to purchase a turnkey home in Naglee Park, it would be good to budget a minimum of $1,500,000 for a smaller home, and understand that it could go for close to $2 million.
Neighborhood data gathered February 20th, 2018
Are there any concerns with living in Naglee Park?
Like any downtown area in a big city, this is a place where you do lock your doors at night and can expect to sometimes deal with people wandering through who don’t live there and may be down on their luck. With the university nearby, parking may be an issue for some parts of Naglee Park. Coyote Creek does sometimes flood, but most of Naglee Park is not in a flood plain and was not too badly impacted by the floods in the winter of 2017. Ask most of the residents what they think, though, and they’ll tell you that the beauty and convenience of the neighborhood far outweigh any potential issues.
Read more – other downtown San Jose or central San Jose areas:
Each autumn, the St. Martin of Tours School puts on a fabulous tour of lovely homes in San Jose’s Rose Garden neighborhood. While anyone driving through this central San Jose area can appreciate the diverse and beautiful architecture, often the best features of these homes are found inside.
This year is the tour’s 22nd Anniversary! The homes tour is a large scale fundraising effort for the school. Tours are self-guided with hosts in each home ready to answer questions and share interesting historical facts and stories about the homes. On display will also be floral designs, artwork, and perhaps some treasures. The garden segment of the tour includes the Tea Garden, a spot to sit and enjoy complementary refreshments or a gourmet lunchbox (available to pre-order through October 6th with your tickets). The tour also features a boutique, where 100% of the proceeds will benefit St Martin of Tours School (credit cards accepted!) and a donation drawing.
Tour dates are Saturday, October 14th and Sunday, October 15th from 10am-4pm both days. No children under 12 are allowed on the tour. Come any time within the tour hours to begin, but note that it is recommended that visitors allot about 2 hours to view every home and the tour ends promptly at 4pm.
Tickets are available at the door, online, or through families in the school.
To read about the homes from last year’s tour, and to learn more about this year’s tour, and to purchase tickets, and more please visit the official Rose Garden Homes Tour website.
Yesterday on my way home from a final walk through on a property in Blossom Valley, I stopped by some open houses – following signs, just like a lot of consumers do. At one of the homes I spoke with a Realtor who’s starting to see a slowing in the real estate market. That hasn’t been my own experience, so I asked him about his take on things and he mentioned the rising inventory in areas where he’s active in Silicon Valley.
There are many ways to get a pulse on the market, but perhaps one of the easiest ways to check it is to see the sale price to list price ratio and the days on market. MLSListings, my local multiple listing service (of which I am a member), does some wonderful things with interactive graphs and charts, so I made use of that tool to see how San Jose is faring as a whole and also in some of the zip codes where I sometimes sell homes. The charts below are for single family homes (not condos, townhomes, duplexes, etc.) and are by zip code for all price ranges. Remember, stats are easily skewed one way or the other, and we might have seen different results if we teased it out by home size, lot size, school district, price point, presence of an in-ground pool, or any other factors. This is the “big picture”. First, then, San Jose as a whole.
What we see here is that homes are selling faster (shorter and shorter DOM or Days on Market) and a rising sales price to list price ratio. Both of these indicate a strong seller’s market for the city of San Jose as a whole. Next, we’ll list a sampling of zip codes in San Jose, primarily along the west side (where I tend to be more active in my sales) but not exclusively so. I’m putting these in numerical order.
In San Jose’s 95112 zip code, which is Downtown San Jose, it’s a mixed bag. The sale price to list price ratio is rising (seller’s market) but the days on market are also rising (softening market). This area would require more information – it could be that a few homes have been on the market for a very long time and skewing the stats, or homes in certain price points are just not selling. From this vantage, though, it looks like 95112 is mixed.
Next: 95117, 95118, 95120, 95123, 95125, 95126, 15129, 95136, 95148
Awhile back, a Realtor friend, Colleen Kulikowski, was visiting from the Buffalo & Niagara Falls area of New York. Together we attended the California Association of Realtors conference in San Jose, CAR EXPO, where we enjoyed some great sessions and at which I was a panelist one day on social media and real estate blogging. I very much wanted her to see more than just the inside of a conference center, though, so in the evenings and days before and after we saw some sights along the coast and went wine tasting in Los Gatos, Willow Glen, Monterey and central San Jose at the fabulously convenient J Lohr Tasting Room.
As we walked up to the door, I volunteered to pay for our tasting – just before noticing that it’s at no charge! This is pretty rare today in Santa Clara County, Monterey County or Santa Cruz County wineries. (When a tasting is free I always buy a bottle anyway if I enjoy the wine, and normally I do.)
Our hostess was very nice and gave us a printout of what could be tried that day and explained that we could select 6 and then she would “put them in order”. Colleen and I prefer different types of wines so had little overlap in our selections – it was great to have so much variety.We both liked a number of wines and both made purchases (so they did ok on the free tasting by us). (more…)
The beautiful Beckwith Building in downtown Los Gatos, California
I have been fortunate to have made 5 trips to Europe, one of them lasting 9 months, and will be returning again before the end of 2013 (this time to Belgium). It is so diverse, beautiful and compelling! Having experienced a little culture shock myself (when living in Florence, Italy, for one year of university), I’m very sympathetic about how hard an international move can be, and I understand that for Europeans moving to Silicon Valley, there can be an acute culture shock, particularly for those coming from more rural areas.
The bulk of Silicon Valley is located in Santa Clara County, which is at the southern end of the San Francisco Bay. In this county, there are approximately 1.8 million people, almost a million of them in the city of San Jose. Some areas, or districts, of San Jose have a distinctive character and are almost like towns or small cities themselves. So in this article I’ll mention both cities and towns, but also areas or districts of San Jose, which might appeal to our European transplants. Most of my comments will reference Santa Clara County or “south bay” locations, but I will also mention others on the San Francisco Peninsula and SF Bay Area too.
Architecture, Urban Centers and Charm
It is an unfortunate negative in Silicon Valley that much of our housing consists of ranch style tract homes, and truthfully, they are not exactly a work of art. New or newer homes tend to be on very tiny parcels of land (or “lots”) and for many people may simply feel too congested or crowded. But there are beautiful residential neighborhoods – you just need to know where to look! In many ways, the areas with higher charm can make our global home buyers feel more comfortable than if they were faced with only track, ranch neighborhoods.
Do you value unique, older architecture with Victorian, Craftsman, Tudor or other home styles? Then check out these areas:
- Within San Jose: the Japantown, Vendome, and Naglee Park areas of downtown San Jose. Also in central San Jose are the Rosegarden, Shasta Hanchett and Burbank neighborhoods which all boast some lovely older homes. Or, if you love classic Spanish Revival style homes with views, consider the old Alum Rock area of San Jose near the country club (golf course). The Willow Glen area of SJ (zip code 95120) is full of lovely old established neighborhoods with historic homes and tree lined streets. If your job takes you to downtown San Jose, all of these areas will be fairly close.
Please read the rest of this article on the Move2SiliconValley.com website:
If you arrived into Silicon Valley via Highway 101, driving south from San Francisco, you might believe that the Santa Clara Valley, the San Jose area and Silicon Valley as a whole has got to seem to be the ugliest place on earth. Although heavily traveled, that is not the “scenic route”.
So, too, if you are looking for a place to live and are groping to find a place that is reasonably priced, fairly safe and not a terrible commute distance. You might not even have “is nice looking” on your wish list. You might not think it’s possible if all you ever see are the ugly concrete tilt-up buildings in north San Jose, Santa Clara, Alviso, or anywhere along the 237 corridor. That area is an architectural wasteland.
Let me assure you: there are a lot of beautiful places in Silicon Valley where you can rent or buy a home. But how do you find them? It helps a lot to have a local give you a few pointers. I’ll give you some tips today on finding a scenic place to live.
Hills – An easy way to find a scenic location to make your home is to settle near the hills, especially those in the west valley (the Santa Cruz Mountains or the Coastal Range) as they are green year-round. Communities at the base of the west valley foothills include, in Santa Clara County, Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Cupertino, Saratoga, Monte Sereno, Los Gatos, and the Almaden Valley area of San Jose. All of these areas are adjacent to the hills or mountains and offer far better than average schools (many of them qualify as great – compare costs between these areas). (more…)