My Cambrian area of San Jose Real Estate Report was recently published with the updated numbers from the closed sales last month for this part of San Jose (95124 and 95118 with a little of 95008 too). Please click on the link above to see much more information there. Those charts are below.
Cambrian is MIXED at the moment, and the determining factor appears to be the school district. Overall, the Cambrian real estate market is a seller’s market, but one that has been softening over the last 6 months with prices coming down, the days on market going up, and conditions becoming more favorable for buyers with the passage of time.
Now, though, there seems to be an uptick in at least part of the Cambrian housing market. If we break it into different segments, we can see that it is not moving as one unified market, but rather as some micro markets moving somewhat independently. Next, I’ll share some charts I’ve pulled from the MLS this morning to point to that fact, using the Days On Market (DOM) and Sale Price to List Price Ratio.
1 – All of Cambrian (MLS area 14, which includes 95124, most of 95118, and a little of 95008) – days on market and sale price to list price ratio by month, including October so far. Notice that the decline has softened and the market is almost now flat.
2 – Cambrian with the Campbell Union High School District (95124 with some 95118) – same criteria as above
It’s interesting that the days on market are steeper so far this month in the CUHSD part of Cambrian. Could it be that homes are more expensive, and price is a factor? We’ll have to continue to check – see below.
3 – Cambrian with San Jose Unified School District
Here we see a clear indicator that the school district is a major driver in home values. (In fairness, it could also be a commute issue, as this area is farther from Sunnyvale / Mountain View, etc., or that could be a contributing factor.)
What about the impact on price and home size? Continue reading
The Del Oro neighborhood is a pretty pocket of the Cambrian district in San Jose directly on the border with Los Gatos at Blossom Hill Road. Most blocks enjoy large, mature street trees, and views of the coastal foothills are plentiful.
Where is the Del Oro neighborhood?
The Del Oro neighborhood in San Jose 95124 is bordered by Blossom Hill Road on the south, 1 house in from Leigh Avenue to the west, the utility easement behind Anne Way to the north, and the water or underground creek easement between Bobbywood Avenue and Mary Jo Way to the east. Streets included are Del Oro Drive, Del Oro Place, Del Oro Court, Tesoro Court, part of Anne Way, Anne Court, most of Copeland Lane, Copeland Place, and Copeland Court.
Students in this area attend Noddin Elementary, Union Middle, and Leigh High School – and those schools are a popular draw for this Silicon Valley community. The Del Oro neighborhood actually backs up to the Leigh campus. The other side of Blossom Hill Road lies the Belwood of Los Gatos neighborhood and the Belgatos area. As you can see from the map below, it is close to Belgatos Park, which includes some great trails as well as a playground, and also the Heinz Open Space Preserve and a good network of trails.
What are homes like in the Del Oro neighborhood?
This part of Cambrian consists of mostly single story ranch style homes, but there are some 2 story houses. Additionally, some Del Oro neighborhood homes are Spanish style, there are some French with a Mansard roof, etc. – so a bit of variety. Most of the streets are tree lined and there are sidewalks to make it even more inviting for pedestrians. And of course, the coastal hills are not far, and they make a beautiful back drop of the neighborhood.
- 183 single family homes
- 143 of them were built in 1968, 4 in 1967
- 30 were built between 1959 and 1964
- average square footage is 1792 SF (range is 1057 Sf to 2793 SF)
- average lot size is 6691 SF (largest lot is 11,097 SF, but most properties have 5900 to 8000 SF)
- average house has 3 to 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms
- 2 bedrooms = 1 house
- 3 bedrooms = 96 homes
- 4 bedrooms = 84 properties
- 5 bedrooms = 1 house
- 6 bedrooms = 1 house
- most homes have 2 car attached garages
- as of this writing, 15 are rental homes and the rest are owner occupied (92% owner occupied)
- 36 of them have pools (20% do have pools, 90% do not)
- 111 (61%) are 1 story houses, 48 have 2 stories, and 20 are tri-levels.
Most of the homes seem to be well cared for and updated, and most are basically ranch style. This first image displays a house with a taller than usual roofline, which is a beautiful improvement over the more typical low profile ranch roof.
And here’s another, this one a little Spanishy with the arched window and entry area (but not tile roof).
Cambrian Park, or more broadly, Cambrian, is a west San Jose neighborhood or district and is one of the more affordable, high-value areas in Silicon Valley. The schools are good, the crime is low, and the commute is not too bad. For people relocating to Santa Clara County, this is a place to know about since quality education and affordability are often high priorities! Most Silicon Valley home buyers would say that Cambrian Park real estate offers a very good value.
What’s the compromise for the more reasonable prices of homes for sale? Well, Cambrian doesn’t have an interesting, upscale downtown area like Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga, or Willow Glen.
But it does have tons of shopping & restaurants and even a Farmer’s Market. It also enjoys a top notch hospital (Good Samaritan) and plenty of parks as well as a fantastic rec center with a large park adjacent to it, the Camden Community Center, which has tons of programs (including an after school program for youth), classes, and a fabulous pool. (My family and I lived in Cambrian in the “Cambrian Gardens” neighborhood for 10 years and loved it – our kids made great use of the community center too.)
Altogether, there are about 75,000 to 80,000 residents in Cambrian, spread throughout the three zip codes of 95124, 95118 and a little tiny bit of 95008.
If there is a “central Cambrian Park”, it would have to be near the original Cambrian Park Shopping Center, which was the first actual mall in San Jose! That area is sometimes known as Cambrian Village. People sometimes use the three names interchangeably: Cambrian, Cambrian Park, Cambrian Village.:
Where is Cambrian Park? Map of approximate Cambrian Boundaries:
View Cambrian Area of San Jose in a larger map
The Santa Clara County real estate market is cooling off, which is very often the case in summers here. It varies from place to place within the region, and one pricing tier to the next, but I am definitely seeing and hearing about fewer offers, more lowball offers, contingencies creeping back into sales, etc. In red hot properties with great schools, you might get a half dozen offers…and three of them may be “bad” offers from home buyers who are pessimistic on the market. They do not get the sale, of course, but it is interesting to hear about an increase in those kinds of bids.
My RE REport just came out, and here are some images and data from that for Santa Clara County. First, the market barometer. Here, you can see that sellers had stronger power in March than they do now – by quite a lot! (Click on the image to go to the report and see a clearer version of it.)
Next, the average and median sale prices and the number of units (again, click on the image to go to the report). This graphic does not look as bad or as much of a change as the one before, though you can see that since May prices have gone down a little, and sales are now tipping downward and are fewer than sales for this time last year.
Next, the sale price to list price ratio is a bit more startling. Sales are still averaging about 1-05% of list price – so that is hard for sellers to complain about – however, it is unmistakable that the climate for home selling in Silicon Valley is undergoing a change and this is literally past its peak. Buyers and sellers alike need to wonder whether it will calm down or continue at the current rate of decline. Is it a buying opportunity, or the beginning of a correction?
The numbers themselves point to a turnaround in the market. I’ll jot the median sale price for the county here – it’s a large enough pool of sales to be pretty reliable as a gauge of the real estate market in the San Jose area:
July 2018 $1,350,000
June 2018 $1,402,000
May 2018 $1,416,000
April 2018 $1,420,000
March 2018 $1,450,000 – PEAK
February 2018 $1,380,000
January 2018 $1,163,000
Between March and July, the median sale price dropped $100,000, or 6.89%. As you can see, it had also jumped considerably between January and March, and even at today’s lower median sales price, it’s still higher than January. It will be interesting to see where it ends up in January of 2019.
A quick look at the numbers for this month’s Santa Clara County RE Report:
Trends at a Glance
|Trends At a Glance||Jul 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,350,000 (-3.7%)||$1,402,000||$1,175,000 (+14.9%)|
|Average Price||$1,624,690 (-5.1%)||$1,712,500||$1,409,380 (+15.3%)|
|No. of Sales||847 (-13.3%)||977||1,015 (-16.6%)|
|Pending||924 (-0.6%)||930||931 (-0.8%)|
|Active||1,151 (+8.0%)||1,066||816 (+41.1%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||105.6% (-2.0%)||107.8%||105.5% (+0.1%)|
|Days on Market||19 (+13.7%)||17||20 (-6.7%)|
|Days of Inventory||41 (+28.8%)||32||24 (+69.0%)|
It’s now August 10th and it’s too early to know for sure what the August numbers are doing, but normally August is a quiet month with sale prices a little off. So we’ll see. Continue reading
The months of inventory for any part of the real estate market can vary, depending on many factors, including age of home, house size, lot size, and school district, whether or not there’s a pool, and many other things. It can be very useful to understand this metric when selling a Silicon Valley home. I’ve done market numbers crunching tied to the specific characteristics of a property (say, small yard with pool or big yard with no pool) to find the impact of those characteristics on the probability that a home will sell – or how fast.
The Cambrian area of San Jose is a very “hot market” overall, but it can be confusing to know how hot it really is, just like the rest of Santa Clara County, because there are multiple school districts – and schools are probably the number one driver of home values in this highly educated valley.
An explanation of “months of inventory”
What does “months of inventory” mean? This figure references how long it would take to sell a property if homes continued to sell and close at the current pace with no new inventory coming on the market. A good analogy is to consider a bathtub which drains. If you add no new water to the tub, how long will it take to empty out?
The months of inventory is sometimes called the absorption rate. The question is simple: how long will it take for the current inventory of homes for sale to get absorbed by the home buyers purchasing them? It doesn’t have to be calculated by months. It could be in days, weeks, or years. But months is probably most common.
The Cambrian area of San Jose’s months of inventory as a whole, and in one price point
Cambrian was once an enormous zone of the Santa Clara Valley. Today we mostly think of it as within San Jose in the 95124 and 95118 zip codes. Some of it it adjacent to Campbell – a very tiny sliver is IN Campbell (we’re only dealing with the San Jose portion in our charts), and a tinier still area is in San Jose and is under the Campbell School Union District. Most of this area is in one of three elementary school districts: Cambrian, Union, or San Jose Unified.
Here’s the breakdown – first, for ALL of Cambrian (MLS area 14 for my Realtor readers) that’s within the City of San Jose and second, by elementary school district. The area for Campbell Elementary is so small that the numbers are usually not of use (no offense to the Campbell school residents). It can just jump around too much to be helpful and often gives us no usable data. Please have a look:
I highlighted the San Jose Unified Elementary School District in both charts as the current lowest MOI. You’ll see that past charts show that the fastest market shifts around. Aside from Campbell, which has numbers too small to register a MOI, these are the hottest tickets in the district.
Below are some past charts for comparison. This one is recent, from early January 2018.
In this chart, it’s the Union Elementary School District in both charts with the lowest MOI.
Here are the numbers from September 2017 for comparison:
The message I’d like to convey is this: you can read about information for your part of Silicon Valley, or your city or zip code, but it’s not until you drill things down to an area that closely matches your own home will you have a better sense of your own home’s “real estate marker.” It’s never “how is the market?” so much as “how’s the market for YOUR home – or the one you want to buy?”
If you were only tracking the whole of Cambrian, you might see .643 months of inventory. That’s a lightning fast seller’s market. But it’s not quite so fast if you’re selling a Cambrian home in the Union Elementary Schools area of the entry-level market. There, you’re seeing 3 whole months of inventory for homes around $1 million, while the same price point with San Jose Union Schools is almost one tenth of that, a low 0.375.
Years ago, I had a Willow Glen listing where the whole back yard was the pool. I did a study on the months of inventory and learned that pools in properties with that lot size took substantially more time to be absorbed. Likewise, I had a Los Gatos estate property on an acre of land, and the reverse was also true: the months of inventory showed that large lots on $2 million and up homes for sale did not sell nearly as well without a pool.
The math is simple: using the same criteria, divide the number of active listings by those of homes sold in the last 30 days. The criteria can be anything you like – a property’s size, location, number of bathrooms, price, age, etc. Often I include approximately the same home and lot size together with the school district. That usually provides much more accurate info on “how’s the market” as compared to just getting it by zip code alone.
If you are looking to buy or sell a home in Cambrian, or anywhere in San Jose or Santa Clara County, this kind of information is really important. It is not hard to do, but very few real estate agents will provide this information before you list or before you make the final determination on the list price of your home.
Looking for a good Silicon Valley Realtor who will get you that extra data? Please call or email me. I would love to chat to see about possibly working together.
One question I get a lot is this: what does it cost to buy a 4 bedroom, 2 bath house of about 2000 square feet?
So to answer this question, let’s see what houses like this are selling for (4 bed, 2 bath, appx 2000 SF or 185 square meters) and see how the cost looks in one Santa Clara Count y / Silicon Valley area versus another.
Today I compared several areas and cities using this criteria: single family homes of 1800 – 2200 SF, 3-5 bedrooms, 2-3 bathrooms, on lot sizes of 6000 SF to 10,000 SF. Normally I would chart this over the last 2 months, or 60 days, but because of the low inventory causing the sellers market I have expanded the search to the last 3 months, or 90 days, for a better range. As of this writing, Saratoga only had one sale over the last 90 days, so data for that segment may or may not be a good average.
Here’s how it shakes out in the “west valley areas” along the Highway 85 corridor, most of which are known to have good to great public schools. What areas are most affordable? One way of analyzing this is the “price per square foot” figure. Whenever I update the chart, I re-arrange the order of the cities from high to low based on the price per square foot, although there’s usually minimal movement.
To compare, here are the numbers from the this past January 26, 2017. There were fewer sales, so the search range was bumped up to 120 days instead of 90 days (and Los Altos was so low, it was individually searched at 180 days). You might notice price per square foot appears lower across the board in January compared to July. This is most likely because the market has heated up over spring and summer, which you can also see in the DOM.
Below are my results from the same search back in September 18, 2015. By comparison, you can tell that Santa Clara’s average Price has increased, pushing it above Almaden and Campbell.
How competitive is the market? Have a look at the DOM or “Days on Market” figure. All of these days on market are short, but they range from low to heart-skippingly fast.
In most cases, the priciest and most desirable places have either the best schools or shortest commute location or both (Palo Alto and Cupertino have both). Had I ranked these for school scores, you’d find that Cambrian is fairly high up and a good “bang for the buck” location – though not a super short commute for folks who work in Mountain View (though not so bad for people working in Cupertino). Almaden, too, offers a good value for the quality of the schools, homes, and neighborhoods, though the commute is longer. None of these is especially close to North San Jose (where a major employer is Cisco).
It should also be noted that in some of the smaller communities with less on the market these numbers may not be as stable as others with more data – for instance, Los Altos only had four homes sold, the second lowest, matching this criteria within the 90 days of collected data, and therefore may not be as accurate as others, such as the Blossom Valley area of San Jose with the most data at 38 homes sold. For these smaller communities with less data, it is beneficial to look at them more closely – Saratoga, for instance, has 3 different high school districts which have an impact the real estate prices. This chart is really just a snapshot to give a general sense of the relative affordability of these markets to one another. Continue reading
Tastefully updated & remodeled throughout! 1512 Santa Monica Ave boasts hardwood and tile floors only! This beautiful and sunny Cambrian home sits along the Willow Glen Border and enjoys an open floor plan, ideal for entertaining! And it is move-in ready!
1512 Santa Monica Avenue, in the Cambrian area of San Jose: Offered at $850,000
MLS # ML81670041
- 3 bedrooms
- 2 updated bathrooms
- 1144 SF of living space (per county records)
- 5882 SF lot (per county records)
- Central air conditioning
- Many dual pane windows
- Hardwood & tile floors throughout
- Raised panel interior doors
- Attached 2 car garage with extra wide driveway
- Washer, dryer, and refrigerator all stay
- Built 1954
1512 Santa Monica Ave – Virtual Tour Link: http://www.tourfactory.com/1642868
OPEN LIVING, ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHTING!
The living room offers a wood burning fireplace, built in bookshelves, hardwood flooring, recessed lights, and access to the front porch – a welcoming, comfy place to relax in a friendly neighborhood.
The kitchen overlooks the back yard and features younger cabinets, stainless steel appliances, slab granite countertops, a sun tunnel, tile floor, and a door to the garage.
The spacious dining area is open to both the kitchen and living room, and it also provides a tile floor & view of the inviting back yard.
Outside there’s plenty of room for everything with both a spacious deck – like an outside “family room” – and a flagstone patio with an exquisite pergola, which makes for a fabulous outside dining area. A lawn, fruit trees, and planting area complete this space. (Fruit trees include apple, peach, and orange.)
BEDROOMS & BATHROOMS
The bedroom wing enjoys hardwood floors, fan lights in each bedroom, and cedar floors in the closets with custom “Elfa” organizers and shelving.
The large master suite includes 2 closets, hardwood floors, and a fan light. Located at the rear of the home, it enjoys a wide view of the beautiful back yard.
The updated master bathroom provides a stall shower along with a toilet and vanity. The hall bath is also nicely updated with a pedestal sink, toilet, and shower over tub.
SCHOOLS for 1512 Santa Monica Avenue
Willow Glen Middle
Willow Glen High
Close to the Los Gatos border sits one of the more affordable Cambrian neighborhoods in San Jose and the west valley generally. It enjoys lovely views of the hills, great public schools with high API scores, a neighborhood private school to boot, and convenient access to freeways and stores. There’s no sign, marker or gateway to the area, so many of its residents are probably unaware that the official name to it is Cambrian Gardens.
This neighborhood provides an incredible “bang for the buck” for home buyers wanting excellent schools and not wanting to pay luxury home pricing. In many ways, it’s a “sleeper” – meaning that many people don’t know it’s there, but it’s a good deal!
The Oster neighborhood, centered around Oster Elementary School in San Jose’s Cambrian district, is situated on the north side of highway 85 and just west of Camden Avenue, part of the 95124 zip code. It’s one of the more affordable areas within the highly regarded Union School District, which is not to say that real estate prices are inexpensive there! They are just slightly softer than those around Carlton, Alta Vista, and Guadalupe, generally.
The Oster neighborhood is a nicely maintained pocket within Silicon Valley’s “west valley” (which follows Highway 85).
Most streets, and most properties, are well maintained in the Oster neighborhood. Some of this area used to be unincorporated (and you can tell that by the lack of sidewalks and curbs, and sometimes also gutters). Where houses have 4 digits (say 4921 xyz street), it’s usually incorporated into the City of San Jose. And where the street address has 5 numbers, such as 14534, it is or was originally unincorporated. The unincorporated area usually have larger lots, and some of them were originally on septic and may still have a septic tank buried in the back yard, even if now they are hooked up to the public sewer.
What are homes like in the Oster neighborhood?
Houses are, of course, many decades old. Some, in the older original Cambrian Park area on the west side of the school’s attendance area, may have been built as early as the 1940s, but most of the area was constructed in the 1950s and 1960s. Overall, the best land in Santa Clara County was built out years ago. It is therefore often true that the best land or location will come with an older structure.
Most houses are 1 or 2 stories, no basements, with attached 2 car garages. Most houses are the typical 3 – 4 bedroom, 2 – 3 bath ranch style tract home that is seen throughout most of Silicon Valley. Home size ordinarily runs between 1,000 SF and 2,000 SF, though they range from about 850 SF to well over 3,000 SF. Lot sizes are frequently between 6,000 SF and 8,000 SF, but the older section of Cambrian Park may boast 10,000 SF lots or greater.
How is the Oster part of Cambrian?
Silicon Valley home prices are sky high. The average price of homes selling in Santa Clara County is about 1.25 million. Cambrian offers good schools, a reasonable commute to places like Apple in Cupertino, and a nice location near Los Gatos and Campbell with lower real estate prices. For that reason, it’s become a magnet for smart home buyers over the last 20 years. If you have the budget for an average Santa Clara County home, how far would it go in Cambrian? Here’s the data, pulled this week from MLSListings, to answer that question.
Homes in 95118 tend to be younger and bigger than those in 95124, but the 95124 area is generally preferred as the schools are usually better (Union or Cambrian Elementary Districts and Campbell Union High School District vs San Jose Unified schools, though some of these are quite good, too) and 95124 is closer to Campbell and Los Gatos. However, if someone is commuting to downtown San Jose, 95118 would be more convenient. The most expensive homes tend to be in 95124 with CUHSD. One caveat to this data is the quantity of results – Cambrian in the SJUSD has far fewer sales than CUHSD, and sometimes can be so low the data is unreliable. The smallest inventory for one of these categories this week was 7 in the SJUSD 95124 area.
See what’s selling in Cambrian now on the map below:
$1,200,000 : 1241 Dentwood DR, SAN JOSE4 beds, 3 baths
$1,188,000 : 4315 Hendrix WAY, SAN JOSE4 beds, 2 baths
$1,100,000 : 1797 Branham LN, SAN JOSE3 beds, 2 baths
$1,090,000 : 1371 Holland CT, SAN JOSE3 beds, 2 baths
$1,100,000 : 1230 Weathersfield WAY, SAN JOSE3 beds, 2 baths
$1,365,956 : 1234 Redcliff DR, SAN JOSE3 beds, 2 baths
$1,249,000 : 364 Shamrock DR, CAMPBELL3 beds, 2 baths
$1,299,000 : 2221 Central Park DR, CAMPBELL4 beds, 2 baths
$1,299,000 : 1587 Princeton DR, SAN JOSE3 beds, 2 baths
$1,049,000 : 4056 Briarglen DR, SAN JOSE3 beds, 2 baths
$1,298,000 : 2132 Rosswood DR, SAN JOSE3 beds, 2 baths
$1,098,000 : 1302 Kipling CT, SAN JOSE3 beds, 2 baths
$1,088,888 : 1481 Hillsdale AVE, SAN JOSE3 beds, 2 baths
$1,488,888 : 15401 Blossom Hill RD, LOS GATOS4 beds, 3 baths
$1,199,888 : 15105 Esther DR, SAN JOSE2 beds, 1 bath
$1,280,000 : 3300 Kirk RD, SAN JOSE2 beds, 2 baths
$1,198,000 : 1264 Sierra Mar DR, SAN JOSE3 beds, 2 baths
$1,125,000 : 2264 Central Park DR, CAMPBELL4 beds, 2 baths
$1,149,800 : 4993 Agape CT, SAN JOSE3 beds, 3 baths
$1,199,888 : 1556 Foxworthy AVE, SAN JOSE3 beds, 2 baths
See all Real estate in the Cambrian community.
(all data current as of 10/18/2018)
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.