The real estate market in San Jose’s Blossom Valley area

Pan of Santa Teresa and Blossom Valley

Pan of Santa Teresa and Blossom Valley

The Blossom Valley real estate market is finally cooling off, though it continues to be a strong seller’s market! Homes in good shape which are priced appropriately regularly sell quickly and well above list price, despite new hurdles for buyers to overcome over the last two years. While trends can vary based on price point, schools, zip codes, etc., the entire area is still in high demand.

Here are some bullet points from the latest statistics:

  • Inventory and sales are all well above this time last year, though since the month before sales are slowing down and inventory is climbing
  • The average sale to list price ratio also shrank month-over-mont and remains above last year!
  • Days on market slowed with a quick 12 day average and nearly double the time for market absorption (days of inventory) at just 23 days

Often we see month-over-month softening into the end of the year with lower inventory and demand over the busy holiday season, followed by an increase in activity (and rising prices) as the market moves towards spring which tends to level off around summer. That said, the market remained strong through winter and began experiencing rapidly increasing activity earlier than usual. March and April are often the peak months for pricing, though it’s definitely still a red hot market in Blossom Valley!

About Blossom Valley

The Blossom Valley area of San Jose is on the south end of the city and covers the 95123 and 95136 zip codes. For our MLS, it’s “area 12.” A more affordable section of Silicon Valley, it has much to offer in addition to more reasonable housing prices. Many areas enjoy views of the Santa Teresa Foothills or the Communications Hill knolls or even the coastal foothills in the distance and Mt Umunhum. One corner of it sits alongside beautiful Almaden Lake, too. Another corner is located at the crossroads of Highways 85 and 87, making it an easy commute destination for those working in downtown San Jose. And there’s an abundance of shopping and dining opportunities.

Now for some market data.

Live Altos Reports

We’ll start with the Altos Reports, which gague the market based on active listings, not sales, and is updated about once per week.

95123 real estate market trends, automatically updated weekly:

Blossom Valley Real-Time Market Profile by Altos Research

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City of Santa Clara real estate market

Santa Clara real estate market - The Santa Clara Women's Club http://www.santaclarawomansclub.org/

The Santa Clara Women’s Club (old adobe house)
http://www.santaclarawomansclub.org/

The real estate market in the city of Santa Clara, like the rest of Silicon Valley, is one which continues to be impacted by low inventory and extremely high demand.

  • The May sale to list price ratio dropped -4.4% since last month, but remains at a jaw dropping 114.3% of asking, well above this time last year!
  • Available inventory rose month-over-month while closed and pending sales slipped. Year-over-year closed sales and active inventory are up while pending sales are relatively stable.
  • Time to sell slowed to an average of just 10 days on market, while the average days of inventory (or market absorption) slowed to 17 days.
  • Prices rose month-over-month, and are up about 28%-29% from last year.

Prices in Santa Clara rose astronomically through 2021 and in the first half of 2022. I grew up in that city and was amazed to see that the average and median sales price was hovering around $2 million during the hottest months of 2023! That dropped off around fall and winter, as anticipated, but by February 2024 the average sales price had already topped that $2 million marker and continues to rise, still well above that in May. While it may decline some later in the season, there is the sense that this may be the new norm.

The Real Estate Market for the City of Santa Clara

Below there are charts for the market activity over the last few months for single family homes in Santa Clara. Market activity has been high for years, and dispite some ups and downs over the last year, it remains high today. Low inventory across the valley means there is still a greater demand to fill than properties available. Further down in the article, we’ll check in on the condo market, too.

First, a market profile, automatically updated weekly, for the city of Santa Clara (these reports are available by zip code, too, and for condos/townhomes as well as single family dwellings). Check out the weekly Altos report HERE and click on subscribe to get weekly updates on all of Santa Clara or any particular zip code. (Scroll to the bottom and check out the profile of houses across 4 pricing quartiles – super interesting.)

 

Santa Clara Real-Time Market Profile

According to Altos, it’s a strong seller’s market with elevated market action rising through spring, finally leveling out around the start of summer.

Data from my Real Estate Report

Next, stats at a glance for the Santa Clara real estate market for single family homes.

Despite rising interest rates and limited options for buyers, the market for single family homes in the city of Santa Clara is going wild!! Homes on average are selling more than 14% over asking in just a week and a half – it’s a red hot seller’s market!

Have a look at the market by the numbers below, or visit my RE Report page for Santa Clara stats here.

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a GlanceMay 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$2,190,000 (+8.3%)$2,021,500$1,706,000 (+28.4%)
Average Price$2,218,020 (+6.5%)$2,082,080$1,718,320 (+29.1%)
No. of Sales46 (-8.0%)5039 (+17.9%)
Pending32 (-15.8%)3833 (-3.0%)
Active26 (+13.0%)2320 (+30.0%)
Sale vs. List Price114.3% (-4.4%)119.5%108.2% (+5.6%)
Days on Market10 (+24.0%)818 (-42.0%)
Days of Inventory17 (+27.1%)1315 (+10.2%)

 

(more…)

Morgan Hill real estate market

Morgan Hill land along the Uvas RiverHow is the Morgan Hill real estate market? Signals indicate it is an active seller’s market, though it remains milder than other parts of the county. Overall we’re past the most extreme peaks and dips, but a backlog of demand and low inventory continues to put pressure on the whole market. Below are some quick points from our RE Report (link below).

  • The average sale price for houses in May was $1,625,780 (+2.5% from the month before and +13.7% from a year ago)
  • The median sale price for single family homes was $1,520,500 (+2.7% from the month prior and +6.0% from this time last year)
  • The sales to list price ratio for homes dipped to 102.4% (-1.7% from the month before and +2.6% from last year). 
  • Days on market slowed significantly month-over-month, averaging just 26 days, while market absorption slowed to a 46 day average.

It’s still a seller’s market with plenty of competition for the best homes.

See the Santa Clara County real estate market report (for comparison) here.

The Morgan Hill Real Estate Market

The cities of Morgan Hill and Gilroy usually experience a lower demand than other parts of Santa Clara County which are either tech magnets, closer to big businesses, or a quicker commute around the Bay Area. So if most of the Silicon Valley has a sale price to list price ratio of anywhere from 105% to 110%, you might see closer to 97% to 103% here. Not exact numbers, just to say it’s generally lower here making the home buying conditions calmer for weary buyers, though still a sellers market.

Now let’s get into the data.

First up, the market profile from Altos Research – this is updated weekly, so check back often! You can also view the weekly newsletter through the link below, where you can also subscribe to receive this update every week in your inbox. Prefer a particular zip code instead? You can type in your desired zip in the “Search Anywhere” line and then request that particular weekly update by email.

Altos Research weekly report for all of Morgan Hill

Altos weekly report for 95037 only

Altos weekly report for 95038 only

Please note that Altos uses information on actively listed homes for sale, not closed sale data. If you compare the days on market of the active listings with the days on market of the sold properties, they will be different.

Morgan Hill Real-Time Market Profile

 

Trends at a Glance for Single Family Homes in Morgan Hill

Below is a chart with basic info, to see more click on this link to see the Real Estate Report for Morgan Hill.

Month-over-month May had more activity, showing in a growth of active inventory as well as closed and pending sales. Homes sold above asking price on average, and while homes took longer to sell month-over-month they’re about even with this time last year. The market is red hot and distinctly hotter than this time last year.

No doubt it’s a clear seller’s market, but compared to other parts of the county it’s noticeably easier for buyers to get their foot in the door here in south county.

 

Trends At a GlanceMay 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,520,500 (+2.7%)$1,480,000$1,433,940 (+6.0%)
Average Price$1,625,780 (+2.5%)$1,586,580$1,429,400 (+13.7%)
No. of Sales32 (+3.2%)3138 (-15.8%)
Pending40 (+17.6%)3433 (+21.2%)
Active49 (+58.1%)3141 (+19.5%)
Sale vs. List Price102.4% (-1.7%)104.1%99.9% (+2.6%)
Days on Market26 (+193.1%)927 (-3.9%)
Days of Inventory46 (+58.4%)2932 (+41.9%)

 

Single Family Home Live charts from Altos Research (more…)

Hot seller’s market – what is it?

Hot Seller's Market!What does it mean when real estate professionals, journalists and consumers refer to a “hot seller’s market“?  Simply put, it means there’s an imbalance in the market which is very much in the seller’s favor.  In terms of supply and demand, it translates to far more demand than available inventory for sale (supply). It’s a good time to sell, but a hard time to buy.

The Elements of a Hot Seller’s Market

We measure or note the market conditions using a variety of data points;

  • days to sell (and days on market for all homes, including unsold)
  • sale price to list price ratio
  • absorption rate (months of inventory, weeks or days of inventory)
  • number of listings available vs pendings and recently closed homes
  • rapid rise in home sale prices, especially if to unsustainable levels
  • number of offers received on a property at once (multiple offers)
  • buyers upping their price and improving their terms voluntarily, without getting a counter offer
  • buyers writing offers with few or no contingencies, fast close of escrow or other extremely strong terms
  • overall market trends of inventory lessening, prices rising, buyers getting more desperate – how all of these look when viewed as a whole

Basically, when buyers are competing against one another with multiple offers, when properties are selling quickly and over list price, and prices rise, the ball is in the seller’s court and you’ve got a hot seller’s market!

While some of the above can be easily tracked on our multiple listing service, some are not findable anywhere except in conversations with real estate agents who are actively working the market, writing and receiving contracts. What isn’t tracked includes the number of offers placed on a home for sale, whether buyers are engaging in “bidding war” tactics such as upping their price before even getting a counter offer, or offers with no contingencies.

Related reading:

A summary of tips for multiple-offer situations in Silicon Valley real estate contracts

Should you write an offer with no contingencies? What is the risk with a non-contingent offer?

Mistakes that buyers’ agents make which damage their clients’ chances of winning in multiple offers

 

 

 

The market is heating up in San Jose again

Often the Silicon Valley real estate market takes a bit of a nosedive in December and January, only to make a comeback after the SuperBowl. Just now I ran the stats for the city of San Jose, which is big enough, at about 1 million people, to provide a good sense of the market generally.

Below please find a simple chart reflecting houses sold with the days on market and sale price to list price ratio.  You can see, clearly, that the SP to LP ratio dips noticeably in December & January, and also that the days on market rise.

Even so, how bad was it?  The average DOM was 38 (break-neck speed in any other part of the country) and the average SP to LP ratio fell to “only” 102%.

 

2016-3-1 San Jose Days on Market and Sale Price to List Price Ratio

 

That was it – that was the “break” that buyers get in winter.  Things are reversing course, as often they do in February, March, and April, and multiple offers with big overbids are again the major story in San Jose and throughout the Silicon Valley region. Just this last week I heard of a home in this valley that got 45 offers.

Home buyers, want to purchase this year?  Your best bet is to be financially well equiped with 25% down or more if you are buying in any of the hotter areas.  This is a nearly impossible market for FHA home buyers or for those with less than 20% down.

Home owners, want to sell this year?  You can maximize your return by doing smart fixes and thorough inspections to make buyers feel confident about purchasing your property.  That confidence can change the game and bring 10 offers where there might have been 5, and with the larger numbers of bidders usually there come also much larger sale prices.

Call me or email me if you would like to discuss working together and getting your best deal in the current Santa Clara County realty market.

Related reading:

Why do sellers care if the offer has a loan or is all cash?

Home selling? Small fixes that make a big, positive difference.

Shopping for what you can afford: how not to depress yourself while house hunting in Silicon Valley

 

Homes for sale in San Jose

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(all data current as of 7/13/2024)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

 
 

 

 

 

The best home sale price usually comes with the fastest sale

Speed of home sale and sp to lp ratio in LG with CUHSDSilicon Valley home sellers often have trouble believing that their best price will happen if they sell in just 2-3 weeks (assuming open market, professional representation, multiple listing service exposure, etc.) rather than 2-3 months.  What I hear sometimes is “I’m in no hurry, I can wait for my price”.  Normally, a slower home sale means a lower price. (An exception can be when prices are rising really fast and the home goes off the market for awhile before returning, in which case it can be viewed as a new listing again.)

I thought it might be helpful to look at some numbers to see what really happens with the real estate market statistically, that is, what we can see from the data.  Yesterday I spent a little time looking at the MLS and crunching numbers.  Here’s what I see.

Los Gatos-Monte Sereno area (“area 16”) with Campbell Union High School District (Westmont, Leigh), sold in the last 30 days (so not just March, but also going into April):

  1. All: For all houses sold in the last 30 days, the average sale price to list price ratio was less than 1%off (almost 100%)  and the average price per SF was $626.53
  2. Fast: For homes which sold after just 21 or fewer days on the market and closed in the last 30 days, the average sale price to list price ratio was 102% and the average price per SF was $627.29
  3. Slower: For homes which sold after more than 21 days and closed in the last 30 days, homes sold at an average of 3% under list price and at an average price per sf of $625.43

So there’s a gap of about 5% between the sale price to list price ratio of the fast selling to slower selling homes.  (Yes, that is an amount similar to what is spent on commissions in many cases, so NOT a small figure!)  OK, so in that segment of the realty market, it does appear to make a difference.  What if we look at it from another angle?

All of Santa Clara County for March 2014

What if we look at a bigger area?  Will the trend be different?  Let’s have a look at Santa Clara County, again single family homes, sale price to list price ratio only, but this time for closings in the month of March.

  1. All sales in March 2014 105.6%
  2. Homes sold in 21 days or less 107.6%
  3. Homes sold in 21 days or more 99.6%

For the whole city of San Jose in March, the “gap” in the sale price to list price ratio between selling faster and slower is 6%.  OK then, what if we look at just part of San Jose, will it be any different? (more…)

The Santa Clara County Real Estate Market is Calming Down

At last, home buyers are beginning to see an easing up in the Santa Clara County real estate market. Although it remains a strong seller’s market, it’s inching back in the direction of more normalcy with fewer numbers of offers and a flattening of prices.  It’s way overdue.

This morning I logged onto MLSListings and ran some quick stats for the county as a whole for single family homes. We see the months of inventory rising, the gap between available and sold inventory widening, the sale price to list price ratio dropping and prices flat.

First  – Santa Clara County months of inventory last 12 months as of July 1 2013

 

Santa Clara County months of inventory last 12 months as of July 1 2013

 

How does this look compared to a longer period of our local real estate history?  I ran it back to January 2004:

 

Santa Clara County Months of Inventory Jan 2004 through June 2013 single family homes

 

Overall, 3.6 months of inventory looks pretty healthy (anything under 4 months is a seller’s market, though the National Association of Realtors says that 6 months is balanced). The question is whether this was a blip or a trend reversal.  We’ll have to watch and see. (more…)

Comparing the real estate markets in Almaden, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Sunnyvale and Los Altos

Days on market for several "west valley" communities within Silicon Valley

Days on market for several “west valley” communities within Silicon Valley

For people relocating to Silicon Valley, often there’s not just one city, town or area which seems like a good fit.  Sometimes it may come down to what your money can buy or how difficult it is to purchase in one area versus another.   This is frequently the case with the “West Valley” areas where schools are good and the neighborhoods are tidy.

There are two statistics which are especially helpful in understanding the Santa Clara County real estate market.  One is the “days on market” or DOM.  The shorter this is, the hotter the market – and the harder it is to purchase.   The second is the sale price to list price ratio, which hints at the existence of multiple offers, overbids, and buyers giving away all of their rights.

Today, then, we’ll have a look at these, starting with Almaden, the southernmost area, and working our way north along the coastal range.  The charts below are all for single family homes (houses and duet homes, not condos or townhomes).

Almaden Valley is a district within the city of San Jose.  Its boundaries roughly follow the 95120 zip code, though there are some parts of nearby zip codes which somewhat overlap into Almaden too. How’s the Almaden market?  Red hot!  Days on market is crazy low – a mere 16! And the average sale price is almost 104% of list price…and rising!

Trends At a GlanceMay 2013Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$0 (N/A)$0$0 (N/A)
Average Price$0 (N/A)$0$0 (N/A)
No. of Sales(N/A)0(N/A)
Pending(N/A)0(N/A)
Active(N/A)0(N/A)
Sale vs. List Price0.0% (N/A)0.0%0.0% (N/A)
Days on Market(N/A)0(N/A)
Days of Inventory(N/A)0(N/A)
Los Gatos is a bit north of Almaden and has many micro-markets within it based on proximity to downtown Los Gatos, the school districts, view of the hills or valley and many other factors. (This is “in town”, zip codes 95030 and 95032, not the Los Gatos Mountains 95033.)  The market is also red hot in Los Gatos! The days on market are significantly longer (36 as opposed to Almaden’s 16), but the sale price to list price ratio is a tad higher here. (more…)

Home prices continue to rise in Santa Clara County

Once in awhile I hear talk of the market cooling just slightly, in certain segments of the valley.  Certainly some buyers have had enough and have gone back to waiting.  “See you in six months”, said one of my clients after getting disgusted at the black Friday like crowds at one Sunnyvale open house.

The numbers do not seem to bear out any calming of the market, though.  Perhaps it’s all that hiring going on in Silicon Valley!

Just now I logged in to the MLS and ran some of the charts via the stats section. I found it interesting – “up, up and away” continues to be the pricing story here.  Have a look.  All stats are for single family residential (aka houses and duet homes or attached houses) in Santa Clara County only.  What is most striking to me is how HIGH these prices are for the median & average list and sale prices.  Staggering, really.

Median list price of houses & duets for sale in Santa Clara County. (Median means half listed for more and half for less than this amount.)

 

Median list price houses in Santa Clara County

Median list price houses in Santa Clara County

 

The average list price of single family homes in Santa Clara County.  (How can they be so high?) (more…)

Average Days on Market and Sale Price to List Price Ratio in Santa Clara County Communities

Today let’s look at the Santa Clara County real estate market, the days on market (DOM) and the sale price to list price ratio for houses and duet homes (single family homes). This will primarily be graphs that I created using MLSListings.com (our local MLS, to which I am a paying member).  We’ll consider the county as a whole and various cities or towns within it, plus areas of San Jose, as it has about a million residents.

First: Santa Clara County homes over the last year.  Please note the decreasing days on market, the increasing sale price to list price ratio in recent months.  This is exactly what an appreciating market looks like!

 

Santa Clara County average days on market and sale price to list price ratio

Santa Clara County average days on market and sale price to list price ratio

 

Next, let’s have a peek at how some of the hottest markets in Silicon Valley look, starting with Sunnyvale. It is odd to see any kind of a blip on the sale price to list price ratio.  Are buyers giving some push-back?  We keep hearing stories of homes selling 30% or more over list price with gobs of offers.  So the SP – LP ratio change is a surprise.

 

Sunnyvale average days on market and sale price to list price ratio Sunnyvale

Sunnyvale average days on market and sale price to list price ratio Sunnyvale

 

Palo Alto is always the hottest ticket in town. (more…)