The Santa Clara County annual real estate market review

How did 2015 end as compared to 2014 for the Silicon Valley real estate market?  It was perhaps not as much appreciation as some may have perceived – and I may be alone, but I think that’s a good thing as realty trends and statistics go.  I’ll explain below.

The Annual Silicon Valley RE Report is in for Santa Clara County (links at the bottom for San Mateo County and Santa Cruz County).  Here you can view the year over year statistics and market trends for the San Jose area.

http://rereport.com/scc/print/Mary.PopeHandySCC.pdf

Santa Clara County home sales and prices –

 

Santa Clara County real estate market - sales, average price, median price of homes sold in 2015

 

As you can see, home sales (solid area)  remain fairly low.  There’s plenty of demand, just not much inventory for it, hence the pretty much steady rise in pricing overall in Santa Clara County.  This is one of the stronger areas in the nation.  (When prices are up, consuemers tend to think that Realtors are always making tons of money. But notice the number of sales!  Many agents are writing offers and not getting them accepted – so are having a tough time just as their buyers are having a tough time with multiple bids.)

Santa Clara County – prices up over 2014 by 6-8% appx

  • Median home prices increased by 7.9% year-over-year to $917,000 from $849,975.
  • The average home sales price rose by 6.4% year-over-year to $1,157,360 from $1,088,090.
  • Personal note: appreciation in this range is fairly sustainable, as compared to the appreciation in 2014, which was closer to 20%.  Double digit appreciation is usually a little worrisome since it often is not sustainable.  My sense is that this is healthier, and probably less susceptible to a “correction” than when prices rise more than 10% per year.  Hence, I think it’s GOOD NEWS that the average appreciation is in single digits.

Santa Clara County by city within the county

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Blossom Manor neighborhood of Los Gatos – real estate market trends and statistics

An extremely popular and consistently desired Los Gatos neighborhood is Blossom Manor, sometimes called The Manor or even Blossom Hill Manor, which is highly regarded for pleasant, curving streets, close proximity to shops and stores, and the prized Los Gatos Schools.  Today I spent quite a bit of time on my multiple listing service website, MLSListings.com, to pull the numbers on this lovely area and see what the trends and appreciation look like.  I was wondering how the numbers looked at the peak and the trough of the price rollback, whether or not the area has recovered or is close to peak pricing.  For the most part, I looked at all of the houses included in the map area, but also took a secondary study of homes just between 2000 and 3000 sf, since some home buyers seek larger square footage.

Please click on the chart below for the historical statistics, by year, for the Blossom Manor neighborhood – it will open into a new window and become a little more than 50% larger.   It reflects all homes sold, by year, in the Manor from 1998-2012 (averages, medians, as well as some minimum and maximum price info for each year combined).  For this area, the peak of the market, meaning highest sales prices, was in 2007 but both 2006 and 2008 were very close generally, so it was a fairly broad peak.  However, the same is not true for the bottom of the market for this same group.  Instead, there was one very clear low year – 2009.  After that, we see a recovery underway.

 

All Blossom Manor Los Gatos Homes 1998 - 2012

All Blossom Manor Homes sold by year from 1998 – 2012 (please click to enlarge)

 

Something interesting to note is the increasing size of the houses. The first four years (1998-2001), the average square footage of homes sold was 1778.  The most recent 4 years, it’s 2105, a 327 square foot difference, or 18% more than about 11-15 years ago.  We see a lot of remodeling and additions, so this is in keeping with what locals would expect – and it’s a trend that is likely to continue.  Why does this matter? Upside potential for expansion.

What about homes that are already larger, only those between 2000 and 3000 SF?  (There are only a few bigger than 3000 SF in this neighborhood.) (more…)