Bel Estos Drive near Carlton and Rosswood in San Jose's Cambrian areaMy Cambrian area of San Jose Real Estate Report was recently published with the updated numbers from the closed sales last month for this part of San Jose (95124 and 95118 with a little of 95008 too). Please click on the link above to see much more information there. Those charts are below.

Cambrian is MIXED at the moment, and the determining factor appears to be the school district. Overall, the Cambrian real estate market is a seller’s market, but one that has been softening over the last 6 months with prices coming down, the days on market going up, and conditions becoming more favorable for buyers with the passage of time.

Now, though, there seems to be an uptick in at least part of the Cambrian housing market. If we break it into different segments, we can see that it is not moving as one unified market, but rather as some micro markets moving somewhat independently.  Next, I’ll share some charts I’ve pulled from the MLS this morning to point to that fact, using the Days On Market (DOM) and Sale Price to List Price Ratio.

 

1 – All of Cambrian (MLS area 14, which includes 95124, most of 95118, and a little of 95008)  – days on market and sale price to list price ratio by month, including October so far. Notice that the decline has softened and the market is almost now flat.

 

The Cambrian real estate market - days on market and sale price to list price ratio

The Cambrian real estate market – days on market and sale price to list price ratio

 

2 – Cambrian with the Campbell Union High School District (95124 with some 95118) – same criteria as above

Cambrian with Campbell Union HSD

Cambrian with Campbell Union High School District – days on the market and sale price to list price ratio

It’s interesting that the days on market are steeper so far this month in the CUHSD part of Cambrian. Could it be that homes are more expensive, and price is a factor?  We’ll have to continue to check – see below.

3 – Cambrian with San Jose Unified School District

Cambrian with SJ Unified Schools - days on market and sale price to list price ratio

Cambrian with SJ Unified Schools – days on market and sale price to list price ratio

Here we see a clear indicator that the school district is a major driver in home values. (In fairness, it could also be a commute issue, as this area is farther from Sunnyvale / Mountain View, etc., or that could be a contributing factor.)

What about the impact on price and home size?

If you have been reading this monthly update for awhile, you’ve noticed that I take a hypothetical 3-4 bedroom home in Cambrian with 1000 to 1500 SF and compare a couple of factors each month. Let’s check it by high school district and see what we find.

4 – Cambrian with Campbell Union High School District, homes of 1000-1500 SF and 3-4 bedrooms:

Cambrian CUHSD 1000-1500 SF 3-4 beds

Cambrian CUHSD 1000-1500 SF 3-4 beds

Now we see a dramatic and unmistakable trend reversal! We must be cautious, seeing that we are just 8 days into the month, but it’s worth keeping an eye on it.

5 – Cambrian with San Jose Unified School District, 1000 – 1500 SF homes with 3-4 bedrooms

Cambrian SJUSD 1000-1500 SF, 3-4 bedrooms

Cambrian SJUSD 1000-1500 SF, 3-4 bedrooms

Unfortunately, there are NO sales recorded so far this month meeting the specialized criteria for bedrooms and square footage. We can see that the decline in values appears to be far less steep in September, though. If we compare this chart with the one above for all of Cambrian with SJ Unified, we can see that this is a far less determined pricing slide – less steep, less consistent. That tells me that modest homes (not lavish and large ones) are more insulated from pricing plunges.

To recap, I see two takeaways emerge:

1 – Modest houses of 1000 to 1500 square feet are faring better than the market as a whole (this is “basic housing”, not a luxury)
2 – Properties with Union and Cambrian schools, part of the Campbell Union School District, have not been suffering as much of a correction or adjustment as those with SJ Unified Schools
3 – Houses which are both modest and in CUHSD are not only faring better, but may be rebounding. We’ll have to watch and see.

Next, the monthly update with Cambrian 95124 with CUHSD, 1000-1500 SF:

Here are the averages from March to today (updated Oct 8, 2018):

March 2018 (10 sales)  average price per SF $1,100.53  average sale price $1,429,612
April 2018 (15 sales)     average price per SF $1,138.75  average sale price $1,417,000
May 2018 (14 sales)      average price per SF $1,076.54  average sale price $1,375,643
June 2018 (10 sales)     average price per SF   $980.64  average sale price  $1,258,550 
July 2018 (12 sales)       average price per SF   $974.35  average sale price  $1,232,958
August 2018 (9 sales)    average price per SF  $899.29  average sale price $1,176,522
September 2018 (11 sales)  average price per SF  $985.95  average sale price $1,235,545)   PRICES BACK UP

That is a drop in the average sale price of $194,067 over 6 months for this group, or about $32,344.50 per month on average (though some months it is more or less, and it was over $50k average a month ago – so the drop has lessened considerably). The data here uses a fairly small pool, so it may not be accurate for all parts of Cambrian, but it is an indicator of what the market is doing overall since this is a very in-demand segment of Cambrian.

No one knows if the Cambrian 95124 values will continue to rise, or flatten, or drop. There’s a lot going on politically, and sometimes election outcomes influence home values and real estate home buyer confidence and traffic. We’ll have to watch. But for now, it looks like the decline in Cambrian values may have come to a stop.

Trends at a Glance for Cambrian (95124 & 95118)

For all of Cambrian, prices are up decently from a year ago, but off a bit from last month. The sale price to list price ratio is still strong at 102.5%, but obviously less than it was. Days on market tightened over last month, but are twice as long as a year ago (which was an unprecedented fall price surge period). Pending sales are up. Days of inventory are down 33% from last month, but way up from a year ago. All in all, it is a seller’s market in Cambrian – a great time to sell at the moment, and a tough time for buyers to buy (but not as hard as it was 6 months ago).

Trends At a Glance Sep 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,205,000 (-7.1%) $1,297,500 $1,150,000 (+4.8%)
Average Price $1,296,020 (-1.5%) $1,315,560 $1,212,070 (+6.9%)
No. of Sales 62 (+19.2%) 52 58 (+6.9%)
Pending 52 (+4.0%) 50 54 (-3.7%)
Active 62 (-17.3%) 75 34 (+82.4%)
Sale vs. List Price 102.5% (-0.8%) 103.4% 108.7% (-5.7%)
Days on Market 24 (-8.1%) 26 12 (+104.3%)
Days of Inventory 29 (-33.0%) 43 17 (+70.6%)

 

And the month prior:

 

Trends At a Glance Aug 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,297,500 (+3.0%) $1,260,000 $1,152,000 (+12.6%)
Average Price $1,315,560 (+0.3%) $1,311,880 $1,182,770 (+11.2%)
No. of Sales 52 (-8.8%) 57 75 (-30.7%)
Pending 50 (-3.8%) 52 47 (+6.4%)
Active 75 (+7.1%) 70 25 (+200.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 103.4% (-1.6%) 105.1% 108.2% (-4.5%)
Days on Market 26 (+52.7%) 17 12 (+117.1%)
Days of Inventory 43 (+17.4%) 37 10 (+332.7%)

 

Generally speaking, despite the cooling, it is still a seller’s market and a decent time to sell a Cambrian home.
 Please see the whole Cambrian Real Estate Report for charts, stats and more.
Other related Cambrian district resources:
Learn about the Cambrian months of inventory, or absorption rate, by elementary school district.

The condo and townhouse real estate market for San Jose 95124 & 95118

The townhouse and condo real estate market in San Jose’s Cambrian area – Lower inventory can make the market look unbalanced, but it’s not always so. With such low inventory big swings in data are common. The numbers are not a large enough group to be truly representative of market values. Nevertheless, there are some clear trends. The average days on market remains low at 8 days. Sales to list price has returned to 117.2% above list price. This means homes are still regularly selling above list price in far below a month, and has been doing so consistently for many months, making this a stable, strong seller’s market.

The Real Estate Report for condo sales

Here, the number of sales is VERY small, so the numbers can appear to be a bit wonky. The best way to check these numbers is to simply check the sales in the same or similar community from a year ago and from the prior month.

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a Glance Sep 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $850,000 (+33.9%) $635,000 $797,000 (+6.6%)
Average Price $791,020 (+5.4%) $750,597 $749,833 (+5.5%)
No. of Sales 15 (+15.4%) 13 15 (0.0%)
Pending 10 (-28.6%) 14 11 (-9.1%)
Active 10 (+42.9%) 7 (+150.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 103.9% (-1.8%) 105.8% 107.0% (-2.9%)
Days on Market 15 (-4.4%) 16 11 (+36.4%)
Days of Inventory 19 (+19.7%) 16 (+150.0%)

 

And the month before:

 

 

Trends At a Glance Jul 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $835,000 (+11.3%) $750,000 $536,500 (+55.6%)
Average Price $827,951 (+1.4%) $816,794 $587,357 (+41.0%)
No. of Sales 19 (+11.8%) 17 14 (+35.7%)
Pending 11 (-26.7%) 15 12 (-8.3%)
Active 13 (+225.0%) 4 (+160.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 104.3% (-1.3%) 105.6% 104.7% (-0.5%)
Days on Market 17 (+10.5%) 15 10 (+65.4%)
Days of Inventory 21 (+200.8%) 7 11 (+91.6%)

 

Want to learn more about Cambrian Park real estate, the Cambrian district, Cambrian neighborhoods, school districts and zip codes? Please also see this article: Cambrian Park: Good Schools, Low Crime, Close to Los Gatos and Campbell. Cambrian neighborhoods can be located at the menu bar: Neighborhoods –> San Jose (all areas) –> Cambrian Park (SJ).

Be sure to read to the end to see the live Altos charts too – they are near the end of the article so please keep reading into the next page!

Please see the Cambrian Condominium & Townhouse Real Estate Report for all of the numbers in this area and the rest of Santa Clara County!

Now let’s work with Altos Research’s graphs and get a feel for the Cambrian realty market in “real time.” These use list prices, whereas my REReport uses sold data. First, the statistics by quartile for houses in San Jose 95118. A quick note: most of 95118 has San Jose Unified Schools, while 95124 has Cambrian and Union schools, which are normally preferred.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Next, the stats and trends by price quartile for houses in San Jose 95124: In 95124 we didn’t see the big departure from growth as seen in the rest of the zip as we saw in 95118 for early summer. But we do see very consistently rising prices throughout the area, with the higher priced homes appearing to have peaked and turned around. Median list price of homes for sale in 95124 and 95118 (all quartiles combined) :

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

As this graph indicates, homes in 95124 tend to sell for a bit more than those in 95118. In part, this is probably due to the fact that 95124 is in the Union and Cambrian School Districts, which many prefer to San Jose Unified (though part of 95118 is not in SJUSD). Part of it may have to do with some of the homes being on the Los Gatos border, which is highly desirable. And much of 95124 is a better commute location, with faster access to freeways. Inventory in Cambrian area of San Jose 95124:

 

95118: Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Want to buy or sell in Cambrian Park? Please call or email me – let’s talk! Want more info on your neighborhood, your house, or your target home to buy? Please call me!

Browse real estate listings of Cambrian & Cambrian Park homes for sale San Jose 95118:

  1. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,569 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,534 sqft
  2. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,816 sq ft
    Lot size: 5,000 sqft
  3. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,956 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,838 sqft
  4. 4 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 1,736 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,825 sqft
  5. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,198 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,899 sqft

See all Real estate in the 95118 zip code.
(all data current as of 10/20/2018)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

  1. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,569 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,534 sqft
  2. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,816 sq ft
    Lot size: 5,000 sqft
  3. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,956 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,838 sqft
  4. 4 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 1,736 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,825 sqft
  5. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,198 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,899 sqft

See all Real estate in the 95118 zip code.
(all data current as of 10/20/2018)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Find a Cambrian home: real estate listings of Cambrian & Cambrian Park homes for sale in San Jose 95124:

  1. 4 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 2,670 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,394 sqft
  2. 3 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 2,141 sq ft
    Lot size: 9,239 sqft
  3. 3 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 1,931 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,660 sqft
  4. 4 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 1,760 sq ft
    Lot size: 5,950 sqft
  5. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,392 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,359 sqft

See all Real estate in the 95124 zip code.
(all data current as of 10/20/2018)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

  1. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,569 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,534 sqft
  2. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,816 sq ft
    Lot size: 5,000 sqft
  3. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,956 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,838 sqft
  4. 4 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 1,736 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,825 sqft
  5. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,198 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,899 sqft

See all Real estate in the 95118 zip code.
(all data current as of 10/20/2018)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

 

Love Cambrian?Learn more about it here!

 

See also:  Cambrian Park homes for sale

Translation

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Mary Pope-Handy
Realtor
ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95030
408 204-7673
Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
License# 01153805


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