San Jose (all areas)
San Jose (all areas)
The San Jose real estate market is a strong seller’s market, though pricing is close to flat for November sales (contracts ratified in October) as compared to the prior month and year. However, in November we saw a big uptick in buyer interest. We see this in the San Jose housing market data, below, but I’m also seeing it in my real estate practice.
First please find the Altos Research Charts, a live feed of data on the housing markets in San Jose. You will then also find the RE Report, charts with statistics comparing sales in the last month and comparing them month-over-month and year-over-year. These are both the usual tools I use to gauge a market. Directly below are links to the market analysis of specific neighborhoods in San Jose. Some of these, where I work the most, are updated monthly, and others are updated every few months.
Altos Charts for the San Jose real estate market as a Whole – automatically updated each week – single family homes
First, the market profile and then the basic charts for single family homes or houses in San Jose. FYI, Altos uses LIST prices. The RE Report further down uses SOLD prices (which is part of the reason why I utilize both).
This reak time market San Jose housing market profile (last updated 12/24/2019 as of this writing) shows on the graph a steady decline of the list prices, declining inventory, rising days on market, and declining rent rates. That being said, the Market Action Index still shows a Strong Seller’s Market that’s going nowhere fast. The Median List Price (for condos and houses combined) is approximately $1,100,00.
The market in early 2019 began heating up in a seasonally normal pattern but has now leveled off with a little up, a little down, but not too far from 20 days to sell. Prices are similarly a bit up and down but overall seeming to level out.
Today I want for us to take a quick look at the seasonal patterns for days to sell which tend to be present for houses selling in the city of San Jose over the course of a year. Please note that the pattern can be similar – but the depth or severity of the pattern can vary quite dramatically year to year, or between one location or price point and another.
I really like taking a multi-year view (which almost no one seems to do, it is nearly always only year over year) to get a broader sense of what is normal – or at least what appears to be a regular pattern.
In the graph below, you’ll see that most years see inventory rising in January or February. We had a highly overheated pattern in all of 2017 and early 2018, and visually it’s pretty evident that they were moving to a beat of a different drummer.
Now let’s look at the actual numbers as of today, June 12, 2019. This number may be different when June is completed, but right now we have 23 days to sell on average. That is longer than 2014-2018, but shorter than 2013 (which was a good year).
Compared to 2015 to 2018, San Jose’s current average days to sell of 23 seems quite high. Go back a little more to 2013 and 2014, though, and it’s not outrageous at all. Or Google what the “average days to sell” is like in most of the U.S. and you’ll find that this is not a high number at all.
Is it harder to sell a house in San Jose now than a year or two ago? Yes, absolutely! Is it a buyer’s market? No! It is becoming more balanced, though. I would call this a healthy market. Perhaps a normalizing market. Homes which are priced well, marketed well, easy enough to see and so on are selling in well under a month. That’s a good market. For a little perspective, check out the June numbers from 2002 through 2012 (the MLS won’t let me get stats further back that 2002).
Altos charts for single family homes (houses and duet homes) in San Jose CA
Using the Altos Charts (I have a subscription), here’s a view of 4 pricing tiers within San Jose residential real estate which is for sale – not sold – right now. Days to sell charts the success stories, the ones that go under contract! This info charts ALL LISTINGS which are active or as yet unsold.
Have a look:
A normal market is not a bad one. Buyers are less rushed, Sellers who are reasonably aggressive on price, condition, marketing, access, etc. are having success. Overpriced homes, homes with too many issues or which are too hard to see are a different story.
Interested in buying or selling a home in San Jose? Please reach out to me!
In west San Jose with the 95129 zip code, near the borders of Saratoga, Cupertino, and Campbell, you’ll find the much beloved Happy Valley neighborhood. The nearby school, which is highly regarded, is Country Lane Elementary, so the area is also known as the Country Lane neighborhood. This is a quiet pocket of understated but very comfortable ranch style homes on lovely tree lined streets.
I have a lovely listing in this neighborhood at 4843 Englewood Dr, San Jose, CA 95129 – please click on the link and check out all the details and photos!
Where is the Country Lane or Happy Valley neighborhood?
The Country Lane or Happy Valley neighborhood is bordered by Doyle Road, Saratoga Avenue, Prospect Road, and Lawrence Expressway. It is almost shaped like a triangle – but not quite. At the southern tip of the area is a commercial complex with a number of shops, restaurants, a hardware store, and much more. Just across Saratoga Avenue from there is Westgate, and “kitty corner” is El Paseo de Saratoga (with movie theaters as well as stores and restaurants). Prospect has more shops, including a See’s Candies, a car wash, eateries, you name it.
How is the commute from this part of West San Jose? What’s nearby?
Depending on where you live in the Country Lane or Happy Valley community, it is about 1.5 miles to either Highway 280 or Highway 85, but you may find that you can commute via Saratoga Avenue, Lawrence Expressway, or San Tomas Expressway. Look at the map, below, to notice how very convenient this location is!
From this area, it may be a comfortable stroll or bike ride to a number of shops and eateries. Continue reading
The historic Naglee Park Home Tour in San Jose will take place on Saturday April 21, 2018 from 10am to 4pm. Sponsored by the San Jose Woman’s Club, this is the seventh year of the annual tour. This year, proceeds go towards the renovation of the Women’s Club 1929 Spanish Revival Clubhouse.
Tours include access to seven homes along two adjacent blocks in Naglee Park, and shows off both their lovely living quarters and gardens. Visitors have the option of pre-ordering a lunch box, and wine and refreshments will be available at the Refreshment Garden. The tour also features a lecture and open-air market.
For tickets and information: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/sjwc-naglee-park-vintage-home-tour-tickets-42695715033
One question I get a lot is this: what does it cost to buy a 4 bedroom, 2 bath house of about 2000 square feet?
So to answer this question, let’s see what houses like this are selling for (4 bed, 2 bath, appx 2000 SF or 185 square meters) and see how the cost looks in one Santa Clara Count y / Silicon Valley area versus another.
Today I compared several areas and cities using this criteria: single family homes of 1800 – 2200 SF, 3-5 bedrooms, 2-3 bathrooms, on lot sizes of 6000 SF to 10,000 SF. Normally I would chart this over the last 2 months, or 60 days, but because of the low inventory causing the sellers market I have expanded the search to the last 3 months, or 90 days, for a better range. As of this writing, Saratoga only had one sale over the last 90 days, so data for that segment may or may not be a good average.
Here’s how it shakes out in the “west valley areas” along the Highway 85 corridor, most of which are known to have good to great public schools. What areas are most affordable? One way of analyzing this is the “price per square foot” figure. Whenever I update the chart, I re-arrange the order of the cities from high to low based on the price per square foot, although there’s usually minimal movement.
To compare, here are the numbers from the this past January 26, 2017. There were fewer sales, so the search range was bumped up to 120 days instead of 90 days (and Los Altos was so low, it was individually searched at 180 days). You might notice price per square foot appears lower across the board in January compared to July. This is most likely because the market has heated up over spring and summer, which you can also see in the DOM.
Below are my results from the same search back in September 18, 2015. By comparison, you can tell that Santa Clara’s average Price has increased, pushing it above Almaden and Campbell.
How competitive is the market? Have a look at the DOM or “Days on Market” figure. All of these days on market are short, but they range from low to heart-skippingly fast.
In most cases, the priciest and most desirable places have either the best schools or shortest commute location or both (Palo Alto and Cupertino have both). Had I ranked these for school scores, you’d find that Cambrian is fairly high up and a good “bang for the buck” location – though not a super short commute for folks who work in Mountain View (though not so bad for people working in Cupertino). Almaden, too, offers a good value for the quality of the schools, homes, and neighborhoods, though the commute is longer. None of these is especially close to North San Jose (where a major employer is Cisco).
It should also be noted that in some of the smaller communities with less on the market these numbers may not be as stable as others with more data – for instance, Los Altos only had four homes sold, the second lowest, matching this criteria within the 90 days of collected data, and therefore may not be as accurate as others, such as the Blossom Valley area of San Jose with the most data at 38 homes sold. For these smaller communities with less data, it is beneficial to look at them more closely – Saratoga, for instance, has 3 different high school districts which have an impact the real estate prices. This chart is really just a snapshot to give a general sense of the relative affordability of these markets to one another. Continue reading
Close to the Los Gatos border sits one of the more affordable Cambrian neighborhoods in San Jose and the west valley generally. It enjoys lovely views of the hills, great public schools with high API scores, a neighborhood private school to boot, and convenient access to freeways and stores. There’s no sign, marker or gateway to the area, so many of its residents are probably unaware that the official name to it is Cambrian Gardens.
This neighborhood provides an incredible “bang for the buck” for home buyers wanting excellent schools and not wanting to pay luxury home pricing. In many ways, it’s a “sleeper” – meaning that many people don’t know it’s there, but it’s a good deal!
Located close to the Guadalupe Creek and the foothills of the coastal mountain range, the Montevideo neighborhood enjoys tree lined streets and scenic green views of the hills. Houses and yards are nicely kept. It is fairly convenient for commuting as it’s not too deeply into the San Jose area of Almaden Valley. About 500 residents call this beautiful neighborhood home.
In addition to the pleasant vistas, the Montevideo home owners and residents enjoy the cabaña, which includes a community pool, clubhouse, recreation grounds (shuffleboard, volleyball court and more), a fun swim team for kids. There are very few cabañas in the west valley, so this is a big draw.
Adjacent is the very highly regarded Guadalupe Elementary School, which can boast API scores in the 900s (it was 941 in the 2013 study). Continue reading