The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update

Cambrian Park Real Estate Market graphicThe Cambrian Park real estate market remains a strong seller’s market.

For those new to the area, Cambrian is most of the 95124 zip code (south of Foxworthy) and most of 95118 (west of Almaden Expressway). It borders Los Gatos, Campbell, Willow Glen, and Blossom Valley.

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market

QUICK STATS from the MLS today, April 10, 2024:

  • 33 single family homes (SFH) for sale in Cambrian (MLS area 14)
    • 19 of these are NOT syndicated right now
    • 12 are “members only, do not show”
    • 7 are “members only, show” – if buyers are only looking at the big portals, they will be unaware that 7 additional homes are for sale!
  • 0 contingent sale (most sales have no contingencies right now)
  • 40 SFH which are “sale pending” (no contingencies)
  • 52 houses sold in the last month
    • Average list price $1,673,149
    • Average sale price $1,908,608
    • Average sale price to list price ratio 116% (lowest was 99%, highest was 182% !!!)
    • Average home square footage 1606 SF
    • Average lot size 6,999 SF
    • Lowest sale price $1,330,000
    • Highest sale price $3,275,000

The chart below is from the RE Report.  The number of sales continues to rise – not that there are 40 pending sales and 26 closed ones! With just 15 active listings, it seems like nearly everything is selling well.

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a GlanceFeb 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,932,500 (+10.1%)$1,755,000$1,525,000 (+26.7%)
Average Price$1,996,490 (-1.8%)$2,032,290$1,584,780 (+26.0%)
No. of Sales26 (+52.9%)1719 (+36.8%)
Pending40 (+25.0%)3228 (+42.9%)
Active15 (+114.3%)724 (-37.5%)
Sale vs. List Price112.0% (+5.1%)106.6%103.3% (+8.4%)
Days on Market(-50.6%)1519 (-60.0%)
Days of Inventory16 (+30.8%)1234 (-52.6%)

 

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Santa Clara County Real Estate Market

The Santa Clara County real estate market shows no signs of cooling!

  • Home prices (median and average – both single family homes and condos / townhomes) are both up monthly and annually.
  • Inventory is up compared to the month before, but 28.3% lower than a year ago (per the RE Report).
  • Days on market and days or months of inventory continue falling. It’s a challenging time to be a home buyer.
  • Nearly all stats point to an increasingly hot market, despite rising interest rates.

 

March 2024 sales stats in Santa Clara County

 

Here’s the RE Report summary table. It’s an excellent summary of our Silicon Valley housing market.

 

Real estate market statistics

 

Multi year real estate data charts for Santa Clara County real estate market (single family homes)

PLEASE NOTE: to view any of the data tables / images below in a larger version, just click on them and you will be taken to our blog post, where the images are larger (except for the first one). Still too small? Click on them in the article and a larger still version will pop up. 

Months of Inventory

First, the months of inventory, which is a great overall way to gauge the market, is hotter and hotter.

 

Santa Clara County months of inventory for single family homes

Inventory

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Cambrian Park: Good Schools, Low Crime, Close to Los Gatos and Campbell

Cambrian Park, or more broadly, Cambrian, is a west San Jose neighborhood or district and is one of the high-value areas in Silicon Valley. The schools are good, the crime is low, and the commute is not too bad.

Cambrian Park Plaza signFor people relocating to Santa Clara County, this is a place to know about since quality education and affordability are often high priorities! Most Silicon Valley home buyers would say that Cambrian Park real estate offers a very good value.

What’s the compromise for the more reasonable prices of homes for sale? Well, Cambrian doesn’t have an interesting, upscale downtown area like Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga, or Willow Glen. (It may, when the Cambrian Park Plaza redevelopment takes place.)

But it does have tons of shopping & restaurants and even a Farmer’s Market. It also enjoys a top notch hospital (Good Samaritan) and plenty of parks as well as a fantastic rec center with a large park adjacent to it, the Camden Community Center, which has loads of programs (including an after school program for youth), classes, and a fabulous pool.

Altogether, there are about 75,000 to 80,000 residents in Cambrian, spread throughout part of two zip codes, part of 95124 and some of 95118.

If there is a “central Cambrian Park”, it would have to be near the original Cambrian Park Shopping Center, which was the first actual mall in San Jose! That area is sometimes known as Cambrian Village.  People sometimes use the three names interchangeably: Cambrian, Cambrian Park, Cambrian Village.

 

Where is Cambrian Park? Map of approximate Cambrian Boundaries:

 


View Cambrian Area of San Jose in a larger map

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Houge Park in the Cambrian area of San Jose

Houge Park on Cambrian area of San JoseHouge Park is a fantasticly appointed, well maintained twelve and a half acre park in the Cambrian area of San Jose (at Twilight Drive & White Oaks Avenue, SJ 95124).   There’s something for everyone, whether it’s benches to sit and enjoy the area, tables for playing chess and checkers, or opportunities to play tennis or chess. With a large, grassy spaces and a walking & jogging trail, folks who want to just get out and walk will have plenty of room for that.

When my (now grown) kids were small, my husband would sometimes take them there to meet up with a local astronomy club to view the stars. I’d take them to the playground to let off steam during the day.  It was really helpful that there is so much space – and restrooms!

 

Features of Houge Park

Some of the most appreciated aspects of Houge Park are these:

  • Restrooms
  • 3 Playground areas in all, including one for ages 2-5 & another ages 5-12
  • Picnic sites (no reservation)
  • BBQ
  • Horseshoe pit
  • Exercise course
  • Basketball court
  • ½ basketball court
  • Two tennis courts (unlighted)
  • Parking lot & plenty of street parking

If you’ve never been to Houge Park, it’s a worthwhile destination and a pleasant surprise in the midst of a residential neighborhood.  Cambrian is a popular area in which to live, and even nicer if you’re in close proximity to a beautiful park such as this  one.

With the Houge Park sign, shown above, you can see that there are play structures in the distance – with lots of lawn in between.

One of the nearby neighborhoods is the Villa Cambrian subdivision in the Parker area.

Continue reading to see more photos and get more info.

 

Houge Park swings and more

 

Below, please note the nicely paved path and par course.

 

Houge Park in San Jose

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Check the months of inventory to see if it’s a good time to sell your home!

Months of Inventory explained with an hourglassIs it a good time to sell a home in Silicon Valley? One of the best ways to get a pulse on the real estate market with an eye to selling or buying is with the months of inventory (MOI), also known as the absorption rate. This is the months of supply of housing for sale.

The months of inventory tells us how fast the current inventory of properties will be sold off if sales were to continue at the same rate with no new inventory were to come on the market.

The easiest analogy is with a bathtub full of water. If we added no more water to the tub, and the drain were opened, how much time would it take for the water to be depleted if it continued to empty at the same rate? That’s the question being answered with the absorption rate of inventory.

Or, simpler still, if you have an hourglass that you turn over, how long does it take for the sand to empty from the top (since you cannot add more sand to that end)?

How to calculate the months of inventory or MOI

The way to calculate the months of inventory is simple:  find the current available inventory of homes for sale (not under contract or sale pending), then find the number of homes with that exact criteria which have closed escrow in the last 30 days.  Divide the first by the second and you get the months of inventory. Or, I can just use the stats program on the MLS to generate that number, as I did today.

Earlier I pulled this data from MLSListings.com, our local MLS association (of which I am a member) and I ran the numbers for single family homes (houses and duet homes) in Cupertino, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Mountain View, Palo Alto, San Jose (all areas combined), Santa Clara, Saratoga, Sunnyvale. Separately, I also ran this same query for the City of San Jose by district.

The months of inventory by city or town in Santa Clara County

A balanced market for our area is 2-3 months of inventory (for most of the US it’s 4-6 months). Two months or less is a seller’s market, and one month or less is a very hot seller’s market.

Here’s a look at the months of inventory by city or town in SCC in April 2023 for single family homes.  As you can see, the vast majority of the county is a strong seller’s market, with the only exception being Los Altos Hills.

 

Santa Clara County months of inventory by city in Santa Clara County - single family homes for April 2023

 

Which are the hottest markets?  They’re the ones with the smallest months of inventory -Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, Cupertino, Milpitas and many more are well under the 2 month market. A few are a tad higher and in the “balanced market” area, and only one is in a deep buyer’s market.

The months of inventory by area within the City of San Jose

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Online home valuation programs and why they are usually inaccurate

The online home valuation websites are in high demand for spot checking a price. They are fast, easy, and free. 
Online home valuation graphic: same House Different ValuationsEveryone wants an easy answer, but often the easy answers aren’t all that accurate.

Online home valuation confusion

Sometimes our clients present us with “THE VALUE” of property per one of these free online home valuation websites sites and in some cases, they challenge us to disprove it (Zillow says it, or some other site, so it must be right, goes the thinking).  If they want to buy a house which is listed for more than the auto-comped value, it may cause some emotional anguish.  And if they want to buy one which is listed for less, they may feel a little giddy – unless multiple offers are looming.

The same is true with home sellers.  They agonize when Zillow, Trulia or some other big name site places a worth on their property which is less than what they feel it should be.

Often the best way to respond is to show many of the online valuations and not just the one the client is focused on (often that’s either Zillow or Redfin, but some are attached so some other site’s numbers.

What might surprise a lot of people is the huge discrepancy in values given.

Sample auto comp values online

A good exercise is picking a home that you know fairly well and then seeing what the online home valuation tools say for each one. I picked a home that I know and ran the address through several websites that provide automatic pricing info. Here are the results, from low to high:

Not included in online home valuation study:
Eppraisal $2,072,000 (too high)

Included in the online home valuation study:
Chase $1,721,800
Collateral Analytics (via Realtor.com)  $1,671,000
Redfin $1,644,906
CoreLogic (via Realtor.com) $1,631,300
NAR RPR $1,617,440 (subscription only for Realtors)
Zillow $1,580,300
Quantarium (via Realtor.com) $1,566,759
Bank of America $1,504,391

(Please note: the Trulia home value estimator is the same as Zillow’s Zestimate because Zillow owns Trulia.)

From top to bottom, the amount varies by $217,409! That’s a 14% gap between top and bottom. Had we included Eppraisal, it would have been even crazier.

How can the online home valuations disagree so much?

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Cambrian Park Condo & Townhouse Real Estate Market Update

Cambrian Park Real Estate Market graphicHow’s Cambrian Park condo & townhouse market? Normally we answer this question in brief with regular monthly updates over on the Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update. Here we will provide some more depth  with condominium and townhome data.

Before we dive in the the statistics for sold properties last month, let’s see what’s selling now in the Cambrian Park condo & townhouse  segment of the market.

Cambrian Park Condo & Townhouse market

Just now (as of November 14, 2022), I looked into the MLS to see the condo and townhome sales in Cambrian over the last month. Inventory is painfully low, and therefore, so are the sales.

  • There are 8 units listed for sale as “active” (not pending or under contract)
    • 6 are listed as condos (1 is “agent only” status, do not show)
    •  2 are listed as townhouses (both are “agent only” status)
  • 0 homes are under contract with one or more contingencies
  • 0 homes are pending with no contingencies
  • 7 condos / townhomes have sold and closed escrow in the last 30 days (4 condos, 3 townhomes)
    • They sold with an average of 14 days on market (condos 17 days, townhomes 9)
    • Average sale price to list price ratio was 101% (range 97% – 112%, condominiums averaged 99%, townhouses 104%)

Home prices appear to be down about 10% from the peak generally. It could be more or less in any given micro market.

Now let’s have a look at some of the numbers from our Real Estate Report:

Real Estate Report: Cambrian Park Condo & Townhouse Market – San Jose

Home prices are down from the peak here as they are throughout the valley. Please take the month over month and year over year sale price numbers with a big grain of salt. With so few transactions happening, there’s not enough data to be really accurate. What’s better is finding what else has sold for your home (or the one you’re interested in) recently. It should be within a mile, have the same school district, zip code, and similar location overall, and it should be within 10% of the home size of the comparable, or “comp”.

What we do know is that the days of inventory and the days on market are both longer than they were.  The market is jiggling up and down a little each month, and the general trend may be that we’ve hit the bottom of pricing for now.

 

Trends At a GlanceOct 2022Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$680,000 (-24.9%)$905,000$901,250 (-24.5%)
Average Price$814,271 (-9.9%)$903,625$945,883 (-13.9%)
No. of Sales(-12.5%)818 (-61.1%)
Pending(+60.0%)514 (-42.9%)
Active(+25.0%)4(-44.4%)
Sale vs. List Price101.1% (+2.6%)98.5%102.1% (-1.0%)
Days on Market17 (+30.6%)1316 (+8.3%)
Days of Inventory21 (+47.8%)1515 (+42.9%)

Altos Research Live Charts

The market profiles are live, updating automatically once every week, with active inventory from MLS listings.

Most of Cambrian Park falls under the 95124 zip code.  Here’s a quick look at the main real estate market data points for Cambrian 95124 this week:

 

What’s making it strong when prices have fallen? Mostly it’s a lack of inventory couples with a healthy buyer demand.

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What Does It Cost to Buy a 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home in Silicon Valley with Good Schools?

Often I have clients who are interested in purchasing a 4 bedroom, 2 bath home in a good school district in Silicon Valley, particularly in the South Bay and West Valley areas. But what does it cost to buy that “average home”? Tonight I did a study on the MLS of homes that have sold and closed escrow in the last 4 months with these characteristics:

  • single family home (house)
  • 4 bedrooms
  • 2 full bathrooms
  • 1800 to 2200 square feet of living space
  • 6000 to 10,000 sf lot

Disclaimers aside, here are the numbers for select West Valley Communities in the West/South Bay area with good schools.

Cost to Buy 4 Bed 2 Bath Home in Popular Silicon Valley Communities

The first number is the number of sales during that time (more sales = more reliable averages). This one is not in the older charts, but with inventory as low as it has been lately this makes a huge difference. The second number is the average sales price per square foot, the third number is the average sales price, and the last number is the average days on market:

2022-11-3 Average Cost to Buy West Valley Homes 120D 4b-2b West Valley

 

And now a look back to late winter, early spring of 2017…

 

 

What’s changed? A lot! The order has shifted some, showing where demand has increased or decreased. Most noticeably, the prices are mostly up significantly, which is most noticeable in the price per square foot. Cambrian has traveled a good deal up the ladder. Palo Alto and Los Altos were displaced by the sole Saratoga sale, and Blossom Valley of San Jose remains in it’s regular position at the bottom.

The home prices tend to run with school rankings. Previously this was by district API scores.  You can check the 2013, three year average, API scores in Santa Clara County for both the districts and the individual schools online here, however that system is no longer used. So how to people judge? Most buyers use sites like GreatSchools.org when looking for a home with good schools which ranks schools on a scale of 1-10 in a few categories.            (more…)

California lifestyle home for sale

Epitome of a California lifestyle home - 5068 Tifton Way, San Jose CA 95118If the California lifestyle home of living outdoors as well as indoors appeals to you, this Cambrian house and yard should not be missed! Clair and I just put a uniquely stunning Cambrian house on the market this evening and we’d like all of our readers to know about it before it’s gone!

  • Want to see all of the photos quickly? Check out the virtual tour at 5068TiftonWay.com!
  • Listed for sale at $1,450,000
  • MLS # ML81909106
  • San Jose Unified schools
  • The listing agents are Mary Pope-Handy #01153805 and Clair Handy #02153633 with Christie’s International Real Estate Sereno
  • The open houses will be Oct 1 & Oct 2, 2022, from 2 pm – 4 pm.

Work from home or entertain in style on a huge covered patio: California lifestyle at its best!

Beautiful pavers cover the patio and walkways in this lovely home, as well as the front porch area. So many choices for enjoying the outdoors!

The covered patio boasts nearly 700 square foot of additional outdoor living space. For most homes, that would be the size of two or more family rooms!

This amazing California lifestyle entertainment area features a high, open beam vaulted ceiling with 4 skylights and area lights, plus a fan light, making it useable at all hours and in just about every weather condition. Curtains on one side can provide extra privacy or weather protection if needed.

Summer kitchen - California lifestyle home in the Cambrian area of San Jose

The summer kitchen  provides granite counters and a wrap around breakfast bar that can seat 11! Additionally, there’s a gas barbecue (plumbed with a gas line, not a tank), an icemaker, and a Kegerator! There’s loads of counter space for meal prep or serving – room for everything!

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Kooser neighborhood

The Kooser neighborhood is conveniently located, features sought after schools, and offers a good value in San Jose’s Cambrian district. Many of the street are tree lined and most homes are well kept. This part of the valley has some nice perks, such as being close to the J & P Cosentino Family Farm as well as the Princeton Plaza Mall. Freeway access is a breeze!

I’ve sold a few houses in this area and my clients have all been very happy living there.

Joseph Lane - Tree lined street in Kooser area of Cambrian in San Jose CA 95118

The street pictured above is Joseph Lane. It’s one of the many roads in this part of San Jose which enjoys mature trees lining the sidewalks and streets.

Where is the Kooser neighborhood?

The Kooser neighborhood is located within the Cambrian area of San Jose, 95118.

The boundaries for the Kooser neighborhood are Camden Avenue to the west, Kooser Road to the south, Meridian Avenue to the east, and Highway 85 to the north.

From here it’s very easy to access Highway 85 via Camden Avenue (there’s a Park & Ride at that intersection, too) or to make use of Blossom Hill Road to move east-west.

Kooser neighborhood - Cambrian area of San Jose 95118

There’s a weekly farmer’s market at the Princeton Plaza Mall, some great shops and places to dine, too.  The new OSH, or now Outdoor Supply Hardware, is a wonderful store as well.

What are homes like in the Kooser neighborhood?

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