San Jose - Valley View 2019-1-20 - for the San Jose real estate marketHow is the San Jose real estate market? Today we’ll approach that question from several positions. San Jose is the biggest city in Silicon Valley (and considers itself to be the Capital of Silicon Valley), is the tenth largest city in the United States of America with over 1 million in population, and it has a very large footprint – approximately 180 square miles. Because of the size, it isn’t surprising that many distinct neighborhoods exist within the city. In this article, we’ll view the San Jose real estate market as a whole, but elsewhere in this site you can find info on specific districts, such as Cambrian, Almaden, Willow Glen, Evergreen, etc..

First please find the Altos Research Charts, a live feed of data on the housing markets in San Jose. You will then also find the RE Report, charts with statistics comparing sales in the last month and comparing them month-over-month and year-over-year. These are both the usual tools I use to gauge a market. Directly below are links to the market analysis of specific neighborhoods in San Jose. Some of these, where I work the most, are updated monthly, and others are updated every few months.

Altos Charts for the San Jose real estate market as a Whole – automatically updated each week – single family homes

First, the market profile and then the basic charts for single family homes or houses in San Jose. FYI, Altos uses LIST prices. The RE Report further down uses SOLD prices (which is part of the reason why I utilize both).

 

 

This Real-Time Market Profile (last updated 11/12/2019 as of this writing) shows on the graph a steady decline of the list prices, declining inventory, rising days on market, and declining rent rates. That being said, the Market Action Index still shows a stable, steady Strong Seller’s Market. The Median List Price (for condos and houses combined) is $1,100,00.

List prices of single family homes / houses by price quartile:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

All four price sectors parallel each other almost exactly, following the same gentle ups and downs throughout the year.

Average days on market of listed homes (houses) by pricing tier:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Here we see a little different movement, while pricing ups and downs follow each other closely between the markets, the days on market can vary and shift greatly. While they do follow similar trends, at times the fastest or slowest markets might change positions. Right now we are seeing a fairly typical trend. The highest priced homes are selling much more slowly than the others, almost double the time, and the entry level homes are selling fastest. Surprisingly, the upper tier (second most expensive tier) was selling fastest for a third of the year, and has only just slowed to the same speed as the lowest tier.

Inventory levels for the last 3 years for houses for sale in San Jose:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

This chart shows the total inventory since around the start of 2017. For a while, just around the end of 2016 was the peak of inventory, but it’s recently been beaten just in the second half of 2019. We are still well above the average inventory levels for 2018 and 2017, but in this last quarter of the year inventory is taking a dip.

 

Altos Research charts for the condomium and townhouse realty market in San Jose – automatically updated each week

Condominium and townhouse LIST prices by quartile:

 

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Again, like the housing market, these separate quartiles parallel the up and down trends very closely, although the overall price dip here compared to houses is a little more noticeable.

 

Average Days On Market for condos and townhomes in San Jose:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Everything’s a little tighter in the condo charts, but again mirrors housing. Here, though, the entry level properties are the second longest to sell, behind the luxury units, and the upper second tier is still the fastest by a hair.

Inventory of available properties among condos and townhomes:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Condos didn’t have quite as big a peak as houses did for inventory in 2017. The tail of 2018 was just a hair above the end of 2017 for inventory, but as in the housing market, inventory skyrocketed in 2019, though the last quarter has seen a downturn since its peak.

But the San Jose market is a very general gague.

I try to update these housing  market posts regularly every month as the RE Reports come in, so around the second week of the month, maybe earlier. These are the areas I am most active in San Jose.

The Evergreen area of San Jose (includes a market report)

Willow Glen real estate market – San Jose 95125

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update

Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions

And these are areas I also work in. These areas are updated every month or so.

The real estate market in San Jose’s Santa Teresa area

The real estate market in San Jose’s Blossom Valley area

The Cupertino Border, or San Jose CA 95129 Real Estate Market Info

Interested in areas outside of the City of San Jose? I make monthly updates for many areas around Silicon Valley, such as Los Gatos, Campbell, Saratoga, Santa Clara, and Sunnyvale, so feel free to check out my other market posts as well, under How’s the Market? or Market Reports! You can also find City, Town, and Neighborhood descriptions here to help you get acquainted with the area.

 

Now for a market update on the City of San Jose as a whole:

First, using the ReReport. You can find the whole ReReport here.

Here is the chart for the market in single family homes in the city of San Jose, where the market is softening in some regards, but improving in others.

City of San Jose real estate market – Trends at a Glance

If you are viewing the table below on mobile, it is responsive: please swipe to see more of it.

Trends At a Glance Oct 2019 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,075,000 (-0.2%) $1,077,500 $1,150,000 (-6.5%)
Average Price $1,171,300 (-0.3%) $1,174,560 $1,201,530 (-2.5%)
No. of Sales 399 (+9.6%) 364 412 (-3.2%)
Pending 443 (+0.9%) 439 395 (+12.2%)
Active 441 (-21.1%) 559 689 (-36.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.1% (-0.2%) 100.3% 101.7% (-1.6%)
Days on Market 30 (-10.5%) 34 25 (+19.4%)
Days of Inventory 33 (-25.5%) 45 50 (-33.9%)

 

There has been some back and forth fluctuation for a while. This month, for instance, the number of sales is up from last month and the days on market have sped to a 30 day average. Still, the prices are slowly cooling, as is the sale to list price ratio, and everything is cooler than a year ago.

And to compare, the chart from last month:

 

Trends At a Glance Sep 2019 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,077,500 (+2.6%) $1,050,000 $1,142,500 (-5.7%)
Average Price $1,174,560 (+1.6%) $1,156,610 $1,225,760 (-4.2%)
No. of Sales 364 (-20.7%) 459 408 (-10.8%)
Pending 439 (-1.1%) 444 428 (+2.6%)
Active 559 (-4.9%) 588 652 (-14.3%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.3% (-0.1%) 100.5% 102.1% (-1.7%)
Days on Market 34 (+13.2%) 30 26 (+30.9%)
Days of Inventory 45 (+15.9%) 38 46 (-3.9%)

 

This chart shows what we mean by fluctuation, two months ago look very close to this month’s data, but last month prices went up a hair, as did the days on market, but the number of sales went down.

And now let’s turn to the condo and townhouse market, which has improved from last month.

Trends at a Glance: San Jose real estate market for condos & townhomes

If you are viewing the table below on mobile, it is responsive: please swipe to see more of it.

 

Trends At a Glance Oct 2019 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $727,500 (+1.3%) $718,000 $750,000 (-3.0%)
Average Price $728,912 (+1.1%) $721,153 $803,038 (-9.2%)
No. of Sales 206 (+40.1%) 147 151 (+36.4%)
Pending 210 (-5.8%) 223 183 (+14.8%)
Active 264 (-22.1%) 339 309 (-14.6%)
Sale vs. List Price 99.3% (-0.5%) 99.8% 102.5% (-3.2%)
Days on Market 40 (+11.8%) 36 23 (+77.7%)
Days of Inventory 38 (-42.5%) 67 61 (-37.4%)

 

While there are fewer listings by a good deal (approximately 22% fewer), the number of sales has gone up significantly (over 40%). Prices are up a hair, but so are the days on market. When markets fluctuate a lot like this, the sales vs list price comparison can be helpful. Here we can see that condos are selling on average close to list price, this month at 99.3% of list, but is slowly cooling from last month, and very noticeably from a year ago (which was 102.5%)

And the chart from the month before for comparison:

 

 

 

 

Mary Pope-Handy
Realtor
ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95030
408 204-7673
Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
License# 01153805


Selling homes in
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Santa Clara County,
San Mateo County, and
Santa Cruz County.
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Special focus on:
San Jose, Los Gatos,
Saratoga, Campbell,
Almaden Valley,
Cambrian Park.
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