The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market remains in a red hot seller’s market through late-spring, though we appear to be just past the peak of the season.

First, some quick data from my RE Report and hand-pulled from the MLS today. There appears to be a small amount of under- or over-counting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, so numbers vary slightly between the two, but the data is still useful for trend tracking.

  • The May 2024 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes slipped to 110.0% of asking, that’s -1.0% from last month per the RE Report and +4.1% from this time 2023. For the MLS stats we pulled today, it shows 109.7% average, down from 111.0% (-1.3%) the month prior. Either way, the average home is selling consistently over list price in San Jose, though it appears to have passed the spring peak.
  • Home values for single family properties are up from this time last year by approximately 16%, and month-over-month closed sales prices rose by around 0% – 3% (RE Report, average and median prices).
  • The time on market slowed a hair month-over-month to a 13 day average (RE Report).
  • This May the RE Report shows a total of 322 active listings at the end of the month, but the hand-pulled data showed 445 active listings at the end of the month – why so different?! Well, the MLS data includes some listings that are not syndicated to sites like Redfin or Zillow, so the RE Report doesn’t include those. It is unusual that it would be so many listings that are not being syndicated, though! Note that some of these are likely in a “coming soon” phase and may eventually be syndicated at a later date, but not all.

Market Data: What Numbers Make a Difference

While we aren’t seeing the same market acceleration as we did at the peak, in some ways this market has been even more challenging for buyers. For most buyers, their ability to purchase has been severely impacted by higher rates on home loans and the changing insurance market. But the biggest hurdle for most buyers is the extreme and persistent lack of available homes!

Since March 2023 San Jose has frequently had record breaking low inventory, often marking new lows with the fewest available listings by month in over a decade. Though we’ve begun seeing hints of improvement in inventory by late spring 2024 it doesn’t look like we’re anywhere near catching up with “normal” levels – there’s still far too low inventory for the demand!

Why such low inventory?

While in a more typical market we might have a number of sellers looking to “move up” or downsize, most homeowners today couldn’t afford to move or don’t want to take on a higher-rate mortgage. Now it seems like a higher percentage of the listings we are seeing comes from investors, people leaving the area, and sales by family after a death – cases where there is no pressure to repurchase or where selling is the only option. One exception we’re starting to see is homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages who don’t have the same low rate incentive to hold on to their current home. Still, that limits significantly what is available to buyers!

Although inventory remains near record-breaking lows with higher demand than availability, sale prices and overbids are not necessarily breaking records like last year’s spring peak. Many buyers are experiencing significantly more pressure from higher interest rates, fluctuating stocks, looming layoffs, and other factors limiting purchase power and lowering confidence. That said, not every home will face the same challenges – there are loads of micro markets that influence how well any given home does, and decent homes that are marketed appropriately still regularly become bidding wars for driven buyers. All said, take this city-wide data with a grain of salt.

 

Inventory - San Jose CA listings of houses / Single Family Homes for sale

 

Inventory remains severely low – currently showing the 3rd lowest May inventory over the last decade. If you’re an active home buyer, it is slim pickings, though there are more options now than there were any month last year!

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

 

Trends At a GlanceMay 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,780,000 (+0.1%)$1,778,000$1,525,000 (+16.7%)
Average Price$1,905,890 (+2.9%)$1,852,680$1,640,370 (+16.2%)
No. of Sales421 (+20.6%)349340 (+23.8%)
Pending336 (-0.6%)338301 (+11.6%)
Active322 (+28.8%)250228 (+41.2%)
Sale vs. List Price110.0% (-1.0%)111.2%105.7% (+4.1%)
Days on Market13 (+18.7%)1120 (-36.2%)
Days of Inventory23 (+10.5%)2120 (+14.1%)

 

Available inventory has grown leaps and bounds from where it was this time last year, and both pending and closed sales have also risen well above 2023 numbers. Demand is extremely high! The chart clearly shows a strong seller’s market that’s extremely active, but things are cooling of ever so slightly. Keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

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Check the months of inventory to see if it’s a good time to sell your home!

Months of Inventory explained with an hourglassIs it a good time to sell a home in Silicon Valley? One of the best ways to get a pulse on the real estate market with an eye to selling or buying is with the months of inventory (MOI), also known as the absorption rate. This is the months of supply of housing for sale.

The months of inventory tells us how fast the current inventory of properties will be sold off if sales were to continue at the same rate with no new inventory were to come on the market.

The easiest analogy is with a bathtub full of water. If we added no more water to the tub, and the drain were opened, how much time would it take for the water to be depleted if it continued to empty at the same rate? That’s the question being answered with the absorption rate of inventory.

Or, simpler still, if you have an hourglass that you turn over, how long does it take for the sand to empty from the top (since you cannot add more sand to that end)?

How to calculate the months of inventory or MOI

The way to calculate the months of inventory is simple:  find the current available inventory of homes for sale (not under contract or sale pending), then find the number of homes with that exact criteria which have closed escrow in the last 30 days.  Divide the first by the second and you get the months of inventory. Or, I can just use the stats program on the MLS to generate that number, as I did today.

Earlier I pulled this data from MLSListings.com, our local MLS association (of which I am a member) and I ran the numbers for single family homes (houses and duet homes) in Cupertino, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Mountain View, Palo Alto, San Jose (all areas combined), Santa Clara, Saratoga, Sunnyvale. Separately, I also ran this same query for the City of San Jose by district.

The months of inventory by city or town in Santa Clara County

A balanced market for our area is 2-3 months of inventory (for most of the US it’s 4-6 months). Two months or less is a seller’s market, and one month or less is a very hot seller’s market.

Here’s a look at the months of inventory by city or town in SCC in April 2023 for single family homes.  As you can see, the vast majority of the county is a strong seller’s market, with the only exception being Los Altos Hills.

 

Santa Clara County months of inventory by city in Santa Clara County - single family homes for April 2023

 

Which are the hottest markets?  They’re the ones with the smallest months of inventory -Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, Cupertino, Milpitas and many more are well under the 2 month market. A few are a tad higher and in the “balanced market” area, and only one is in a deep buyer’s market.

The months of inventory by area within the City of San Jose

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