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The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market continues to be a deepening seller’s market with no signs of letting up.

First, some quick data from my RE Report via the bullets and chart below. There appears to be a small amount of undercounting or overcounting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, but the information is still good for tracking trends.

  • The May 2022 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes slipped again to 113.0% of asking (-3.1% from last month), but remains up from a year ago when was 111.2% (+1.6% from then)
  • Home prices are up roughly 17-19% from a year ago (almost a typical 20% down payment!)
    • The median sale price is $1,742,500 (a dip from the prior two months, but way up from a year ago, when it was $1,470,000 (+18.5%)
    • The average sale price was $1,864,960 (-3.2% from last month, and +17.6% from May 2021)
  • The days on market slowed a hair to 11 (same as in May 2021).

War, inflation, stock market, recession concerns – and real estate

Many of our home buyers are financially powered by tech stocks, stock options, and RSUs. When the stock market tanks, some buyers will rush to put their cash into real estate (the quip we often hear is that “real estate does not go to zero” and “at least you can live in it”.  At the same time, if the most amply capable buyers don’t want to sell their holdings at a 10% or more discount, that will impact how much they are willing to pay.

For some, the rising interest rates combined with the lower stock values have been a double whammy on affordability in a market still seeing historically high prices.

We are seeing slight signs of cooling in the market with fewer offers and some data points just a hint calmer than a month ago. Prices are not climbing like they were earlier this year, but they’re not falling either and interest rates are rising.

Nationwide, inventory is rising pretty noticeably, and we’re starting to see some growth around Silicon Valley, too. So are we getting back to normal inventory? Let’s have a look at what has historic inventory has looked like in San Jose. (If the chart is too small, click to see in full size.)

San Jose Historic Active Inventory of Listings 6-8-2022

At the start of the chart, 2010, the market was still reeling from the 2008 recession, but by 2017 we were seeing a strong sellers market with record low inventory. While listings are certainly up from 2021’s rock-bottom lows, it’s still extremely limited and nowhere near the inventory of more balanced years like 2013 and 2014.

So while inventory has been growing, there is still a shortage. If it continues to grow, prices should level out or drop. But will it be on par with interest rates rising? No one knows.

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

Trends At a Glance May 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,742,500 (-0.4%) $1,750,000 $1,470,000 (+18.5%)
Average Price $1,864,960 (-3.2%) $1,926,180 $1,585,920 (+17.6%)
No. of Sales 450 (-9.8%) 499 551 (-18.3%)
Pending 656 (-2.4%) 672 652 (+0.6%)
Active 441 (+19.5%) 369 295 (+49.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 113.0% (-3.1%) 116.6% 111.2% (+1.6%)
Days on Market 11 (+18.5%) 9 11 (-1.0%)
Days of Inventory 29 (+37.1%) 21 16 (+83.0%)

 

Year over year and related charts from MLS Listings

I pulled these directly from the MLS myself today (6/8/2022). The limited data from this month is included in red, but as it is an incomplete picture with data based only on home sales that closed between June 1th – June 8th it should be taken with a grain of salt. As with the earlier chart, click to view the full size.

The San Jose Real estate market’s sale price to list price ratio – notice the huge jump from last year, and then notice the ongoing streak of record breaking highs!

San Jose Historic Sales to List Price Ratio 6-8-2022

San Jose sale price to list price ratio – click to view larger

Notice that MOST YEARS, but not always, the sale price to list price ratio tends to peak around April with a rise between March and April and a dip from April to May. It fell a little in 2020, but that did not turn into the correction we all anticipated at the start of COVID. Look into late 2020 and you’ll see that all we were actually experiencing was a slight breather – very slight.

Now looking at the most recent numbers, winter 2022 started off raging hot and spring hit it’s peak for overbids in March and began to decline in April. While the sales to list price ratio is slipping, it’s still higher than any past year.

Please keep reading below.

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Season of Hope Free Concert Series at St. Joseph Cathedral Basilica in San Jose

Mark your calendars – December 12th begins the annual “Season of Hope” free concert series at the St. Joseph Cathedral Basilica in San Jose.  Performances are at 7:30 pm nightly from Dec 12 – 23 and last one hour.  All are welcome!

Find the complete list of who’s performing on which night on the website page for the Cathedral Basilica of San Jose’s Season of Hope Concert Series. A variety of musical styles and performers, many from schools, will perform. The final night features harp music. The Cathedral is located at 80 S Market Street, San Jose, CA 95112.

Happy holidays, one and all!

 

 

 

Obon Festival in Japantown

Buddhist Temple in Japantown

The Buddhist Temple in San Jose’s Japantown – one of only 3 Japantowns in the US

Any time is a good time to visit San Jose’s historic and lovely Japantown, but never is it more fun than during the annual Obon Festival!

This year, 2016,  the Obon Festival will take place July 9th (noon – 10pm) and 10th (noon – 8pm).

What does Obon mean?  The word means lantern but the festival is very ancient, more than 2,000 years old, and the celebration is in honor of one’s ancestors.

You’ll find delicious food, tables with goodies to buy, Taiko drumming (3 different groups per day), games to play, the Chidori Band, and dancers in colorful costumes.

Returning visitors, you’ll see something new in 2016!  For many years, the San Jose Buddhist Church community has been running a major capital campaign to build a new annex or gym. It was begun just after Obon 2015 and as of last week, it was completed – awaiting only the city’s building department to grant finals on the permits.

Because this is an immensely popular event, it’s advisable to carpool and use the website link below to check on parking options and shuttles.

The location is the San Jose Buddhist Church Betsuin, 640 N 5th Street, San Jose (easiest freeway access is 87 to the Taylor exit).

See the lineup of performers at the church’s website:

http://sjbetsuin.com/obon-2016/

 

Banner for the Obon Festival and link to the Buddhist Church of San Jose's web page for the event

Rebuilding “Little Italy” in San Jose – La Piccola L’Italia

Little Italy San JoseLittle Italy is looking fantastic! I’ve been there a few times and while there is still some work to be done, it’s definitely a very inviting place, with businesses worth patronizing and a beautiful, fun atmosphere.

The old houses, which are being converted to shops and restaurants, are looking good.  The brick courtyard is very inviting and leads between a couple of these businesses to the Guadalupe Park, where recently there was the annual Italian Family Festa San Jose (click on link to see a few photos of this fun event).

 

Little Italy Bel Bacio Restaurant

 

Dec 10, 2013: Update from my original post of Nov 2011:

Little Italy Mission StatementRecently I heard from Joshua DeVincenzi Melander, the Director of Membership for the San Jose Silicon Valley Chamber of Commerce, regarding work on Little Italy.  He wrote:

“I know a few years ago you wrote a piece about Little Italy on your site.  I thought I would reconnect with you and fill you in on our progess.  We purchased several homes that are being renovated as we speak and some for our Italian Cultural center/Museum, opened a new Italian Coffee shop, and have our 31 foot “Little Italy” arch close to starting construction.”

Sounds good!  Let’s go support it!

Nov 23, 2011   ORIGINAL ARTICLE

The Little Italy San Jose Foundation is in the process of rebuilding the original Italian settlement neighborhood in San Jose, which dated back to about the 1870s, with a cultural center, authentic Italian shops and restaurants, and restored buildings.  The cultural center offers Italian language classes for adults and children both. Eventually there will be an Italian-American Historical Museum too.

Where is Little Italy San Jose?

I had mistakenly thought that Little Italy San Jose would be in Willow Glen, but that’s not the case. This little neighborhood is close to the San Jose arena in downtown and includes Henry’s Hi-Life, which was the former Torino Hotel.  You can see a map of the exact area on the LittleItalySJ site. (In the video mentioned below, we learn that originally there were 3 Italian settlements, but this one was the first. The others are Willow Glen and Goosetown.) (more…)

San Jose’s Japantown: living history

Buddhist Temple in Japantown

The Buddhist Temple in San Jose’s Japantown – one of only 3 Japantowns in the US

San Jose’s Japantown is not just a neighborhood, but a community with a strong history. Only three Japantowns still exist in the US, and San Jose’s Japantown is the only one that remains in its original location. Issei (first generation immigrants) were drawn to the Santa Clara Valley in the late 1800s for agriculture, and somewhere between 1890 and 1900 they founded Japantown, also called Nihonmachi, next to the site of San Jose’s second Chinatown, known as Heinlenville, which no longer stands. It became a cultural center, safe from the hostile anti-immigrant attitudes of the time.  Stores sold familiar products, there were restaurants, boarding houses, social clubs and sports, a bath house, and work and recreation for the Japanese pioneers. As with other groups, the first immigrants from Japan were mostly male, so this “bachelor society” also entertained in gambling houses and brothels.

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Is the San Jose, CA, residential real estate market cooling?

Yesterday on my way home from a final walk through on a property in Blossom Valley, I stopped by some open houses – following signs, just like a lot of consumers do.  At one of the homes I spoke with a Realtor who’s starting to see a slowing in the real estate market.  That hasn’t been my own experience, so I asked him about his take on things and he mentioned the rising inventory in areas where he’s active in Silicon Valley.

There are many ways to get a pulse on the market, but perhaps one of the easiest ways to check it is to see the sale price to list price ratio and the days on market.  MLSListings, my local multiple listing service (of which I am a member), does some wonderful things with interactive graphs and charts, so I made use of that tool to see how San Jose is faring as a whole and also in some of the zip codes where I sometimes sell homes.  The charts below are for single family homes (not condos, townhomes, duplexes, etc.) and are by zip code for all price ranges.  Remember, stats are easily skewed one way or the other, and we might have seen different results if we teased it out by home size, lot size, school district, price point, presence of an in-ground pool, or any other factors.  This is the “big picture”.  First, then, San Jose as a whole.

 

San Jose AV DOM and SP to LP ratio all prices

 

What we see here is that homes are selling faster (shorter and shorter DOM or Days on Market) and a rising sales price to list price ratio.  Both of these indicate a strong seller’s market for the city of San Jose as a whole. Next, we’ll list a sampling of zip codes in San Jose, primarily along the west side (where I tend to be more active in my sales) but not exclusively so.  I’m putting these in numerical order.

 

Real estate market trends in San Jose 95112 - Downtown San Jose

 

In San Jose’s 95112 zip code, which is Downtown San Jose, it’s a mixed bag.  The sale price to list price ratio is rising (seller’s market) but the days on market are also rising (softening market).  This area would require more information – it could be that a few homes have been on the market for a very long time and skewing the stats, or homes in certain price points are just not selling.  From this vantage, though, it looks like 95112 is mixed.

Next: 95117, 95118, 95120, 95123, 95125, 95126, 15129, 95136, 95148

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How Old Are Homes in San Jose & Silicon Valley?

white horse fenceMany newcomers to the San Jose & Silicon Valley areas want to buy new homes (or newer ones).  Santa Clara County, though, had a big “building boom” after World War II ranging from the 1940s through the 70s.  At the end of the building frenzy, most of the land was taken.  More importantly, most of the really good land was built up.

How old is the “average” San Jose home for sale?  Probably about 45 – 50 years old, on average.  Depending on where you’re looking, precisely, the homes could be younger or older on average.

There are some nice communities of new and younger homes in Silicon Valley, but there aren’t a lot of them.  Most of the new home communities have houses on small lots.  Some are near high voltage power lines (homes on Taft in San Jose’s Cambrian Park area) or next to freeways (Summerhill development off Samaritan Drive in San Jose).

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Which areas in Silicon Valley are the most European feeling?

Beckwith Building in Downtown Los Gatos, CA

The beautiful Beckwith Building in downtown Los Gatos, California

I have been fortunate to have made 5 trips to Europe, one of them lasting 9 months, and will be returning again before the end of 2013 (this time to Belgium).  It is so diverse, beautiful and compelling! Having experienced a little culture shock myself (when living in Florence, Italy, for one year of university), I’m very sympathetic about how hard an international move can be, and I understand that for Europeans moving to Silicon Valley, there can be an acute culture shock, particularly for those coming from more rural areas.

The bulk of Silicon Valley is located in Santa Clara County, which is at the southern end of the San Francisco Bay.  In this county, there are approximately 1.8 million people, almost a million of them in the city of San Jose.  Some areas, or districts, of San Jose have a distinctive character and are almost like towns or small cities themselves.  So in this article I’ll mention both cities and towns, but also areas or districts of San Jose, which might appeal to our European transplants.   Most of my comments will reference Santa Clara County or “south bay” locations, but I will also mention others on the San Francisco Peninsula and SF Bay Area too.

Architecture, Urban Centers and Charm

It is an unfortunate negative in Silicon Valley that much of our housing consists of ranch style tract homes, and truthfully, they are not exactly a work of art.  New or newer homes tend to be on very tiny parcels of land (or “lots”) and for many people may simply feel too congested or crowded. But there are beautiful residential neighborhoods – you just need to know where to look!  In many ways, the areas with higher charm can make our global home buyers feel more comfortable than if they were faced with only track, ranch neighborhoods.

Do you value unique, older architecture with Victorian, Craftsman, Tudor or other home styles? Then check out these areas:

  • Within San Jose: the Japantown, Vendome, and Naglee Park areas of downtown San Jose. Also in central San Jose are the Rosegarden, Shasta Hanchett and Burbank neighborhoods which all boast some lovely older homes.  Or, if you love classic Spanish Revival style homes with views, consider the old Alum Rock area of San Jose near the country club (golf course).  The Willow Glen area of SJ (zip code 95120) is full of lovely old established neighborhoods with historic homes and tree lined streets.  If your job takes you to downtown San Jose, all of these areas will be fairly close.

Please read the rest of this article on the Move2SiliconValley.com website:

http://www.move2siliconvalley.com/which-silicon-valley-areas-are-the-most-european-feeling/

Handmade Chocolates at Schurra’s in San Jose: 100 years of sweetening life in the valley!

There’s a lot to love about central San Jose, especially near Santa Clara University (that’s my bias: I grew up near there) There are lovely neighborhoods with classic architecture such as The Rose Garden and Shasta-Hanchett. There’s a lot of good eating and entertainment in that part of the valley so close to downtown San Jose too, including Greenlee’s amazing cinnamon bread (you must try their highly prized cinnamon bread), fun & upscale Santana Row.

It might be too easy to miss a local, but low key landmark  where you can find hand made chocolates: Schurra’s in San Jose – right on the Alameda, perhaps 2 miles from SCU and one or two from downtown San Jose proper.  Schurra’s has been a part of central San Jose for  100 years – it was founded in 1912 and managed to survive the Great Depression and now appears to be thriving through our Great Recession.

Step into Schurra’s and breathe deeply.  The smell of the rich chocolates is almost intoxicating!  There’s a huge variety so there should be no trouble finding something for everyone in your party!  There are chews, truffles, creams and nuts. Dark chocolate and milk chocolate.  Dried fruits. Gift boxes galore.  Holiday specials.  You name it, they seem to have it.

There’s even a little cooler full of ice cream, too.

So hop on your bike, walk or drive your car and visit this very cool old icon of San Jose.  It’s goodness that harkens to a bygone era when this valley was known for it’s produce and not its high tech, when it was called The Valley of Heart’s Delight.  Take a nibble…or two….  Enjoy a taste of living history! (While you’re in the neighborhood you ought to go to Greenlee’s too and get some of that cinnamon bread for later! It’s practically across the street and is another historic business in Santa Clara County.)

Schurra’s     840 The Alameda    San Jose, CA 95126     (408) 289-1562

Related:
Out near Los Gatos, another great shop to visit is Chocolate Dream Box.  I wrote about it on my Live in Los Gatos blog. Check it out!  Or in Santa Cruz, swing by Mackenzie’s.

 

 

 

A view from Downtown San Jose in Autumn

Recently Jim & I had an appointment at a high rise in downtown San Jose near the Hotel De Anza. It was a clear day and the view was lovely, so I took a few photos and stitched them together to share.  Hope you enjoy it!  For those not from the Santa Clara Valley, this is looking east.  The hills you see are green during the rainy season and yellow-brown in the dry summer months.

 

A view from Downtown San Jose in Autumn