San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market remains in a hot seller’s market, keeping active into winter with slight seasonal cooling. Demand may have shrunk between rising rates and inflation, but inventory remains historically low so it’s still far from balanced!

First, some quick data from my RE Report and hand-pulled from the MLS today. There appears to be a small amount of under- or over-counting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, so numbers vary slightly between the two, but the data is still useful for trend tracking.

  • The January 2024 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes rose to 104.7% of asking, that’s +1.6% from last month per the RE Report and +6.1% from this time 2023, following the bottom of the market’s decline. For the MLS stats we pulled today, however, it shows 104.4% average, up from 102.8% (+1.6%) the month prior. Either way, the average home is selling consistently over list price in San Jose, and warming up into the new year.
  • Home values for single family properties are up from this time last year by approximately 8% – 19%, and month-over-month closed sales prices rose around 1% – 5%.
  • The time on market slowed slightly month-over-month to a 22 day average (RE Report). That’s still quick turnover averaging well below a month, indicating a clear seller’s market.

Market Data: What Numbers Make a Difference

While prices and overbids have fallen since the peak, in some ways 2023 was even more challenging for buyers. For most buyers, their ability to purchase has been severely impacted by higher rates on home loans and the changing insurance market. But the biggest hurdle for most buyers is the extreme and persistent lack of available homes!

Since March 2023 San Jose has frequently had record breaking low inventory, often marking new lows with the fewest available listings by month in over a decade. And it doesn’t look like inventory will really pick up any time soon, either.

Why such low inventory?

While in a more typical market we might have a number of sellers looking to “move up” or downsize, most homeowners today couldn’t afford to move or don’t want to take on a higher-rate mortgage. Now it seems like a higher percentage of the listings we are seeing comes from investors, people leaving the area, and sales by family after a death – cases where there is no pressure to repurchase or where selling is the only option. One exception we’re starting to see is homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages who don’t have the same low rate to hold on to at their current home. Still, that limits significantly what is available to buyers!

Although inventory remains at record-breaking lows with higher demand than availability, sale prices and overbids are not breaking records like last year’s spring peak. Many buyers are experiencing significantly more pressure from higher interest rates, fluctuating stocks, looming layoffs, and other factors limiting purchase power and lowering confidence. That said, not every home will face the same challenges – there are loads of micro markets that influence how well any given home does, and decent homes that are marketed appropriately still regularly become bidding wars for driven buyers. All said, take this city-wide data with a grain of salt.

 

Inventory - San Jose CA listings of houses / Single Family Homes for sale

 

Inventory remains severely low – currently showing the second lowest January inventory over more than a decade (only January 2022 was lower)! If you’re an active home buyer, it is slim pickings!

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

 

Trends At a GlanceJan 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,600,000 (+4.9%)$1,525,000$1,347,500 (+18.7%)
Average Price$1,693,940 (+1.0%)$1,677,520$1,563,350 (+8.4%)
No. of Sales157 (-25.2%)210128 (+22.7%)
Pending197 (+20.1%)164152 (+29.6%)
Active120 (+25.0%)96250 (-52.0%)
Sale vs. List Price104.7% (+1.6%)103.1%98.7% (+6.1%)
Days on Market22 (+14.1%)1931 (-28.7%)
Days of Inventory23 (+67.2%)1459 (-60.9%)

 

Available inventory is less than half of was at this time last year, while pending and closed sales have risen above 2023 numbers. Demand is extremely high! The chart clearly shows a strong seller’s market launching out of a slightly cooler December and into the new year. Winter tends to be the best time for buyers to snag a “deal”, however we’re beginning to leave the winter trends behind and spring is fast approaching! Keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

Year & Month Breakdown of San Jose Housing Market Data

I pulled these directly from the MLS myself today (02/16/2024) using single family home sales in the city of San Jose, CA.

So first, what are the seasonal trends? Many years, December and January are low points, and by February we tend to see this figure rise towards a March or April peak. This is typically followed by a slightly calmer, but more stable summer which begins to slow down around autumn. So currently we’re at a point of the year where the market is usually calmer, though early spring trends are definitely noticeable.

The San Jose Real estate market’s sale price to list price ratio is one of the data points that shows us how much the market softened from the peak early 2022, as well as how much it’s picked back up around the middle of 2023.

 

Sale price to list price ratio - San Jose SFH

 

 

Average price per square foot

Prices have come down since the peak of the market in spring 2022, although it was rising again in 2023 up until October when we finally saw it start to cool again. If we look at it as a “price rollback”, we are at about closest to June 2023, or January 2022.

 

Price per Square Foot - San Jose Houses / Single Family Home Sold

 

Average sales price of homes in San Jose, CA

Finally, the average sale price. With fewer offers (not a data point that is well tracked by the MLS as it is an optional entry field for the listing agents), we would expect prices to flatten or lower a bit. The more offers, the higher prices – more competition makes prices (overbidding) likely to rise. With such low inventory, the best homes remain in high demand more often than not pushing buyers into bidding wars.

In 2022, prices peaked a tad earlier than usual in April and the average price declined significantly since – roughly $100K a month between April and August of 2022! Things flattened for a bit from there with some fluctuation back and forth through autumn and winter.

Last year, it looked like April 2023 was also the spring peak with prices coming down in May, but June prices soared above both, and yet again in September prices shot up to the highest we’d seen that year! Many years we see prices appreciate in the first quarter – last year that warming trend continued into summer with some fluctuations causing occasional spikes.

With so few listings and sales, tracking any given market has been a challenge!

 

Average Sales Price - San Jose Houses / Single Family Home Sold

Click to view full size: Average sale price – San Jose Single Family homes

 

That’s it for the hand pulled data this month, now for some live charts which update automatically every week.

 

Altos Charts for the San Jose real estate market as a Whole – automatically updated each week – single family homes

First, the market profile and then the basic charts for single family homes or houses in San Jose. FYI, Altos uses LIST prices, not sold prices. Compared to list prices, sales prices are generally higher in this market – sometimes hundreds of thousands of dollars more.

 

 

 

Altos Charts, updated automatically, by price quartile for San Jose single family homes

If you aren’t on data overload yet, next please check out the live charts. These update about once per week, so check often.

List prices of single family homes / houses by price quartile:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Average days on market of listed homes (houses) by pricing tier:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Inventory levels for the last 3 years for houses for sale in San Jose:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Things were looking hopeful in summer 2022 that more inventory was on the way, but it remained far bellow “normal” levels and it was flatlining through 2023! There has been almost no growth in inventory the entire year, and it’s still on the decline through winter 2023-2024.

Altos Research charts for the condominium and townhouse realty market in San Jose – automatically updated each week

Condominium and townhouse LIST prices by quartile:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Again, like the housing market, these separate quartiles tend to parallel the up and down trends very closely.

Average Days On Market for condos and townhomes in San Jose:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Inventory of available properties among condos and townhomes:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

 

Now let’s go back to the ReReport to see what it says about the San Jose townhome and condo market.

Trends at a Glance: San Jose real estate market for condos & townhomes

If you are viewing the table below on mobile, it is responsive: please swipe to see more of it. See the full condo ReReport here.

San Jose real estate market: condo summary from the RE Report

Please note the number of listings versus pending and closed sales, as well as the days on market – there’s plenty of demand in this market, though it’s distinctly calmer than it is in single family homes. There’s still a much greater demand than properties listed making it a challenging time for buyers.

 

Trends At a GlanceJan 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$775,000 (-3.6%)$804,000$738,000 (+5.0%)
Average Price$848,908 (-0.3%)$851,262$831,294 (+2.1%)
No. of Sales85 (-19.0%)10565 (+30.8%)
Pending118 (+35.6%)8786 (+37.2%)
Active107 (+3.9%)103138 (-22.5%)
Sale vs. List Price100.3% (-0.3%)100.5%100.1% (+0.2%)
Days on Market39 (+38.2%)2834 (+15.1%)
Days of Inventory38 (+28.3%)2964 (-40.7%)

 

San Jose’s markets may have faced some major challenges in 2021 – 2022, but as long as demand remains high and we have a scarcity of homes it’s likely to stay strongly in the seller’s favor, even while buyers become more selective while their purchase power shrinks.

Related info:

The Evergreen area of San Jose (includes a market report)

Willow Glen real estate market – San Jose 95125

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update

Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions

And these are areas we also work in. These areas are updated every month or so.

The real estate market in San Jose’s Santa Teresa area

The real estate market in San Jose’s Blossom Valley area

The Cupertino Border, or San Jose CA 95129 Real Estate Market Info

Interested in areas outside of the City of San Jose? I make monthly updates for many areas around Silicon Valley, such as Los Gatos, Campbell, Saratoga, Santa Clara, and Sunnyvale, so feel free to check out my other market posts as well, under How’s the Market? or Market Reports! You can also find City, Town, and Neighborhood descriptions here to help you get acquainted with the area.