How is the real estate market in the Willow Glen area of San Jose? There are multiple ways of viewing it – via price point, school district, proximity to “downtown Willow Glen”, by numbers or percentages of distressed sales (sale type), and many more criteria. Today we’ll look at the broad market numbers for the MLS “area 10” (all of Willow Glen) and at times just the zip code for San Jose 95125, which covers the majority of the Willow Glen area. This post will only cover houses or “single family homes”, not condominiums or townhomes.
I ran the months of inventory for homes in Willow Glen (our MLS area 10) by sale type. Here’s what I found – most of the market appears to have about 4.95 months of inventory, with short sales being considerably longer. (This may have had different results had I isolated certain school areas or price points – this is a “sweeping view” of the area only.) The National Association of Realtors says that less than 6 months is a sellers market, but for our area, this is fairly “cool” and most sellers would not find the market to be all that much in their favor. (Six months is supposed to be a balanced market.)
It is unusual for there to be so little variation in the MOI, so I double checked but this appears correct. Often bank owned homes or REOs fly off the market. Odd that it’s not happening here, too.
Next, a selection of statistics and trends in the numbers from my REReport for Willow Glen (click on link for more info) – prices here reflect sold prices (median and average), not list prices:
|Trends At a Glance||Apr 2011||Previous Month||Year-over Year|
|Median Price||$675,000||$704,500 (-4.2%)||$665,000 (+1.5%)|
|Average Price||$710,516||$788,240 (-9.9%)||$676,773 (+5.0%)|
|No. of Sales||46||56 (-17.9%)||41 (+12.2%)|
|Pending Properties||85||85 (0.0%)||114 (-25.4%)|
|Active||183||158 (+15.8%)||188 (-2.7%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||97.2%||96.5% (+0.8%)||98.8% (-1.6%)|
|Days on Market||57||71 (-19.9%)||51 (+11.4%)|
Prices appear down from the prior month but up from a year ago. That’s good news for Willow Glen home owners, who hope that the worst is now behind us. Days on market are better than the previous month (but worse than a year ago) and inventory is up from last month but almost the same – just a little less – than a year ago. It’s a mixed bag.
The next batch of info comes via my MLS, which I pulled together using a new tool, the Realtors Property Resource. What I like about this set is that it includes distressed properties (banked owned homes or REOs as well as short sales and pre-foreclosures).
If the lack of new notices of default continues, we’ll see a lot of improvement in the Willow Glen market.
Next let’s look at the data provided by Altos Research (which uses list prices rather than sales prices). This is helpful as it views the listing activity by price quartile. That is, you can see that “the market” for the top tier or luxury homes in Willow Glen is behaving a bit differently from entry level houses in the same general area.
First, the median list price for San Jose 95125 (which covers about 90% or more of Willow Glen), going back as far as 2005:
It looks rather dismal, taken historically, until you pause to note the recent and very welcome uptick.
Next, the same data but broken down by price quartile – I think it is very interesting that the top tier of pricing there is at almost the same point as it was at the beginning of this time period. That certainly isn’t true for the other groups!
Right now the three lower price ranges seem to be moving up while the luxury home prices are moving the opposite direction.
Same data but just the last one year – not so dramatic:
So how’s the market? If your house or the one you want to purchase is a short sale in the highest pricing strata, the market is unduly soft. If your home is a regular sale in a lower price point, it may be completely different.
When I work with sellers and buyers on “their” market, I run the numbers every which way, but tailored to the home they own or wish to own – the schools, the price point, the sale type, how many distressed homes are nearby etc. The market is not one monolithic creature, but instead is a patchwork of many micro markets.
For information on your micro-market, please contact me! Should we decide to work together in buying or selling your home, I will provide you current and pinpointed market information.