San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market remains in a red hot seller’s market through mid-spring!

First, some quick data from my RE Report and hand-pulled from the MLS today. There appears to be a small amount of under- or over-counting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, so numbers vary slightly between the two, but the data is still useful for trend tracking.

  • The April 2024 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes rose to 111.2% of asking, that’s +1.0% from last month per the RE Report and +5.5% from this time 2023. For the MLS stats we pulled today, it shows 111.1% average, up from 109.5% (+1.6%) the month prior. Either way, the average home is selling consistently over list price in San Jose, and heating up fast towards spring.
  • Home values for single family properties are up from this time last year by approximately 10% – 18%, and month-over-month closed sales prices rose by around 1% – 4% (RE Report, average and median prices).
  • The time on market sped up month-over-month to a 11 day average (RE Report).

Market Data: What Numbers Make a Difference

While we aren’t seeing the same market acceleration as we did at the peak, in some ways this market has been even more challenging for buyers. For most buyers, their ability to purchase has been severely impacted by higher rates on home loans and the changing insurance market. But the biggest hurdle for most buyers is the extreme and persistent lack of available homes!

Since March 2023 San Jose has frequently had record breaking low inventory, often marking new lows with the fewest available listings by month in over a decade. And it doesn’t look like inventory will really pick up any time soon, either.

Why such low inventory?

While in a more typical market we might have a number of sellers looking to “move up” or downsize, most homeowners today couldn’t afford to move or don’t want to take on a higher-rate mortgage. Now it seems like a higher percentage of the listings we are seeing comes from investors, people leaving the area, and sales by family after a death – cases where there is no pressure to repurchase or where selling is the only option. One exception we’re starting to see is homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages who don’t have the same low rate incentive to hold on to their current home. Still, that limits significantly what is available to buyers!

Although inventory remains at record-breaking lows with higher demand than availability, sale prices and overbids are not necessarily breaking records like last year’s spring peak. Many buyers are experiencing significantly more pressure from higher interest rates, fluctuating stocks, looming layoffs, and other factors limiting purchase power and lowering confidence. That said, not every home will face the same challenges – there are loads of micro markets that influence how well any given home does, and decent homes that are marketed appropriately still regularly become bidding wars for driven buyers. All said, take this city-wide data with a grain of salt.

 

Inventory - San Jose CA listings of houses / Single Family Homes for sale

 

Inventory remains severely low – currently showing the lowest April inventory over more than a decade! If you’re an active home buyer, it is slim pickings!

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

 

Trends At a GlanceApr 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,778,000 (+3.7%)$1,715,000$1,512,000 (+17.6%)
Average Price$1,852,680 (+1.1%)$1,832,510$1,670,450 (+10.9%)
No. of Sales349 (+17.5%)297273 (+27.8%)
Pending338 (+14.2%)296272 (+24.3%)
Active250 (+52.4%)164269 (-7.1%)
Sale vs. List Price111.2% (+1.0%)110.1%105.4% (+5.5%)
Days on Market11 (-24.7%)1420 (-46.6%)
Days of Inventory21 (+25.4%)1729 (-27.3%)

 

Available inventory is slightly less than where it was this time last year, while pending and closed sales have risen well above 2023 numbers. Demand is extremely high! The chart clearly shows a strong seller’s market that’s heating up through April. Keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

Year & Month Breakdown of San Jose Housing Market Data

I pulled these directly from the MLS myself today (05/08/2024) using single family home sales in the city of San Jose, CA.

So first, what are the seasonal trends? Many years, December and January are low points, and by February we tend to see this figure rise towards a March or April peak. This is typically followed by a slightly calmer, but more stable summer which begins to slow down around autumn. So currently we’re at a point of the year where the market is likely at its peak.

The San Jose Real estate market’s sale price to list price ratio is one of the data points that shows us how much the market softened from the peak in early 2022, as well as how much it’s picked back up since it’s turning point around the middle of 2023.

 

Sale price to list price ratio - San Jose SFH

 

 

Average price per square foot

Prices are already higher than anything we saw across all of last year, if you’re just looking at the average price per square foot. If we look at it as a “price rollback”, we are at about closest to March 2022 – that’s white hot!

 

Price per Square Foot - San Jose Houses / Single Family Home Sold

 

Average sales price of homes in San Jose, CA

Finally, the average sale price. With fewer offers (not a data point that is well tracked by the MLS as it is an optional entry field for the listing agents), we would expect prices to flatten or lower a bit. The more offers, the higher prices – more competition makes prices (overbidding) likely to rise. With such low inventory, the best homes remain in high demand more often than not pushing buyers into bidding wars.

In 2022, prices peaked a tad earlier than usual in April and the average price declined significantly since – roughly $100K a month between April and August of 2022! Things flattened for a bit from there with some fluctuation back and forth through autumn and winter.

Last year, it looked like April 2023 was also the spring peak with prices coming down in May, but June prices soared above both, and yet again in September prices shot up to the highest we’d seen that year! Many years we see prices appreciate in the first quarter – last year that warming trend continued into summer with some fluctuations causing occasional spikes.

Today, April 2024 certainly has the highest prices of spring so far, but based on the few closed sales in early May it’s not yet showing signs of slowing down.

With so few listings and sales, tracking any given market has been a challenge!

 

Average Sales Price - San Jose Houses / Single Family Home Sold

Click to view larger size: Average sale price – San Jose Single Family homes

 

That’s it for the hand pulled data this month, now for some live charts which update automatically every week.

 

Altos Charts for the San Jose real estate market as a Whole – automatically updated each week – single family homes

First, the market profile and then the basic charts for single family homes or houses in San Jose. FYI, Altos uses LIST prices, not sold prices. Compared to list prices, sales prices are generally higher in this market – sometimes hundreds of thousands of dollars more.

 

 

 

Altos Charts, updated automatically, by price quartile for San Jose single family homes

If you aren’t on data overload yet, next please check out the live charts. These update about once per week, so check often.

List prices of single family homes / houses by price quartile:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Average days on market of listed homes (houses) by pricing tier:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Inventory levels for the last 5 years for houses for sale in San Jose:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Things were looking hopeful in summer 2022 that more inventory was on the way, but it remained far bellow “normal” levels. Then in 2023 it was flatlining with almost no growth in inventory the entire year, then declining through winter 2023-2024 and only barely starting to pick back up in spring 2024 (and still below even 2023 levels!).

Altos Research charts for the condominium and townhouse realty market in San Jose – automatically updated each week

Condominium and townhouse LIST prices by quartile:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Again, like the housing market, these separate quartiles tend to parallel the up and down trends very closely.

Average Days On Market for condos and townhomes in San Jose:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Inventory of available properties among condos and townhomes:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

 

Now let’s go back to the ReReport to see what it says about the San Jose townhome and condo market.

Trends at a Glance: San Jose real estate market for condos & townhomes

If you are viewing the table below on mobile, it is responsive: please swipe to see more of it. See the full condo ReReport here.

San Jose real estate market: condo summary from the RE Report

Please note the number of active listings versus pending and closed sales, as well as the days on market – there’s plenty of demand, though it’s distinctly calmer than it is in single family homes. There’s still a much greater demand than properties available making it a challenging time for buyers.

 

Trends At a GlanceApr 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$870,000 (+2.4%)$850,000$867,500 (+0.3%)
Average Price$950,232 (+6.8%)$889,551$897,577 (+5.9%)
No. of Sales163 (+19.0%)137132 (+23.5%)
Pending164 (+6.5%)154122 (+34.4%)
Active152 (+20.6%)126108 (+40.7%)
Sale vs. List Price105.7% (+1.3%)104.3%103.2% (+2.4%)
Days on Market15 (-25.3%)2020 (-24.6%)
Days of Inventory27 (-2.0%)2824 (+14.0%)

 

San Jose real estate markets may have faced some major challenges in 2021 – 2022, but as long as demand remains high and we have a scarcity of homes it’s likely to stay strongly in the seller’s favor, even while buyers become more selective as their purchase power shrinks.

Related info:

The Evergreen area of San Jose (includes a market report)

Willow Glen real estate market – San Jose 95125

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update

Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions

And these are areas we also work in. These areas are updated every month or so.

The real estate market in San Jose’s Santa Teresa area

The real estate market in San Jose’s Blossom Valley area

The Cupertino Border, or San Jose CA 95129 Real Estate Market Info

Interested in areas outside of the City of San Jose? I make monthly updates for many areas around Silicon Valley, such as Los Gatos, Campbell, Saratoga, Santa Clara, and Sunnyvale, so feel free to check out my other market posts as well, under How’s the Market? or Market Reports! You can also find City, Town, and Neighborhood descriptions here to help you get acquainted with the area.

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