The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market remains in a red hot seller’s market through mid-spring!

First, some quick data from my RE Report and hand-pulled from the MLS today. There appears to be a small amount of under- or over-counting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, so numbers vary slightly between the two, but the data is still useful for trend tracking.

  • The April 2024 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes rose to 111.2% of asking, that’s +1.0% from last month per the RE Report and +5.5% from this time 2023. For the MLS stats we pulled today, it shows 111.1% average, up from 109.5% (+1.6%) the month prior. Either way, the average home is selling consistently over list price in San Jose, and heating up fast towards spring.
  • Home values for single family properties are up from this time last year by approximately 10% – 18%, and month-over-month closed sales prices rose by around 1% – 4% (RE Report, average and median prices).
  • The time on market sped up month-over-month to a 11 day average (RE Report).

Market Data: What Numbers Make a Difference

While we aren’t seeing the same market acceleration as we did at the peak, in some ways this market has been even more challenging for buyers. For most buyers, their ability to purchase has been severely impacted by higher rates on home loans and the changing insurance market. But the biggest hurdle for most buyers is the extreme and persistent lack of available homes!

Since March 2023 San Jose has frequently had record breaking low inventory, often marking new lows with the fewest available listings by month in over a decade. And it doesn’t look like inventory will really pick up any time soon, either.

Why such low inventory?

While in a more typical market we might have a number of sellers looking to “move up” or downsize, most homeowners today couldn’t afford to move or don’t want to take on a higher-rate mortgage. Now it seems like a higher percentage of the listings we are seeing comes from investors, people leaving the area, and sales by family after a death – cases where there is no pressure to repurchase or where selling is the only option. One exception we’re starting to see is homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages who don’t have the same low rate incentive to hold on to their current home. Still, that limits significantly what is available to buyers!

Although inventory remains at record-breaking lows with higher demand than availability, sale prices and overbids are not necessarily breaking records like last year’s spring peak. Many buyers are experiencing significantly more pressure from higher interest rates, fluctuating stocks, looming layoffs, and other factors limiting purchase power and lowering confidence. That said, not every home will face the same challenges – there are loads of micro markets that influence how well any given home does, and decent homes that are marketed appropriately still regularly become bidding wars for driven buyers. All said, take this city-wide data with a grain of salt.

 

Inventory - San Jose CA listings of houses / Single Family Homes for sale

 

Inventory remains severely low – currently showing the lowest April inventory over more than a decade! If you’re an active home buyer, it is slim pickings!

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

 

Trends At a GlanceApr 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,778,000 (+3.7%)$1,715,000$1,512,000 (+17.6%)
Average Price$1,852,680 (+1.1%)$1,832,510$1,670,450 (+10.9%)
No. of Sales349 (+17.5%)297273 (+27.8%)
Pending338 (+14.2%)296272 (+24.3%)
Active250 (+52.4%)164269 (-7.1%)
Sale vs. List Price111.2% (+1.0%)110.1%105.4% (+5.5%)
Days on Market11 (-24.7%)1420 (-46.6%)
Days of Inventory21 (+25.4%)1729 (-27.3%)

 

Available inventory is slightly less than where it was this time last year, while pending and closed sales have risen well above 2023 numbers. Demand is extremely high! The chart clearly shows a strong seller’s market that’s heating up through April. Keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

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