Santa Clara County Real Estate Market

The Santa Clara County real estate market conditions were a little cooler in June with slightly longer days on market and slightly lower sales to list price ratio, but home prices rose annually  just the same, with the highest June prices ever.

  • Home prices eased back in June from May 2024 for Santa Clara County for both the average and median sale prices. Prices were WELL above the same month for 2023, though.
  • Inventory is rising, but buyers lament the lack of good inventory. A lot of properties on the market have location issues or need a lot of work (or both, in some cases).
  • Days on market are up a hair monthly, but lower than a year ago.
  • The sale to list price cooled a little from May 2024, but is hotter than June 2023.
  • Interest rates are remaining up and are  a major hurdle for home buyers.
  • Seasonality is at play: the market usually flattens or cools in June (graduations, weddings, travel, etc.), but we are hearing that the market generally is a little cooler than normal for this time of year. This could be from the interest rates, high temps, high home prices, or the upcoming election – there are lots of possible causes. For buyers, this is an opportunity!

Numbers vary slightly between the RE Report and hand-pulled data from the MLS, but the trends are still clearly visible – it’s a hot market heading towards summer.

 

June 2024 sales stats in Santa Clara County

Here’s the RE Report summary table or TRENDS AT A GLANCE. It’s an excellent summary of our Silicon Valley housing market.

 

Santa Clara County stats at a glance - SFH and condos and townhouses

Real estate market statistics

 

Multi year real estate data charts for Santa Clara County real estate market (single family homes)

PLEASE NOTE: to view any of the data tables / images below in a larger version, just click on them and you will be taken to our blog post, where the images are larger (except for the first one). Still too small? Click on them in the article and a larger still version will pop up. 

 

Inventory

The inventory is up quite a bit both month over month and year over year.

 

 

Santa Clara County inventory - Single family homes

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Santa Clara County Real Estate Market Prices

The Santa Clara County real estate market has been in a cooling trend, but it warmed slightly in October and appears to be warming again with the January sales so far. Prices are certainly down significantly from the peak pricing a few months back, but sellers will welcome the fact that sales prices are moving upward again. If this continues, we may be revisiting the normal seasonal patterns – which many economists have predicted would be the case.

 

2019-1-15 Santa Clara County city and town stats

 

The average sale price to list price ratio is still at 100.1% for the county, but is under 100% in many areas now. (And when I pulled that from the MLS just now for the first 15 days in January, I see that it has sunk to 99.6%. Days on market, though, shrank from 35 in December to 34 so far in January, interestingly.)

Home Prices in Santa Clara County:

The numbers themselves point to a general movement of  values sliding – at least until October, when it ticked up a little, and again here in the first half of January, when we also see upward pricing from sales that went under contract in December. I’ll jot the median sale price for the county here – it’s a large enough pool of sales to be pretty reliable as a gauge of the real estate market in the San Jose area. I pulled this data directly from the MLS:

January 1 – 15  2019  $1,200,000 prices up (so far) 5% from last month
December 2018 $1,145,625
November 2018 $1,250,000
October 2018 $1,290,000 prices up a hair
September 2018 $1,238,000
August 2018 $1,280,000
July 2018 $1,350,000
June 2018 $1,385,000
May 2018  $1,400,000
April 2018  $1,420,000
March 2018 $1,454,000 – PEAK
February 2018 $1,381,000
January 2018 $1,170,000

Between March and July, the median sale price dropped $100,000, or 6.89%. As you can see, it had also jumped considerably between January and March, and even at today’s lower median sales price, it’s still higher than January. It will be interesting to see where it ends up in January of 2019.

 

Median and Average sale prices in recent years

I think this is really interesting. Most years, both the median and average sale price are lowest in January (I have drawn in the pink or red lines at January for each year), but some years the lowest has been December for the average. This year, though, it looks like both the median and average will be lower in December 2018  than in January 2019. Have a look:

 

Median and Average Sale Prices for SFH in Santa Clara County

 

What does that mean? I’m not sure – most years both the median and average hit a low point in January. In a few years, the average hits a low in December while the median is still lower in January. Right now, it looks like both median and average will be lower in December than in January. Are we starting an early spring climb? Maybe so. We’ll have to watch and see.

 

 

A quick look at the numbers for this month’s Santa Clara County RE Report:

Trends at a Glance

 

Trends At a GlanceDec 2018Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,163,000 (-7.0%)$1,250,000$1,293,690 (-10.1%)
Average Price$1,437,380 (-7.1%)$1,547,350$1,556,330 (-7.6%)
No. of Sales548 (-23.8%)719704 (-22.2%)
Pending528 (-26.3%)716515 (+2.5%)
Active682 (-38.0%)1,100271 (+151.7%)
Sale vs. List Price100.1% (-0.3%)100.4%109.3% (-8.4%)
Days on Market34 (+13.0%)3021 (+62.0%)
Days of Inventory37 (-15.8%)4412 (+223.3%)

 

Please view the online, interactive RE Report here: http://popehandy.rereport.com
Or pull up the four page, printable PDF here:  http://rereport.com/scc/print/Mary.PopeHandySCC.pdf

 

Bottom line, I still think we need to see what happens in February before we’ll know if we are returning to seasonal patterns or not. Right now, I don’t see anything that makes me think we are going into a correction right now.

 

 

 

How is the Santa Clara County condo market?

Condominiums and townhouses in Santa Clara County have enjoyed rapid appreciation and almost perfectly steady improvement in the market in the last 18 months or so.  Today we’ll take a snapshot view of it with a few graphs.  First, let’s consider the average Days on Market (DOM) and the sale price to list price ratio for condos and townhouses in Santa Clara County.

 

Santa Clara County Condos and Townhomes Average DOM & Sale to List Price Ratio July 2 2013

Santa Clara County Condos and Townhomes Average DOM & Sale to List Price Ratio July 2 2013

 

The chart above shows some calming down in the Santa Clara County condo market.  First, it appears that the sale price to list price ratio stopped its wild ascent and has reversed itself some in June 2013.  But also, it seems that the days to sell leveled out (and stopped its decline).  Just to check on the apparent trend, I went to MLSListings and ran the numbers for the closed sales just yesterday and today (July closings).  The average sale price to list price was 106%, a tad lower than what we saw in June.

What about new inventory vs sold homes?  In the chart below, we see that the gap between them widened in June: more inventory, fewer sales (of course the June sales were contracts ratified in May, in most cases).  This also suggests a loosening in the condo market here. It’s not suddenly a buyer’s market, but perhaps we are seeing the beginning of a trend reversal?  Have a look at the chart:   (more…)

One offer and sold over asking price? Yes, it’s happening in Silicon Valley!

Overbid with just one offerTypically when houses or condos sell for more than the list price in Silicon Valley, it’s an indicator that there were multiple offers.

But not always.

Once in awhile, a property has been priced a little on the low side, specifically because the sellers and their agent wanted more than one bid.  If only one offer is presented, it could come in higher than the list price because more competition was expected.  Or if it were full price or under, the sellers could still counter offer it to where they are willing to sell it.

You may be thinking, perhaps indignantly, “Don’t they have to sell their property for the list price?  That’s the advertised price!”  The short answer is no, they don’t have to sell it for any price at all.

Of course, putting your property on the market with a deceptively low price – meaning one you don’t intend to take – is a strategy that can backfire and create ill-will.  It’s a risk, and not one I’d recommend.

Our MLS does not track how many contracts a house, condo or townhouse gets.  Sometimes the listing agents kindly put comments in the private agent remarks to give that info,and perhaps appreciation for everyone who tried, such as “20 offers received, thanks to all for your hard work!”  The usual way to find this information out is to call, text or email the listing agent.  Understandably, if they got dozens of bids, you’re unlikely to hear back unless yours was one of them.

So once again, there aren’t any “easy answers” here.  Most of the time, a higher sales price to list price ratio means multiple offers.  But it is possible that it was a sale that happened with just one very driven buyer.  Just this last week, one San Jose home sold 4% over list with merely one offer.   Home buyers in Santa Clara County often expect to pay more than list price when it’s multiples, but not so much if you’re the only bidder.  Time to adjust – you may be paying more than list price even if you’re the only one with a purchase agreement in hand.

Related reading on Silicon Valley real estate sales prices & multiple offers:

Sometimes the List Price Isn’t the Expected Sales Price, So Run Comps!

A summary of tips for multiple-offer situations in Silicon Valley real estate contracts