How is the Campbell real estate market? Campbell is in a prolonged strong seller’s market, but this summer we’ve finally seen some cooling in this popular West Valley community. As of the latest data, however, the single family market remains in the seller’s favor, while buyers have the advantage in the condo and townhome market.
This article, updated monthly, offers data and analysis on the residential real estate market within this popular Silicon Valley community. Here are a few details from the latest update on Campbell’s single family housing market:
Inventory of single family homes inched up a hair from the month before, and with 26 active listings at the end of September it remains well above this time last year. The inventory for condos and townhomes also grew month-over-month, and also remains sky-high year-over-year.
Closed sales for single family homes, on the other hand, fell below last month and last year, though pending sales were up across both timeframes. In the condo and townhome market the trends were the same, but far more severe!
The average sales to list price ratio for single family homes soared to 102.8% of asking, a jump of +2.0% from the month before, but down -1.1% from this time last year. Condos and townhomes, on the other hand, plunged by -3.5% month-over-month, falling below asking price at a 99.7% average and falling far below this time last year.
The condo and townhome market is typically much softer than the single family home market, so take this swing with a grain of salt – with just 5 closed sales, one or two outliers can cause significant swings in the sales data like we’ve seen this month!
Average time on market for single family homes slowed to a 48 day average, more than twice as long as the month before, and more than 2 weeks slower than this time last year. Sales in the condo and townhome market also slowed, and the days of inventory nearly doubled from the month before stretching to a jaw-dropping 226 days for market absorption.
What has been happening in Campbell this year? So far we’ve seen continued activity and interest in Campbell, but with distinct seasonal trends. The market began to heat up in winter and peaked early, around February or March. By late spring we saw some up and down month-to-month, but by June the sales data signaled a clear start of summer cooling. There was some up and down between July and August, which we expected, and the most recent data suggests we may still be seeing some late summer / early autumn jumps in activity, before it cools off again as we approach the holidays.
The Campbell real estate market remains in the seller’s favor overall, but is occasionally dipping towards balanced. Some properties are still seeing hot competition while others may be going stale.
The Campbell, CA Real Estate Market
It’s hard to predict what’s coming next, especially with so many shockwaves eminating from D.C.. Silicon Valley real estate tends to be affected by what’s happening in the tech market and connected to the global economy since many buyers rely on stocks and mortgage loans to finance their purchase. On top of that, we’re emerging from an already wild few years – the 2020s have been a rollercoaster ride! That said, Silicon Valley remains a desirable place to live and own property, and while we’ve seen some cooling over the last year, it remains one of the hottest markets in the country.
If you’re selling a well prepared, beautifully staged, and aggressively priced house, you’ll likely see multiple offers on your home for sale. We’ve still been seeing the occasional bidding war, especially with the best homes in the most popular markets, though it’s nowhere near as crazy as the 2021 peak. We are also seeing a bit of that K-shaped economy in the housing market right now – the higher end market, especially in sought after communities, is seeing heated demand while buyers and sellers on the lower end or entry-level housing are seeing more softening. Inventory is up, but following years of below-average and record breaking low numbers of homes for sale there’s still far more demand than what is available, especially for a move-in ready home!
All that said, we don’t expect a balanced market any time soon. The Bay Area still has a severe housing shortage and a backlog of buyers clamoring to get into a home!
Here’s a quick view of the Campbell real estate market stats from Altos Research, using list prices (not sales price) which updates automatically about once per week:
And now – here are some quick stats, pulled from the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) through the RE Report.
Today we’re looking at the real estate market for houses in some of the “west valley” communities along the base of the Santa Cruz Mountains – areas where schools are good, crime is low, residents enjoy scenic views of the hills (or of the valley from the hills, depending on the location) and overall, a highly educated population not too far from Highway 85. This will be a real estate market comparison for Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, and Los Altos.
Of the four municipalities, three are really very similar to each other in several regards. Cupertino has the largest population – about 61,000 people – but Los Altos, Los Gatos and Saratoga are all similarly sized, somewhere between 31,000 residents. The latter three also enjoy a traditional “downtown” area which is popular with pedestrians, bicyclists and motorists alike. (Monte Sereno has under 4,000 residents, which is so small that the statistics are very easily thrown from month to month, so it is omitted in this quick study.) Of the four, Cupertino, then, is the least similar due to size and lack of a central downtown area for now. This may feel different once the Vallco Mall is redeveloped.
We’ll take a quick look at these areas now in terms of the real estate market trends and statistics for each area, considering just “class 1” (houses and duet homes). The charts used below are from Altos Research, to which I have a subscription, and they will be automatically updated each week.
Please note: the Los Gatos data is probably a little artificially low as it will include all 3 zip codes, meaning also the Los Gatos Mountains, which are quite a bit more affordable than the areas “in town”.
In addition, as of this writing we are in the shelter-in-place phase 1 of the pandemic. This post is updated approximately every quarter or half-year, so we’re just starting to see the results of these changes to the market, but it will take a while to see the full picture. For now you can read more about the Coronavirus impact on real estate sales in my post on the topic.
Also, during the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory.
A year or so ago, I attended a 2 day negotiation class in Los Gatos. It was quite good! At one point, we discussed negotiating offers in a buyer’s market and how challenging it can be to get showings and offers at all. The topic of a “reverse offer” came up next.
A reverse offer is when a home seller initiates negotiations with a buyer by drafting a purchase agreement. Yes, this is backwards! The seller may not know the buyer’s ability to pay, what type of loan it could be, or even the prospective buyer’s name! The idea is that if buyers are on the fence, this may get the ball rolling. Only seldom does it result in an immediate agreement. More often, it’s either rejected outright or countered. Or perhaps the buyer and the buyer’s agent will draft a whole new contract. But it may be a useful strategy if a property is not selling and there seems to be interest from buyers who aren’t going to the next step of putting an offer in writing.
The real estate contracts in use in Santa Clara County (PRDS and CAR forms) both include a space for stating how many days are requested for the property condition contingency, which includes inspections as well as other investigations. How much time does it usually take? The CAR contract has a boilerplate number of days offered, 17, as well as a blank. The PRDS doesn’t make any such suggestion.
In Silicon Valley, unlike most of the rest of California, most home sellers provide pre-sale inspections for viewing by potential buyers. Often it’s at least a termite or pest report plus a home inspection. In many cases the disclosure package includes not just these two inspections, but others as well, possibly roof, chimney, or other components.
When there are no pre-sale inspections available for home buyers to read prior to writing the offer, the number of days requested for inspections tends to be longer. In this case, prospective buyers don’t really know the condition of what they’re purchasing so they will need a couple of weeks or more, in most cases, to be satisfied that they understand the condition of the property. Sellers are far less likely to see non-contingent offers or contracts with short numbers of days for investigation if the buyers aren’t given full disclosure upfront. (more…)
Many of the statistics quoted by news agencies and real estate information analysts refer to the “active” inventory as not just the homes which are truly available, but also those which are sale pending but with contingencies still in place (whether huge contingencies, such as bank approval on a short sale or the normal ones, such as property inspection and loan approval). This often results in a more bloated look at what’s available than what is really the case, and it gives buyers the sense that it’s easier to purchase than it truly is. Let’s look at some statistics to see what’s happening over the last year, when it shifted from being a buyer’s market to a severe seller’s market for houses in Santa Clara County.
Normally there are more homes available (for sale, without a “sale pending” status attached) than there are closed sales each month. But right now, the available properties are being gobbled up much faster than new ones are getting put onto the multiple listing. Let’s view the graph to see the relationship between these two figures for houses listed and sold in Santa Clara County in 2012.
At the beginning of 2012, please note that the new listings (the red line) outpaced the sold and closed properties (green line). The delta between them shrinks over the course of the year, until in the fall they are nearly equal until closed sales far outstrip new listings. That is a complete flip in the market, and it represents a shift in power from the buyer to the seller, too. For those who prefer just the numbers, here they are: (more…)
Some of my buyer clients had been looking casually for the last 2-3 years and now are in a bit of a panic. Not just any panic, but an exhausted, sick-of-looking panic, accentuated by the fact that prices are now rising pretty noticeably and their buying power is diminishing.
Why is it than when it’s a buyer’s market, and prices are soft and inventory plentiful, buyers are so picky – and when inventory is scarce, and buying conditions terrible and there are gobs of multiple offers, most of them clamor to purchase something, almost at any cost or in any condition?
As real estate professionals, we see this happen as the cycles change. But it’s very hard, in a buyer’s market, to tell a Silicon Valley home buyer: “hey, you’re lucky, buy now, while it’s easy!” because it always looks so self-serving (since we are only paid if the buyer buys and closes on the transaction) and a buyer’s natural response to this is “hey, don’t push, I’m in no hurry!” So we tend to step back and let the buyers go at their own pace. When the market turns, we tell our clients that it is a different game now, but often these home buyers don’t believe us for several months. Eventually, though, it sinks in and gets so bad that they are nearly despondent and wondering how this could have happened.
Tonight I got an email from avery discouraged San Jose area home buyer. She told me that they saw an open house of a place that seemed like a good fit, but that it was so packed with people that it felt like a “black Friday sale”. She told me that when they left that house, she was in tears. I knew what she meant. I have seen that frenzy, too, due to far more demand than supply. In fact, I showed a Sunnyvale townhouse during an open house on Saturday and it was exactly like that. I bet the agent gets 20 or 30 offers. (more…)
What happened to the strong buyer’s market, where bargain hunters could scoop up great deals at ridiculously low prices?
Many buyers have waited to “find the bottom of the market”. Now’s the time to get off the fence; the market’s turning and is headed into seller’s market territory (at least in some areas and price points).
One of the best ways to understand the real estate market conditions is to track the absorption rate or months of inventory. Approximately 6 months of inventory is a balanced market. Five or less is a seller’s market and seven or more months is a buyer’s market.
Here’s a view of what’s happening among single family homes in Santa Clara County (about 60% of the county is represented by the City of San Jose):
Inventory is down, sales volume is up, the median sales price is up (it had been holding steady at appx $450,000 for the last three months – this is the first uptick we’ve seen this year). The days on market are holding steady at close to 100 and the percent of list price is hovering at around 97%, where it’s been throughout 2009. No real signs of slippage here, but there are signs that inventory is being absorbed.
Once inventory starts declining, there will be pressure on prices to go up. (It is supply and demand driven, of course.)
On the flip side, the foreclosure moratorium will be ending shortly and there may be an increase of inventory. If that happens, it will stem the tide and it will revert into buyer territory. Until and unless that happens, though, it looks like Silicon Valley real estate is generally turning back to the seller’s favor after three long, difficult years of buyer gains.
Helping nice folks to buy and sell homes in Silicon Valley
Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Christie's International Real Estate Sereno, Los Gatos, CA 95030 408 204-7673 Mary@PopeHandy.com License# 01153805
Clair Handy, Realtor
GREEN
Christie's International Real Estate Sereno 214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd Los Gatos, CA 95030 ClairHandy@sereno.com License# 02153633
Mary & Clair sell homes throughout Silicon Valley: Santa Clara County, San Mateo County, and Santa Cruz County. with a special focus on: San Jose, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Campbell, Almaden Valley, Cambrian Park.
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Use this link to browse properties which are for sale, under contract (pending) or sold. Want to view only homes which are available now?
Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor ABR, AHWD, CIPS, CRS, SRES Christie's International Real Estate Sereno DRE License #01153805 408-204-7673 mary@popehandy.com “Helping nice folks to buy and sell homes in Silicon Valley since 1993”
Clair Handy, Realtor, GREEN Christie's International Real Estate Sereno DRE License #02153633 408-721-6160 clairhandy@sereno.com “Helping nice folks to buy and sell homes in Silicon Valley”
This is the Valley of Heart's Delight blog , covering Silicon Valley real estate - Santa Clara County, San Jose, Los Gatos, Cupertino, and nearby communities in the South Bay Area and lower Peninsula. Find info on neighborhoods, disclosure issues, buyer and seller tips, and housing market conditions in the west valley and most of the county.Please also see my other websites and real estate market statistics site, which are listed in the sidebar, above.
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Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES Sereno DRE License #01153805 408-204-7673 mary@popehandy.com
“Helping nice folks to buy and sell homes in Silicon Valley since 1993”
How is the Campbell real estate market? Campbell is in a prolonged strong seller’s market, but this summer we’ve finally seen some cooling in this popular West Valley community. As of the latest data, however, the single family market remains in the seller’s favor, while buyers have the advantage in the condo and townhome market.
