The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis
The San Jose real estate market remains in a seller’s market with steady activity and signs of cooling through summer and into autumn.
First, some quick data from my RE Report, and hand-pulled data from the MLS today. There is some under- or over-counting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, so numbers vary between the two, but the data is still useful for trend tracking.
- Available inventory grew month-to-month and year-to-year in both the single family home (SFH) market and the condo and townhome market. Based on the hand-pulled data the numbers are a little different, but the trend is the same: inventory is on the rise, and is currently equal to April’s inventory, though it remains below May’s spring peak.
- According to the RE Report closed sales were up month-over-month, but down year-over-year, while pending sales were down across both timeframes in the single family home market. For the condo and townhome market, closed and pending sales fell below last month and last year.
- The September 2026 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes grew to 102.0% of asking per the RE Report, a rise of +0.3% from the month before and a drop of -0.9% from this time last year. For the MLS stats we pulled today, it also shows a 102.0% monthly average, with an increase of +0.2% from the month prior and a drop of -0.7% from last year. Either way, the average single family home is selling consistently over list price in San Jose, though it’s nowhere near as high as earlier this year.
- Time on market barely budged month-over-month, moving quickly at a 26 day average (RE Report), and market absorption sped to 44 days of inventory.
First, a note about the differences in data and insights into reading the charts. If you’d like to skip ahead to see the monthly update, click here to jump ahead.
This September the RE Report shows a total of 487 active single family home listings in the San Jose real estate market by the end of the month, but the hand-pulled data showed 669 active listings at the end of the month! Why so different?
Market Data Gaps:
Well, the MLS data includes some listings that are not syndicated to sites like Redfin or Zillow, so the RE Report doesn’t include those. Note that a number of these are likely in a “coming soon” phase and may eventually be syndicated at a later date, but not all and some will likely sell off-market. There are also a small percentage of local homes listed on non-local MLS that are searchable within our MLS, but are not currently picked up by the RE Report. And rarely a home listing will be posted on multiple MLS services which, due to sharing between services, may end up counted twice by the MLS on these statistics and only once by Realist.
That being said, these differences will have minimal impact on our tracking of the overall market. San Jose is a large enough city that it’s usually a relatively small percentage of homes that get missed or double-counted. And the goal of this article is to offer general insight into the current state and direction of the market, not specific guidance for buyers and sellers. If you are a buyer or seller who is trying to track the market for your home purchase or sale, working with a knowledgable agent to pinpoint what’s happening in your specific micro-market is key. And if you are looking for an agent, we would love to hear from you!
Market Data: What Numbers Make a Difference
The 2020s have been a challenging decade for buyers so far. While we aren’t seeing the same market acceleration nor decline as we did in 2021-2022, in some ways the past couple of years have been even more challenging for buyers. For most buyers, their ability to purchase has been severely impacted by higher rates on home loans and the changing insurance market. But the biggest hurdle for most buyers has been the extreme and persistent lack of available homes!
Between March 2023 and March 2024 San Jose frequently had record breaking low inventory, often marking new lows with the fewest available listings by month in over a decade. We began seeing improvements in inventory in April 2024, and by March 2025 we started seeing higher inventory for the month than we’ve seen since before the pandemic… But that peaked in June before shrinking towards winter back to below-average volumes of availabile listings for the past decade (and far below “normal” levels).
Inventory levels grew again in 2025, remaining consistently above 2024 levels in San Jose for the whole year. While these were still well below pre-pandemic levels, and far from meeting demand, it did even out the market a bit making 2025 less of a rollercoaster than recent years.
We are in the early autumn market for 2026 with a burst of activity as buyers and sellers rush to make a purchase or sale before the holiday season… but we’re seeing a smaller volume of sales and greater inventory than this time last year. While it remains a seller’s market, the gap between demand and availability appears to have shrunk and the overall trends are notably cooler than they were a year ago.
Generally speaking as long as demand remains higher than inventory the market should heat up. While interest rates remain elevated (or rising) and due to persistent concerns over the economy (and the country) market demand has softened in some sectors of the market, but only enough to take the edge off. We still have far more demand than homes available, keeping the market consistently in the seller’s favor.
Why such low inventory?
While in a more typical market we might have a number of sellers looking to “move up” or downsize, most homeowners today couldn’t afford to move or don’t want to take on a higher-rate mortgage.
In recent years it seems like a higher percentage of the listings we are seeing comes from investors, people leaving the area, and sales by family after a death – cases where there is no pressure to repurchase or where selling is the only option. Recently there does appear to be an uptick in downsize-sellers, older owners with larger homes who may be able to buy something smaller all-cash near family members in more affordable markets. Another exception we’re starting to see is homeowners who bought with higher rates (since 2021-2022) who don’t have the low rate incentive to hold on to their current home. Still, that limits significantly what is available to buyers!
We are also seeing some more new housing development, a response to California’s statewide push to close the housing deficit over the last decade, though a majority of our housing market is still (and is likely to remain) resale of pre-existing homes rather than new.
Although inventory remains low with higher demand than availability, it’s nowhere near as tight as it has been in recent years.
What else can impact the San Jose real estate market? Many buyers are experiencing pressure from instability in the stock market, looming layoffs, and other factors limiting purchase power and lowering confidence. With the upheval in D.C. it’s hard to predict where the market is heading, and in our work we have seen buyers and sellers go both ways: either wanting to hold off and wait out the storm, or jump in before things get worse.
That said, not every home will face the same challenges – there are loads of micro markets within the San Jose real estate market that influence how well any given home does, and decent homes that are marketed appropriately continue to generate bidding wars with highly motivated buyers. All said, take this city-wide data with a grain of salt.
Historic Number of Active Listings in San Jose, CA
According to the MLS data, inventory grew from the last month and is currently sitting a little above the average for the number of active listings in September across the last decade. However, compared to pre-pandemic levels it’s below average for the month and at a time of the year when inventory is typically seasonally high. If you’re an active home buyer it’s a good time to look. For sellers it’s still a good oportunity to list: there may be more competition, but homes remain high in demand and the market is strongly in your favor.
The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.
San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)
| Trends At a Glance | Sep 2026 | Previous Month | Year-over-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $1,650,000 (+3.1%) | $1,600,000 | $1,650,000 (0.0%) |
| Average Price | $1,811,930 (+2.3%) | $1,771,580 | $1,793,420 (+1.0%) |
| No. of Sales | 324 (+12.5%) | 288 | 329 (-1.5%) |
| Pending | 252 (-9.7%) | 279 | 296 (-14.9%) |
| Active | 487 (+11.4%) | 437 | 379 (+28.5%) |
| Sale vs. List Price | 102.0% (+0.3%) | 101.7% | 103.0% (-0.9%) |
| Days on Market | 26 (+7.1%) | 25 | 26 (+1.4%) |
| Days of Inventory | 44 (-4.2%) | 46 | 33 (+30.5%) |
There has been some up and down in the data, but it’s clear the market is rising from a bit of a summer slump. Available inventory and closed sales both grew, but pending sales shrank, suggesting this late summer heating may be turning a corner soon. The sales to list price ratio grew by +0.3%, sales prices inched up a hair, and days on market barely budged from the month before. Homes continued to sell quickly and over asking on average. Demand is high and San Jose remains in a hot seller’s market with continued activity, though it’s experiencing a calmer summer season with a little market heating near the start of autumn.
Keep reading below for more data and market analysis.
