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The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market remains in transition. While it is still a clear seller’s market, things are much cooler than what they were earlier this year. Demand may have shrunk, but so has inventory, so we’re not seeing dramatic cooling.

First, some quick data from my RE Report via the bullets and chart below. There appears to be a small amount of undercounting or overcounting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, but the information is still good for tracking trends.

  • The October 2022 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes dipped to 99.7% of asking (-0.6% from last month), and remains below last year for the fifth month in a row.
  • Monthly home prices are up a sliver from a year ago after falling below last year in August for the first time since 2019
    • The median sale price remains $1,450,000 – astonishingly consistent with the month before and with last year!
    • The average sale price was $1,582,630 (+1.7% from the month before, and +2.4% from last year)
  • The days on market held relatively stable at an average of just under a month at 27 days, almost twice as long as last year.

War, inflation, stock market, recession concerns – and real estate

Many of our home buyers are financially powered by tech stocks, stock options, and RSUs. When the stock market tanks, some buyers will rush to put their cash into real estate (the quip we often hear is that “real estate does not go to zero” and “at least you can live in it”.

For some, the rising interest rates combined with the lower stock values have been a double whammy on affordability in a market still seeing sky high prices. If the most amply capable buyers don’t want to sell their holdings at a 10% or more discount from what they were, that will impact how much they are willing to pay.

We are finally seeing signs of cooling in the market with homes recieving fewer offers than they may have at the peak of the market, and prices are coming down. That said, much of the entry-level market is still raging hot. The best homes, when appropriately priced and marketed, are still recieving multiple offers and selling well above asking.

However one thing is keeping the market hot: limited inventory. Nationwide, inventory has begun to drop again and overall we remain in a housing supply shortage (each market will vary, of course). So how far off are we from “normal” inventory levels? Let’s have a look at historic active listings in San Jose. (If the chart is too small, click to see in full size.)

San Jose Historic Active Inventory 2022-11-15

At the start of the chart, 2010, the market was still reeling from the 2008 recession, but by 2017 we were seeing a strong sellers market with record low inventory. While listings are certainly up from 2021’s rock-bottom lows, it’s still limited and well below that of more balanced market years like 2013 and 2014.

Will the shortage of homes lead to wild market action like earlier this year? Unlikely. With everything else that’s changed such as the interest rates rising. But will it continue to cool or will it heat up again in autumn? We’ll have to wait and see.

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

Trends At a Glance Oct 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,450,000 (0.0%) $1,450,000 $1,450,000 (0.0%)
Average Price $1,582,630 (+1.7%) $1,556,090 $1,544,870 (+2.4%)
No. of Sales 329 (-12.0%) 374 519 (-36.6%)
Pending 516 (-11.2%) 581 624 (-17.3%)
Active 357 (-19.0%) 441 249 (+43.4%)
Sale vs. List Price 99.7% (-0.6%) 100.4% 108.5% (-8.1%)
Days on Market 27 (-3.9%) 28 15 (+88.0%)
Days of Inventory 33 (-4.8%) 34 14 (+126.2%)

 

Please keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

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The Evergreen area of San Jose

Evergreen area of San Jose (Silicon Valley)San Jose’s Evergreen district is in a seller’s market that’s cooled significantly from last spring, but appears to have left the worst of the freefall. This article will examine the data from sales and active listings in this residential real estate market with live and monthly updates. Here are a few points from the latest Evergreen single family housing market update, provided in more detail below:

  • October sales took an average of 39 days on market to sell – faster than September, but 3x as long as last year!
  • The sales to list price ratio fell once more to 97.2%. It has plunged from 112.4% of asking in May down to 98.4% in July, rising to 99.5% in August before dropping again in September – it’s still cooling, but we appear to be past the most severe drops.
  • Median sales prices have risen month-over-month and year-over-year.

The Evergreen area of San Jose includes many newer homes and communities. It is a desirable Silicon Valley community as Evergreen is scenic and most of the district enjoys highly regarded schools, particularly at the elementary and middle school levels.

Evergreen Real Estate Market Report: Single Family Homes

The Re Report considers all of the Evergreen district together. Please find the full report on my Real Estate Report for the Evergreen area of San Jose. Further down, you’ll see live charts with more zip code specific details.

The market is still showing signs of cooling. Inventory held relatively stable month-over-month, but is up significantly from last year. Pending and closed sales shrank again. Prices are up since last month with the median sales price up from last year, but the sales to list price ratio continues to fall and remains under 100% for the fourth month in a row, hitting the lowest percentage we’ve seen in over decade – the third time this record has been broken this year. There’s still a good deal of activity in the Evergreen market.

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a Glance Oct 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,795,000 (+8.8%) $1,650,000 $1,732,500 (+3.6%)
Average Price $1,726,920 (+2.7%) $1,681,580 $1,919,780 (-10.0%)
No. of Sales 26 (-10.3%) 29 42 (-38.1%)
Pending 53 (-14.5%) 62 81 (-34.6%)
Active 40 (-2.4%) 41 23 (+73.9%)
Sale vs. List Price 97.2% (-0.8%) 97.9% 106.7% (-8.9%)
Days on Market 39 (-18.9%) 49 13 (+209.2%)
Days of Inventory 46 (+12.6%) 41 16 (+180.9%)

 

Altos Research: Evergreen real estate market for single family homes or houses by zip code

95148

Evergreen of San Jose 95148 Real-Time Market Profile

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The Ranch on Silver Creek: golf course living in Evergreen with views

The Ranch on Silver Creek is a newer subdivision in the Evergreen area of San Jose with the 95138 zip code (that zip code is shared with part of South San Jose on the valley floor). It enjoys a lovely knoll top location – and recently I flew over it and grabbed a nice image to share with my readers here:

 

Aerial view of The Ranch on Silver Creek

Aerial view of The Ranch on Silver Creek (taken by MPH in January 2019)

What is the neighborhood like on The Ranch on Silver Creek?

Mediterranean or contemporary style homes were built there between 2003 and 2006 – which makes them practically “brand new” by Silicon Valley real estate standards! The community is set around a golf course & clubhouse and is nestled in the hills such that there are many different views available from one area to the next without leaving the neighborhood. Many San Jose area home buyers strongly prefer newer homes in newer communities, rather than a remodeled home in an older neighborhood, and this area will certainly fill that requirement. It’s a tidy area with sidewalks which invite a comfortable stroll to discover the sights.

 

Evergreen The Ranch view of Downtown San Jose

In Evergreen: The Ranch on Silver Creek’s view of Downtown San Jose

What are homes like at The Ranch?

There are a few hundred homes, so there’s quite a bit of variety there.  Entry level townhomes are nice, but fairly modest, and at the other end of the spectrum there are estate quality properties on large view lots.

Houses range from about 2,000 square feet to more than 4,000 square feet. The tiniest parcels or lots are less than 4,000 SF and are townhomes or town houses, and the largest homes, generally, sit on land sized between 1/3 and 1/2 acre (though most are not so big).

Many houses are 2 stories, but there’s a fair number of single story homes, too. Most properties include an attached 2 car garage.

High ceilings, open floor plans, plenty of windows with lots of natural light are all typical here at the Ranch.

As with most newer construction, these houses are built on slab foundations.

 

Evergreen the Ranch subdivision 1

Evergreen the Ranch subdivision 1

 

What does it cost to buy a house at The Ranch?  How’s the real estate market?

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The Villages

The Villages

The Villages ClubhouseNestled in the rolling foothills of San Jose’s southeastern Evergreen area is a hidden gem known simply as the Villages.

As you drive up to the secured entrance, you’ll spot a sign: The Villages a Country Club Community. They take that claim to heart. A gated, community-oriented neighborhood centered around numerous country club amenities creates an immersive home for its residents. However this is a senior community, so to live at the Villages you have to be 55 or older (also known as an adult community or seniors community). Therefore many residents are retirees who are active, love entertaining guests, and don’t want to mow the lawn every week. But you don’t have to be a resident to enjoy the country club side of things.

 

The Villages

Only about a 20 minute drive from downtown San Jose, this area was once agricultural land with vineyards. It is still home to the impressive William Wehner historic mansion, constructed in 1888 and designed by architect David Burnham (this estate is currently closed to the public). The mansion is sometimes called the Cribari Mansion for its later owners, a name that was adopted by the first Village development. The original stone columns (circa 1891) for the estate’s original drive still stand as a prominent feature on one of the golf courses.

Today, the community is still surrounded by untouched rolling hills. And that natural beauty is staying put, as the Villages owns 550 acres of open space with community hiking trails. (more…)

Silicon Valley Homes for Sale Near Golf Courses in the Foothill Areas

With our 300 sunny days per year in Silicon Valley (at least most years!), golf is a sport enjoyed year round here in the San Jose area.  Living near a golf course, or having a golf course view, is highly desirable as it provides scenic open space as well as convenience for avid golfers.

Silicon Valley Golf Homes, Silicon Valley Golf Properties

There are beautiful courses throughout the South Bay Area and it’s possible to find small condos with views of them at fairly affordable prices (Sunnyvale’s Sunken Gardens area is one of them).  Today, though, I want to provide a list of homes for sale near golf courses in the foothill areas of Silicon Valley.  Many of these will also be luxury homes. So the MLS list of these houses on the market which you can browse includes these areas:

San Jose areas including Evergreen & Silver Creek, Santa Teresa, Blossom Valley and Almaden; Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Saratoga, Cupertino, and Los Altos.

There are golf courses to be found in other parts of Santa Clara County too (Mountain View, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara and more) – let me know if you are interested in these parts and I can send you a link for searching them for similar residential real estate.

Here are a available or recently sold homes near to golf clubs:

 

 

 

 

8865 Wine Valley Circle San Jose

8865 Wine Valley Circle San Jose

8865 Wine Valley Circle, San Jose, is a wonderful home for sale (my listing) in The Villages Golf  & Country Club, a 55+ community. This detached, single story house provides 2 bedrooms plus den or home office, 2.5 bathrooms, living-dining areas plus a family room open to the nook and island kitchen.  Built in 1997, this single family home enjoys tall ceilings and abundant natural light in an appealing, open floor plan.

Feel free to visit the Virtual Tour here, or keep reading for the details!

 

8865 Wine Valley Circle San Jose - in The Villages Golf & Country Club area in Evergreen

8865 Wine Valley Circle, San Jose CA 95135

 

8865 Wine Valley Circle – quick facts:

  • Offered at $1,050,000
  • MLS # ML81778777
  • 2 bedrooms + den or home office
  • 2.5 bathrooms
  • 2256 SF of living space
  • 4977 SF lot
  • single story, detached house
  • built in 1997
  • central air conditioning
  • dual pane windows
  • 3 sun tunnels
  • high ceilings, recessed lights
  • laundry room
  • large 2 car garage with extra storage
  • nearly carpet free (only carpeting is in one closet) – most of the home has wood laminate flooring
  • The Villages is a senior community, 55+, located in the Evergreen area of San Jose

 

Kitchen at 8865 Wine Valley Circle in The Villages of Evergreen

Island kitchen and nook

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Is the San Jose, CA, residential real estate market cooling?

Yesterday on my way home from a final walk through on a property in Blossom Valley, I stopped by some open houses – following signs, just like a lot of consumers do.  At one of the homes I spoke with a Realtor who’s starting to see a slowing in the real estate market.  That hasn’t been my own experience, so I asked him about his take on things and he mentioned the rising inventory in areas where he’s active in Silicon Valley.

There are many ways to get a pulse on the market, but perhaps one of the easiest ways to check it is to see the sale price to list price ratio and the days on market.  MLSListings, my local multiple listing service (of which I am a member), does some wonderful things with interactive graphs and charts, so I made use of that tool to see how San Jose is faring as a whole and also in some of the zip codes where I sometimes sell homes.  The charts below are for single family homes (not condos, townhomes, duplexes, etc.) and are by zip code for all price ranges.  Remember, stats are easily skewed one way or the other, and we might have seen different results if we teased it out by home size, lot size, school district, price point, presence of an in-ground pool, or any other factors.  This is the “big picture”.  First, then, San Jose as a whole.

 

San Jose AV DOM and SP to LP ratio all prices

 

What we see here is that homes are selling faster (shorter and shorter DOM or Days on Market) and a rising sales price to list price ratio.  Both of these indicate a strong seller’s market for the city of San Jose as a whole. Next, we’ll list a sampling of zip codes in San Jose, primarily along the west side (where I tend to be more active in my sales) but not exclusively so.  I’m putting these in numerical order.

 

Real estate market trends in San Jose 95112 - Downtown San Jose

 

In San Jose’s 95112 zip code, which is Downtown San Jose, it’s a mixed bag.  The sale price to list price ratio is rising (seller’s market) but the days on market are also rising (softening market).  This area would require more information – it could be that a few homes have been on the market for a very long time and skewing the stats, or homes in certain price points are just not selling.  From this vantage, though, it looks like 95112 is mixed.

Next: 95117, 95118, 95120, 95123, 95125, 95126, 15129, 95136, 95148

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How Old Are Homes in San Jose & Silicon Valley?

white horse fenceMany newcomers to the San Jose & Silicon Valley areas want to buy new homes (or newer ones).  Santa Clara County, though, had a big “building boom” after World War II ranging from the 1940s through the 70s.  At the end of the building frenzy, most of the land was taken.  More importantly, most of the really good land was built up.

How old is the “average” San Jose home for sale?  Probably about 45 – 50 years old, on average.  Depending on where you’re looking, precisely, the homes could be younger or older on average.

There are some nice communities of new and younger homes in Silicon Valley, but there aren’t a lot of them.  Most of the new home communities have houses on small lots.  Some are near high voltage power lines (homes on Taft in San Jose’s Cambrian Park area) or next to freeways (Summerhill development off Samaritan Drive in San Jose).

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Finding scenic places in which to live in Silicon Valley

View from Montevina Road in Los Gatos, Scenic Silicon ValleyIf you arrived into Silicon Valley via Highway 101, driving south from San Francisco, you might believe that the Santa Clara Valley, the San Jose area and Silicon Valley as a whole has got to seem to be the ugliest place on earth. Although heavily traveled, that is not the “scenic route”.

So, too, if you are looking for a place to live and are groping to find a place that is reasonably priced, fairly safe and not a terrible commute distance. You might not even have “is nice looking” on your wish list. You might not think it’s possible if all you ever see are the ugly concrete tilt-up buildings in north San Jose, Santa Clara, Alviso, or anywhere along the 237 corridor.  That area is an architectural wasteland.

Let me assure you: there are a lot of beautiful places in Silicon Valley where you can rent or buy a home. But how do you find them? It helps a lot to have a local give you a few pointers.  I’ll give you some tips today on finding a scenic place to live.

Hills – An easy way to find a scenic location to make your home is to settle near the hills, especially those in the west valley (the Santa Cruz Mountains or the Coastal Range) as they are green year-round. Communities at the base of the west valley foothills include, in Santa Clara County, Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Cupertino, Saratoga, Monte Sereno, Los Gatos, and the Almaden Valley area of San Jose. All of these areas are adjacent to the hills or mountains and offer far better than average schools (many of them qualify as great – compare costs between these areas). (more…)

Average Days on Market and Sale Price to List Price Ratio in Santa Clara County Communities

Today let’s look at the Santa Clara County real estate market, the days on market (DOM) and the sale price to list price ratio for houses and duet homes (single family homes). This will primarily be graphs that I created using MLSListings.com (our local MLS, to which I am a paying member).  We’ll consider the county as a whole and various cities or towns within it, plus areas of San Jose, as it has about a million residents.

First: Santa Clara County homes over the last year.  Please note the decreasing days on market, the increasing sale price to list price ratio in recent months.  This is exactly what an appreciating market looks like!

 

Santa Clara County average days on market and sale price to list price ratio

Santa Clara County average days on market and sale price to list price ratio

 

Next, let’s have a peek at how some of the hottest markets in Silicon Valley look, starting with Sunnyvale. It is odd to see any kind of a blip on the sale price to list price ratio.  Are buyers giving some push-back?  We keep hearing stories of homes selling 30% or more over list price with gobs of offers.  So the SP – LP ratio change is a surprise.

 

Sunnyvale average days on market and sale price to list price ratio Sunnyvale

Sunnyvale average days on market and sale price to list price ratio Sunnyvale

 

Palo Alto is always the hottest ticket in town. (more…)