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San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market remains in transition. While it is still a clear seller’s market, things are much cooler than what they were earlier this year. Demand may have shrunk, but so has inventory, so we’re not seeing dramatic cooling.

First, some quick data from my RE Report via the bullets and chart below. There appears to be a small amount of undercounting or overcounting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, but the information is still good for tracking trends.

  • The October 2022 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes dipped to 99.7% of asking (-0.6% from last month), and remains below last year for the fifth month in a row.
  • Monthly home prices are up a sliver from a year ago after falling below last year in August for the first time since 2019
    • The median sale price remains $1,450,000 – astonishingly consistent with the month before and with last year!
    • The average sale price was $1,582,630 (+1.7% from the month before, and +2.4% from last year)
  • The days on market held relatively stable at an average of just under a month at 27 days, almost twice as long as last year.

War, inflation, stock market, recession concerns – and real estate

Many of our home buyers are financially powered by tech stocks, stock options, and RSUs. When the stock market tanks, some buyers will rush to put their cash into real estate (the quip we often hear is that “real estate does not go to zero” and “at least you can live in it”.

For some, the rising interest rates combined with the lower stock values have been a double whammy on affordability in a market still seeing sky high prices. If the most amply capable buyers don’t want to sell their holdings at a 10% or more discount from what they were, that will impact how much they are willing to pay.

We are finally seeing signs of cooling in the market with homes recieving fewer offers than they may have at the peak of the market, and prices are coming down. That said, much of the entry-level market is still raging hot. The best homes, when appropriately priced and marketed, are still recieving multiple offers and selling well above asking.

However one thing is keeping the market hot: limited inventory. Nationwide, inventory has begun to drop again and overall we remain in a housing supply shortage (each market will vary, of course). So how far off are we from “normal” inventory levels? Let’s have a look at historic active listings in San Jose. (If the chart is too small, click to see in full size.)

San Jose Historic Active Inventory 2022-11-15

At the start of the chart, 2010, the market was still reeling from the 2008 recession, but by 2017 we were seeing a strong sellers market with record low inventory. While listings are certainly up from 2021’s rock-bottom lows, it’s still limited and well below that of more balanced market years like 2013 and 2014.

Will the shortage of homes lead to wild market action like earlier this year? Unlikely. With everything else that’s changed such as the interest rates rising. But will it continue to cool or will it heat up again in autumn? We’ll have to wait and see.

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

Trends At a Glance Oct 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,450,000 (0.0%) $1,450,000 $1,450,000 (0.0%)
Average Price $1,582,630 (+1.7%) $1,556,090 $1,544,870 (+2.4%)
No. of Sales 329 (-12.0%) 374 519 (-36.6%)
Pending 516 (-11.2%) 581 624 (-17.3%)
Active 357 (-19.0%) 441 249 (+43.4%)
Sale vs. List Price 99.7% (-0.6%) 100.4% 108.5% (-8.1%)
Days on Market 27 (-3.9%) 28 15 (+88.0%)
Days of Inventory 33 (-4.8%) 34 14 (+126.2%)

 

Please keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

Year over year and related charts from MLS Listings

I pulled these directly from the MLS myself today (11/15/2022). The partial data from this month is included in gray, but as it is an incomplete picture of the month it should be taken with a grain of salt. As with the earlier chart, click to view the full size.

The San Jose Real estate market’s sale price to list price ratio –  what a rollercoaster! The streak of record breaking highs that going from around mid-2021 through spring of 2022 is mind boggling! After reaching astronomical heights, the streak came crashing down in June 2022. August was the coolest we’ve seen since 2011 for this ratio! September picked back up, but it was cooler than most years and didn’t last long – this October was the lowest of any year on this chart.

San Jose Historic Sale to List Price Ratio 2022-11-15

Notice that MOST YEARS, but not always, the sale price to list price ratio tends to peak around April with a rise between March and April and a dip from April to May. It fell a little in 2020, but that did not turn into the correction we all anticipated at the start of COVID. Look into late 2020 and you’ll see that all we were actually experiencing was a slight breather – very slight.

Now looking at this year, winter 2022 started off raging hot and spring hit it’s peak for overbids in March and began to decline in April very rapidly.

 

Average price per square foot

This one has also saw an increase in September and dip in October and finally, for the first time in 2022, fell below last year. Prior to February 2022, the monthly average price per SF never topped $1,000, but it moved well past it and held there for the first half of 2022. Now that number has finally come down like the rest of the market and remains well above 2020 values.

San Jose Historic Price per SqFt 2022-11-15

 

Average sales price of homes in San Jose, CA

Finally, the average sale price. With fewer offers (not a data point that is well tracked by the MLS as it is an optional entry field for the listing agents), we would expect prices to flatten or lower a bit. Prices peaked a tad earlier than usual in April 2022 and the average price has been declining significantly since – roughly $100K a month from April to August! Things have started to turn around since, with prices rising in September and October. Overall prices are slightly higher than last year and still significantly higher than 2019 or 2020.

San Jose Historic Average Sale Price 2022-11-15

 

The market might be evening out from the most severe plunge, but it’s still in flux!

That’s it for the hand pulled data this month, now for some live charts which update weekly.

 

Altos Charts for the San Jose real estate market as a Whole – automatically updated each week – single family homes

First, the market profile and then the basic charts for single family homes or houses in San Jose. FYI, Altos uses LIST prices, not sold prices. Compared to list pricing, sales higher – sometimes hundreds of thousands of dollars more!

 

 

Altos Charts, updated automatically, by price quartile for San Jose single family homes

If you aren’t on data overload yet, next please check out the live charts. These update about once per week, so check often.

List prices of single family homes / houses by price quartile:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Average days on market of listed homes (houses) by pricing tier:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Inventory levels for the last 3 years for houses for sale in San Jose:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Things were looking hopeful in summer that more inventory was on the way, but we’re not out of the red yet!

Altos Research charts for the condominium and townhouse realty market in San Jose – automatically updated each week

Condominium and townhouse LIST prices by quartile:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Again, like the housing market, these separate quartiles tend to parallel the up and down trends very closely.

Average Days On Market for condos and townhomes in San Jose:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Inventory of available properties among condos and townhomes:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

 

Now let’s go back to the ReReport to see what it says about the San Jose townhome and condo market.

Trends at a Glance: San Jose real estate market for condos & townhomes

If you are viewing the table below on mobile, it is responsive: please swipe to see more of it. See the full condo ReReport here.

San Jose real estate market: condo summary from the RE Report

Prices have come down from spring heights, and this market finally dropped below last year in September and remains there in October. The sale to list price ratio has risen a hair again for the second month in a row, although prices are down. Closed sales, pending sales, and active inventory all fell while days on market sped up. There are mixed signals in this data, but overall it remains a sellers market that’s significantly cooler than what we saw last year.

 

Trends At a Glance Oct 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $750,000 (-10.2%) $835,000 $770,000 (-2.6%)
Average Price $794,935 (-7.2%) $856,846 $815,416 (-2.5%)
No. of Sales 130 (-26.6%) 177 219 (-40.6%)
Pending 175 (-11.6%) 198 296 (-40.9%)
Active 193 (-3.5%) 200 158 (+22.2%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.7% (+0.4%) 100.3% 103.9% (-3.1%)
Days on Market 25 (-9.5%) 27 21 (+21.2%)
Days of Inventory 45 (+35.9%) 33 22 (+105.8%)
San Jose’s markets may have faced some major challenges this year and last, but as long as demand remains high and we have a scarcity of homes it’s likely to stay in the seller’s favor – even while it’s cooling down.

Related info:

The Evergreen area of San Jose (includes a market report)

Willow Glen real estate market – San Jose 95125

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update

Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions

And these are areas we also work in. These areas are updated every month or so.

The real estate market in San Jose’s Santa Teresa area

The real estate market in San Jose’s Blossom Valley area

The Cupertino Border, or San Jose CA 95129 Real Estate Market Info

Interested in areas outside of the City of San Jose? I make monthly updates for many areas around Silicon Valley, such as Los Gatos, Campbell, Saratoga, Santa Clara, and Sunnyvale, so feel free to check out my other market posts as well, under How’s the Market? or Market Reports! You can also find City, Town, and Neighborhood descriptions here to help you get acquainted with the area.

Authors

  • Clair Handy

    Realtor, GREEN | DRE 02153633 | Christie's International Real Estate - Sereno

  • Mary Pope-Handy

    Silicon Valley Realtor, selling homes in Los Gatos, Saratoga, San Jose, Silicon Valley, and nearby since 1993. Prolific blogger with a network of sites.