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The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market continues to be a deepening seller’s market with no signs of letting up.

First, some quick data from my RE Report via the bullets and chart below. There appears to be a small amount of undercounting or overcounting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, but the information is still good for tracking trends.

  • The May 2022 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes slipped again to 113.0% of asking (-3.1% from last month), but remains up from a year ago when was 111.2% (+1.6% from then)
  • Home prices are up roughly 17-19% from a year ago (almost a typical 20% down payment!)
    • The median sale price is $1,742,500 (a dip from the prior two months, but way up from a year ago, when it was $1,470,000 (+18.5%)
    • The average sale price was $1,864,960 (-3.2% from last month, and +17.6% from May 2021)
  • The days on market slowed a hair to 11 (same as in May 2021).

War, inflation, stock market, recession concerns – and real estate

Many of our home buyers are financially powered by tech stocks, stock options, and RSUs. When the stock market tanks, some buyers will rush to put their cash into real estate (the quip we often hear is that “real estate does not go to zero” and “at least you can live in it”.  At the same time, if the most amply capable buyers don’t want to sell their holdings at a 10% or more discount, that will impact how much they are willing to pay.

For some, the rising interest rates combined with the lower stock values have been a double whammy on affordability in a market still seeing historically high prices.

We are seeing slight signs of cooling in the market with fewer offers and some data points just a hint calmer than a month ago. Prices are not climbing like they were earlier this year, but they’re not falling either and interest rates are rising.

Nationwide, inventory is rising pretty noticeably, and we’re starting to see some growth around Silicon Valley, too. So are we getting back to normal inventory? Let’s have a look at what has historic inventory has looked like in San Jose. (If the chart is too small, click to see in full size.)

San Jose Historic Active Inventory of Listings 6-8-2022

At the start of the chart, 2010, the market was still reeling from the 2008 recession, but by 2017 we were seeing a strong sellers market with record low inventory. While listings are certainly up from 2021’s rock-bottom lows, it’s still extremely limited and nowhere near the inventory of more balanced years like 2013 and 2014.

So while inventory has been growing, there is still a shortage. If it continues to grow, prices should level out or drop. But will it be on par with interest rates rising? No one knows.

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

Trends At a Glance May 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,742,500 (-0.4%) $1,750,000 $1,470,000 (+18.5%)
Average Price $1,864,960 (-3.2%) $1,926,180 $1,585,920 (+17.6%)
No. of Sales 450 (-9.8%) 499 551 (-18.3%)
Pending 656 (-2.4%) 672 652 (+0.6%)
Active 441 (+19.5%) 369 295 (+49.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 113.0% (-3.1%) 116.6% 111.2% (+1.6%)
Days on Market 11 (+18.5%) 9 11 (-1.0%)
Days of Inventory 29 (+37.1%) 21 16 (+83.0%)

 

Year over year and related charts from MLS Listings

I pulled these directly from the MLS myself today (6/8/2022). The limited data from this month is included in red, but as it is an incomplete picture with data based only on home sales that closed between June 1th – June 8th it should be taken with a grain of salt. As with the earlier chart, click to view the full size.

The San Jose Real estate market’s sale price to list price ratio – notice the huge jump from last year, and then notice the ongoing streak of record breaking highs!

San Jose Historic Sales to List Price Ratio 6-8-2022

San Jose sale price to list price ratio – click to view larger

Notice that MOST YEARS, but not always, the sale price to list price ratio tends to peak around April with a rise between March and April and a dip from April to May. It fell a little in 2020, but that did not turn into the correction we all anticipated at the start of COVID. Look into late 2020 and you’ll see that all we were actually experiencing was a slight breather – very slight.

Now looking at the most recent numbers, winter 2022 started off raging hot and spring hit it’s peak for overbids in March and began to decline in April. While the sales to list price ratio is slipping, it’s still higher than any past year.

Please keep reading below.

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Introducing a Beautiful Willow Glen Neighborhood, “The Willows”

The Willows - home on Brevins Loop in Willow Glen - The Willows near Rubino CircleWillow Glen is one of the most charming areas of San Jose, consisting of many older homes which feature lovely, classic architecture. Most Silicon Valley home buyers treasure the Willow Glen charm and ambiance, but many are seeking newer homes. A fabulous option is “The Willows“.

KB Homes built “The Willows” in 1999 to 2000. It is tucked away at the southernmost tip of Willow Glen, off of Foxworthy Avenue & close to Almaden Expressway, but only about 2.5 to 3 miles from all the action on Lincoln Avenue.

The tree-lined streets are built in something of a loop shape with Rubino Circle being the main access or loop road. Situated on the inner part of the loop are homes with smaller lots that are a little more affordable. The outer part of the circle is built with slightly larger homes on larger lots (but none of the lots are “big”). Sidewalks with soft curbs at the corners accompany the streets and make for a pedestrian-friendly, bike, wheelchair or stroller friendly area. Visit in the early evenings and you will see children and adults walking, strolling, taking dogs for a walk etc. – always a good sign! Because the neighborhood is a bit like an oversized cul-de-sac (no through traffic), it is very quiet in terms of traffic. The area has large street lights, too, making for a safe feeling community.

 

The Willows - Rubino Circle street view
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Doerr Park of Willow Glen

When locals think of Willow Glen, most will picture the charming historic homes and bustling downtown strip, but this attractive community extends beyond the historic blocks. The Willow Glen Neighborhood Association defines the Central and Historic Willow Glen area apart from the Greater Willow Glen Neighborhood and Planning Area, roughly 10.4 square miles with approximately 82,000 residents. One of the scenic communities of the greater Willow Glen area is Doerr Park.

Doerr Park

Doerr Park Neighborhood of Willow Glen MapDoerr Park, sometimes called Doerr-Steindorf or simply Doerr, is within the 95124 zip code of San Jose, not far from the Cambrian border. The boundaries of this community are Curtner Ave, Meridian Ave, Foxworthy Ave, and Leigh Ave (See it on this Google Map). It is marked by tidy homes and yards with neat green lawns and airy street trees. Towards the center of this highly walkable neighborhood sits a nearly 12 acre city park. Doerr Park is a sunny community park with expansive lawns, open tree groves, picnic benches with barbeque stations, two magnificent playgrounds for different age groups (one of them has 3-tiered climbing towers and long slides for the older children!), a basketball court, softball field, four tennis courts, and restrooms. The park is very popular!

This neighborhood is accessible, too! There’s shopping and an office complex at the corner of Foxworthy Ave and Meridian, with a Grocery Outlet, gas station, and bank. It’s very close to more shopping including restaurants, Target, Home Depot, and more. For commuters, it’s only a 6 minute drive to 85, 17, and Almaden Expy, and there are bus lines which run along Curtner and Leigh.

There are a few possible negatives to consider, however. Some areas are beside easements for high voltage power lines, though a large portion of the easement connecting to the park has recently been transformed into a community trail. Not all phone lines are under ground, which might be considered an eyesore by some.

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Hacienda Gardens neighborhood in San Jose

Hacienda Gardens smaller modelThe Hacienda Gardens subdivision in San Jose straddles the Willow Glen and Cambrian districts, and it enjoys the highly regarded Cambrian schools. Homes and lots tend to be a little on the small side, so prices are relatively affordable as Willow Glen or Cambrian neighborhoods go, especially for such a strong school district. As San Jose real estate goes, this is a good value area due to great schools, more modest prices and lots of great amenities in the immediate area.

What are homes like in the Hacienda Gardens neighborhood?

There are around 550 houses in this San Jose subdivision. They were built originally in 1953 and 1954, though some may be newer or rebuilt since then.  Ranch style homes, they were constructed with 3-4 bedrooms and 1 or 2 bathrooms and came with an attached one or two car garage.  The builder used slab foundations and wall heaters, but many home owners have since added forced air heat (and central air conditioning).

Square footage of these houses runs from 1060 SF to 1400 SF in 82% of the homes (I crunched the numbers using county real estate records via the Realist Report), but 78 are larger than this (18%) and one is a hair over 3,000 SF.

Most of the neighborhood has parcels of around 5500 square feet, as a ballpark. I ran the data on this too and found 486 of the 550 or so homes had lot sizes of 6000 SF or less (88% of the homes). But just like with the house sizes, there are a few that are bigger – 64 or 12% are larger than this, and the largest parcels are 1/4 acre or more.

There’s some new construction close to the shopping center too – it was built in very recent years. When I get more info on those homes, I will update this article.

Where is the Hacienda Gardens area?

Hacienda Gardens appx boundariesThis corner of San Jose is entirely in the 95124 zip code, but about one third is north of Foxworthy (and just south of beautiful Doerr Park), which our MLS refers to as the Willow Glen area, and the other two thirds is between Foxworthy and Hillsdale, just west of Meridian Avenue, in the Cambrian area.

Adjacent to this neighborhood is the Hacienda Gardens Shopping Center, which runs between Hillsdale, Meridian, and Foxworthy Avenues. In recent years that shopping center changed hands and has been given a gorgeous facelift, making it a place neighbors will appreciate having in close proximity. It is home to a good-sized Rite Aid store, the long-term tenant Hometown Buffett, and a number of other restaurants offering pizza, Chinese food, and BBQ as well as other shops, institutions, and stores, such as Wells Fargo. (more…)

Exquisitely Remodeled Willow Glen Home with Campbell Schools for Sale

Remodeled kitchen at 1548 Santa Inez Drive, San Jose (Willow Glen) CA 95125Located on a quiet, tree lined street in the St. Francis Woods neighborhood of Willow Glen, San Jose, a stunningly remodeled and spacious home at 1548 Santa Inez Drive is a dream home in a fabulous neighborhood.

Offered for sale at $875,000 – Approximately 2028 square feet on a comfortable 8250 SF lot (per county records), this lovely 3 bedroom, 2.5 remodeled bath home has truly spacious living areas, a kitchen that will knock your socks off and a backyard perfect for entertaining. Please enjoy the virtual tour, below, then get all the details next.

 

 

Highlights of this Willow Glen home for sale include:

  • 3 bedrooms with lovely crown molding & large, classic base
  • 2.5 elegantly remodeled bathrooms
  • High-end, remodeled kitchen featuring slab granite counter tops and complimentary tile back splash with granite accent pieces
    • Stainless steel sink and appliances
      • GE Profile set of ovens (2 plus warming drawer)
      • Miele 5 burner gas range
      • Bosch dishwasher
      • GE Profile microwave
    • Extra high ceiling with a canopy of recessed lights
    • Tasteful and unique two tone cabinets – wood on bottom, black on top pieces with under-cabinet lighting installed, pullouts and “lazy Susan” too
    • Loads of storage & counter space plus a pantry
    • Floor made of large tiles, theme carried from entry hall into half bath, laundry area and pantry too
  • Separate Living, Dining and Family Rooms  (more…)