Cupertino Real Estate Market Trends and Statistics

Cupertino real estate market will be more expensive for view homes in nearly all cases -image taken from Ridge VineyardsHow’s the Cupertino real estate market? The Spring market is underway and the market is hot. The best homes are getting multiple offers and high overbids. Prices are up from last year, though down from last month. Some of this may be seasonality.

Our inventory has been extremely constricted, so it looks like these market conditions will persist for the near future, at the very least.

Cupertino Real Estate market – Closed Sales and Trends at a Glance

Here are the most recent real estate statistics, via our Cupertino Real Estate Report. The market is HOT! It has cooled just slightly from the month before, but not enough to bring any relief to weary home buyers.

(If you’re viewing the chart below on a mobile device, please swipe horizontally to see all columns.)

 

Trends At a GlanceMay 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$3,410,000 (-1.2%)$3,450,000$2,802,000 (+21.7%)
Average Price$3,278,860 (-7.1%)$3,529,810$2,747,450 (+19.3%)
No. of Sales22 (-33.3%)3322 (0.0%)
Pending24 (+60.0%)1517 (+41.2%)
Active17 (0.0%)1717 (0.0%)
Sale vs. List Price109.4% (-1.2%)110.8%104.0% (+5.2%)
Days on Market11 (+7.0%)1020 (-44.9%)
Days of Inventory23 (+55.2%)1523 (0.0%)

 

Prices are up annually, but off monthly. The market remains hot, though, as several data points underscore.

Next, the Cupertino real estate market via the Altos Research weekly charts (they use LIST prices, not sale prices):

 

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What has waiting cost you?

Row of houses with arrow indication price appreciation - What has waiting cost you? Indecision can be expensive If you’ve been on the fence about buying a home, have you considered what has waiting cost you? Indecision can be financially and emotionally crippling. 

Both home buyers and home sellers can experience delays in buying and selling, and also experience losses in what they could accomplish in a real estate transaction because of slowdowns in execution. Since our Silicon Valley real estate market has more periods of home prices rising than prices falling, the majority of damage from delays appear to fall on home buyers.

Sellers may be locked in with low rates and may now be upset that they did make their move up or move down purchase when mortgage rates were better. Buyers may feel like their opportunity window has passed them by.

  • If you’ve been thinking of buying a home for 5 years or more, that wait has cost you lower home prices. There is a chance that you may be priced out of the market.
  • For those who bought a home before rates bottomed out during the worst of the COVID pandemic (rock bottom was January 2021), there was a chance of refinancing and getting a loan at under 3%.  Today rates are closer to 7%. Buyers now are watching rates for a chance to refinance and get a better deal and lower house payment. Rates are hugely important when gauging housing affordability.
  • A fair chunk of buyers are hoping that prices will decline.  Demand far outstrips supply, though, so for now that appears to be wishful thinking.
  • There are some times when home prices go up faster than you can save. Right now appears to be one of those periods. If you decide to “wait and save”, the gap will increase between you and the home you want to buy, sadly.

Home buyers, what has waiting cost you?

Since 2012 our housing market has experienced prolonged periods of rising home prices with only a few corrections here and there. For would be owners, those few corrections were opportunity moments. Our last one was the second half of 2022. When home values are soft, few buyers jump in, though, waiting to get more for their money by holding off.

Trying to time the market seldom works, though. Blink and the market shifts back into the other direction! There’s almost never a perfect time and some objection to buying.

As am example, here are the average and median sale prices for Cambrian Park (MLS area 14), a section of San Jose that is often fairly reflective of the county’s appreciation overall.

The first year is 2013 since from 2006 – 2012 we had a bit of a wild ride with the Great Recession, but by January 2013 we were solidly into an appreciating market.

Cambrian home prices over time - what has waiting cost you?

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What does it cost to buy a home with Los Gatos schools?

What does it cost to buy a home in Los Gatos “with the schools” (as opposed to the Union School District or the Campbell School District areas)? In the last 90 days, 30 houses have sold in Los Gatos within the Los Gatos Union School District.  The averages will give you some idea of pricing, but remember that the range is very broad!  Disclaimers aside:

Average home size appx 2200 SF

Average lot size aboout 9500 SF

Average sales price appx $2,270,000

That’s not to say that you cannot purchase a house in town for quite a bit less!  Here’s what has sold for UNDER $2,000,000 (17 homes in all):

 

Chart of single family homes sold in the last 90 days in 95030 and 95032 zip codes under $2 million

Chart of single family homes sold in the last 90 days in 95030 and 95032 zip codes under $2 million

 

You can also view the info at the bottom of the Altos charts for 95030 and 95032 to get a profile of homes for sale by pricing quartile.

 

 

The Santa Teresa area within the City of San Jose

Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose

Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose

A scenic, more affordable part of San Jose with excellent freeway access is the Santa Teresa region, which is perhaps the southernmost part of the city. The east foothills and the Santa Teresa foothills create pleasant views and some areas are still rural. Price ranges have a wide gap between lowest and highest, with some luxury properties in some of the hilly eastern side. Most of the homes for sale, though, are less than the median or average for San Jose as a whole.

Where is the Santa Teresa area?

Per the MLS, the Santa Teresa district of San Jose spans a few zip codes (95119, 95138, 95139 and a little bit of 95123 north of 85 and the 95119 zip code). (The city of San Jose has a different map that includes far more of 95123.) An easier description might be the area close to where Highway 101 and Highway 85 intersect in South San Jose, or the area through which Santa Teresa Boulevard runs. It is north of the Coyote Valley, it  borders on Blossom Valley and the southern part of Evergreen, and is just over the hills from the Almaden Valley. It truly is South San Jose, and part of it even has Morgan Hill Schools, though most of the area is served by the Oak Grove School District.

The Santa Teresa foothills include gorgeous, large open space, the Santa Teresa County Park. It’s a wonderful place to walk or hike, and for suburban dwellers, easy access to rural or natural space, even within the city.

Some of the better known neighborhoods in Santa Teresa are these:

  • Avenida Espana (95119 zip, has Morgan Hill Schools – Bernal Road is the cutoff)
  • Chantilly (95119 zip, has Morgan Hill Schools)
  • Edenvale (kind of a sub-district)
  • Sunspring
  • Silver Leaf (near Silver Leaf Park, between Monterey Highway & Hwy 101 – 95138 zip code)
  • Basking Ridge (newer homes on a small hill just over 101 – one of the last subdivisions you see before hitting the open countryside, north of Metcalf Road – 95138 zip code)
  • Los Paseos (95119 zip, has Morgan Hill Schools)
  • California Maison
  • Burning Tree
  • Martinvale Vineyard
  • Rancho Santa Teresa
  • Oak Ridge
  • Makati
  • Anderson
  • Miner
  • Oak Grove
  • Deer Run
  • Great Oaks

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Silicon Valley home prices by high school district

Los Gatos High - Silicon Valley home prices by high school districtBelow, please find the charts indicating Silicon Valley home prices by high school district for transactions closed in December 2016 for condos and townhomes first, and later also for single family homes.  The vast majority of Silicon Valley is found within Santa Clara County and San Mateo County, with small portions also in Santa Cruz County and Alameda County.  Alameda County is not part of the local MLS, so unfortunately I don’t have that data to share.  The data presented here is courtesy of my brokerage, Sereno Group.

Silicon Valley home prices by high school district: a few words of caution

If you only glance at the median sale price, you may be confused about the most expensive Silicon Valley places in which to live for the condominium or townhouse buyer.  For instance, in Santa Clara County, the Los Gatos-Saratoga Joint Union High School District has a median sale price of $1,4 85,000.  At first view, this seems to be the most expensive part of the county.  But please note that the average square footage is 1910.  Now look at Palo Alto Unified, with a median sale price of $1,260,000 – but an average square footage of just 1313.    The price per square foot, though, correctly pegs the pain value of home buying in Silicon Valley as PA Unified comes in at a whopping $1,014 per square foot.  (More disclaimers: large homes sell for much less than smaller ones on a price per sf basis, so this is more helpful when the average square footage is similar.)

Also, please note that the high school district boundaries do not neatly follow those of city, town, zip code, or any other boundary. It’s sloppy at best.  Campbell Union High School District covers not only Campbell, but parts of San Jose, Los Gatos, Saratoga, and Monte Sereno.   The Los Gatos-Saratoga Joint Union High School District encompasses parts of Los Gatos, Saratoga, Monte Sereno, the Los Gatos Mountains and even a sliver of the Almaden Valley in San Jose.

Condos and townhomes – prices by high school district

 

San Mateo County and Santa Clara County home prices by high school distirct

San Mateo County and Santa Clara County home prices by high school distirct

 

Santa Cruz County has some Silicon Valley jobs and a strong number of residents who work in tech on the other side of “the hill”. Studying these home values, you can imagine why some locals are willing to commute across the Santa Cruz Mountains. It is much more affordable.

 

Santa Cruz County home prices by high school district

Santa Cruz County home prices by high school district

 

Next, the same data but for single family  homes.

 

Single family homes pricing by high school district in San Mateo County and Santa Clara County

Single family homes pricing by high school district in San Mateo County and Santa Clara County

 

 Santa Cruz County single family home prices by high school district

Santa Cruz County single family home prices by high school district

 

Interested in buying or selling anywhere in these counties?  Please call or email me today!

 

Related reading:
Cambrian Months of Inventory (by elementary school district)
Saratoga, CA real estate market update (with info by price point and high school district)
Los Gatos real estate market trends by price point and high school district (on the Live in Los Gatos blog)
Learn more about what homes cost in Silicon Valley on the Move2SiliconValley blog

 

 

 

The impact on the growing medical industry in the west valley on home prices

Silicon Valley housing is among the most expensive not just in the U.S., but in the world.  Areas with better schools are more costly still.  So what happens when we see a big increase in a highly paid industry concentrate its efforts in a small corridor?

What is happening with hospitals along the Los Gatos border?

First, let’s have a look at what we see taking place with hospitals and related facilities along the northern end of Los Gatos and into San Jose and Campbell.

Good Samaritan Hospital (in San Jose 95124 along the Los Gatos border) and El Camino Hospital of Los Gatos (“Los Gatos Community Hospital” before 2008) are just about one and a half miles apart as the bird flies, and there’s been a tremendous influx of new medical facilities between them – especially near Good Sam.  Perhaps the most notable is the Stanford Hospital Cancer Center, which can be seen from Highway 85.  A drive through Cambrian, Campbell, or Los Gatos in this west valley area and you’ll also find signs of the Palo Alto Medical Foundation, Kaiser Hospital medical offices and other more remote entities with a local presence.  This is smart business on their part and can eliminate fighting commute traffic for patients.

But what is it doing, and more to the point, what will it do to our already sky-high housing prices?

This morning I mapped out the local hospitals and a few of the medical centers and offices (link goes to maps on google for this search).  Here’s roughly what the simplified concentration looks like today:

 

Los Gatos, Campbell, and Cambrian border medical concentrations

 

These are just my casual observations and of course there are many other medical office areas not shown – but they are the areas which appear to me to be the most densely populated with cancer treatment centers, physical theraphy sites, surgical centers, rehab facilities, doctors’ practices, etc.

Because many of the adjoining areas are zoned as residential, it’s unlikely that neighborhoods full of homes would suddenly become a doctor’s office, pharmacy, or medical supply stores. (more…)

Cambrian homes near Leigh High School: what can you get for your money?

Near Leigh HighWhat does it cost to be within a mile of Leigh High School in San Jose’s Cambrian area?  Today I ran the numbers of sold houses over the last 60 days overall and also by price range of $200,000 increments.  Here’s how it looks – averages for regular sales (non distressed, no short sales or REOs) in San Jose 95124 within a 1 mile radius of Leigh HS.

For all Cambrian houses (prices ranged from $770,000 to $1,350,000):

  • The average sale price of the 26 regular sale houses sold in the last 60 days was $888,236; the average square footage was 1676, average lot size 7044 SF, average age 54 and average days on market 12.  If you are hoping to buy a Cambrian home close to Leigh High School, the odds are that it will cost you at least $800,000 and very likely much more.

If we pull it apart by price point, it’s a little surprising to find that the amount of house bought at the lowest prices was not that much different from those in the mid-range.  The difference is probably a combination of exact location (being next to Hwy 85, the high voltage lines or on a busier street will pull prices down while having a fully remodeled property will bring it up).  Here are the stats:

  • $799,999 and under: 4 sales, average SF 1423, average lot size 6304, average age 53 years, days on market 8
  • $800,000 to $999,999: 16 sales, average SF 1458, average lot size 6764, average age 52 years, days on market 13.    These are your most typical homes in the area in terms of pricing.
  • $1,000,000 to $1,199,999: 2 sales, average SF 2881, average lot size 8045, average age 59 years, days on market 8

What if we look at the same exact area, within one mile of Leigh High School, but at properties within the town of Los Gatos? (more…)