The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market remains in a red hot seller’s market, entering the spring market in full swing!

First, some quick data from my RE Report and hand-pulled from the MLS today. There appears to be a small amount of under- or over-counting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, so numbers vary slightly between the two, but the data is still useful for trend tracking.

  • The March 2024 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes rose to 110.1% of asking, that’s +2.0% from last month per the RE Report and +6.9% from this time 2023. For the MLS stats we pulled today, however, it shows 109.5% average, up from 108.0% (+1.5%) the month prior. Either way, the average home is selling consistently over list price in San Jose, and heating up fast towards spring.
  • Home values for single family properties are up from this time last year by approximately 14.5%, and month-over-month closed sales prices rose by around 6% – 9%!
  • The time on market sped up slightly month-over-month to a 14 day average (RE Report).

Market Data: What Numbers Make a Difference

While we aren’t seeing the same market acceleration as we did at the peak, in some ways this market has been even more challenging for buyers. For most buyers, their ability to purchase has been severely impacted by higher rates on home loans and the changing insurance market. But the biggest hurdle for most buyers is the extreme and persistent lack of available homes!

Since March 2023 San Jose has frequently had record breaking low inventory, often marking new lows with the fewest available listings by month in over a decade. And it doesn’t look like inventory will really pick up any time soon, either.

Why such low inventory?

While in a more typical market we might have a number of sellers looking to “move up” or downsize, most homeowners today couldn’t afford to move or don’t want to take on a higher-rate mortgage. Now it seems like a higher percentage of the listings we are seeing comes from investors, people leaving the area, and sales by family after a death – cases where there is no pressure to repurchase or where selling is the only option. One exception we’re starting to see is homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages who don’t have the same low rate incentive to hold on to their current home. Still, that limits significantly what is available to buyers!

Although inventory remains at record-breaking lows with higher demand than availability, sale prices and overbids are not necessarily breaking records like last year’s spring peak. Many buyers are experiencing significantly more pressure from higher interest rates, fluctuating stocks, looming layoffs, and other factors limiting purchase power and lowering confidence. That said, not every home will face the same challenges – there are loads of micro markets that influence how well any given home does, and decent homes that are marketed appropriately still regularly become bidding wars for driven buyers. All said, take this city-wide data with a grain of salt.

 

Inventory - San Jose CA listings of houses / Single Family Homes for sale

 

Inventory remains severely low – currently showing the lowest March inventory over more than a decade! If you’re an active home buyer, it is slim pickings!

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

 

Trends At a GlanceMar 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,715,000 (+6.3%)$1,613,500$1,499,500 (+14.4%)
Average Price$1,832,510 (+8.9%)$1,682,100$1,600,230 (+14.5%)
No. of Sales297 (+42.8%)208310 (-4.2%)
Pending296 (+13.8%)260252 (+17.5%)
Active164 (+14.7%)143257 (-36.2%)
Sale vs. List Price110.1% (+2.0%)107.9%103.1% (+6.9%)
Days on Market14 (-10.1%)1624 (-40.5%)
Days of Inventory17 (-13.9%)1925 (-33.4%)

 

Available inventory is significantly less than was at this time last year, while pending sales have risen above 2023 numbers and closed sales are just a tad behind. Demand is extremely high! The chart clearly shows a strong seller’s market launching into spring. Keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

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What can you buy in Cambrian for about $1.25 million?

Silicon Valley home prices are sky high, if lower than the peak of the market in Spring 2018. The median sale price of houses across all of Santa Clara County as of February is $1,182,000, and the average is about $1,449,000. Would you be able to buy a house in Cambrian for that sale price, or a little lower? If so, what would it look like? What can you buy in Cambrian for about $1.25 million today? Here we’ll consider the cost of Cambrian housing.

Cambrian offers good schools, a reasonable commute to places like Apple in Cupertino, and a nice location near Los Gatos and Campbell with lower real estate prices than those two areas. For that reason, it’s become a magnet for smart home buyers over the last 20 years. If you have the budget for a median priced Santa Clara County home, how far would it go in Cambrian?  Here’s the data, pulled this week from MLSListings, to answer that question.

What Can You Buy in Cambrian?

For the charts below: CUHSD refers to Campbell Union High School District, and SJUSD is San Jose Unified School District. Cambrian housing is most expensive in the Union SD, 2nd priciest is Cambrian, and most affordable is San Jose Unified.

 

Cambrian housing costs - What can you buy in Cambrian for $1.25 mil 02-2020

I need to add something very important here about the cost of  Cambrian housing, and that’s that the numbers above reflect CLOSED prices.

Pending sales right now are usually higher. Many homes with Union Schools especially, but in all areas, are experiencing multiple offers and overbids. In some cases, homes are selling for $250,000 or $300,000 over list price. 

Houses that had been modest 3 bed, 2 bath, 1250 SF homes that were selling for about $1,250,000 are now often selling for $1,350,000 or more, depending on walkability, lot size, and of course condition.

Despite what the closed numbers say, it is very difficult to find a house in Cambrian with Union or Cambrian schools that will actually sell for under $1.3 now. Cambrian housing prices are going through the roof at this point, particularly in areas with the best schools.

 

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